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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    I get it man. If we trend E today....put a fork in another one. NAM is notably west from most other guidance, and may be an outlier....or a trendsetter. We find out in next couple hours.
  2. pasnownut
    also a bit slower in progression from 6z Every little bit helps as this thing goes boom.
  3. pasnownut
    NAM still trying to figure out which bundle of energy to put it's L stamp on...lol it moves NNW from there to 200 miles off mouth of DE bay and at 75 is 100 miles West of 6z. This isnt done yet gang.
  4. pasnownut
    Guessing that's because of the arctic boundary pressing/interacting w/ coastal, and causing sharp cutoff. 500's are once again a bit more neg tilt and should help to tuck the LP closer to coast, but that boundary likely is culprit IMO
  5. pasnownut
    God I wish the NAM went beyond 84. We would likely all be a tad more giddy. Cuts back a bit on the NS precip, but makes up for it w/ a really nice SLP just off NC VA coast and is notably south of GFS. Verbatim it would give the coastal time to get crankin. REALLY like the look. Here's to hopin the rest of the 0z's keep this trend going.
  6. pasnownut
    It sure keeps hope alive...and hope the 0z's dont buck that trend.
  7. pasnownut
    Yeah that wouldnt take much of a shift West to get a bunch of folks in the game. I wont be up for the Euro, but were countin on you.
  8. pasnownut
    It was aiming to be a crowd pleaser. Such a tease.... Nicely tucked at 84.
  9. pasnownut
    or that orangish blob NW. Plenty of time so all options exist, but to your point, purples would be just fine....
  10. pasnownut
    Yeah, I'm not remotely worried about ratios yet. We need the storm first, but it looks like chances are increasing at something appreciable for some/many.
  11. pasnownut
    thats about 2 moves away from me staying home from cabin (snowmobiling) and riding around here.
  12. pasnownut
    Solid trends W today. All we can ask for at this juncture. at 0z my house had 4.3. Using this for qpf distribution purposes and not for perty colors.
  13. pasnownut
    Euro @96 slp is 978 and cranking off coast. Will be anxious to see what the Ens guidance shows for MSLP mean. Precip into eastern 1/3 of Pa
  14. pasnownut
    @90 Euro is a bit better looking at 500's, with a little more neg tilt. Surface close to 6z
  15. pasnownut
    Good to see you out enjoying it....and not stuck looking at models.. Enjoy.
  16. pasnownut
    In looking a bit deeper, this is also a good sign. Quite a few tucked/inland. This give us a chance at further corrections West. Verbatim it is east of the op by a tad, so we'll take whatever good we can get.
  17. pasnownut
    If only life could be filled with happy endings............
  18. pasnownut
    CMC at 90-96 is slightly quicker and NNE w/ SLP. at 96 it now has qpf into Allentown and I'm likely smokin cirrus. It really bombs out and is east of GFS SLP. Its in line w/ other nooners, and if nothing helps, narrows goalposts a bit. Didnt hurt the trends of today.
  19. pasnownut
    Sorry to hear your are tied, up. We'll try to reel it in for ya. Not sure what you mean wrt coastal being east tho. Verbatim its still quite a fish storm at our latitude. We need it to tuck in a bit more which throws the wester QPF back to CTP and gives you and i the wiggle room I think you are talking bout.
  20. pasnownut
    Totally agree.
  21. pasnownut
    at 5 days out (yesterday), these kinds wobbles are normal. Unfortunately the wobbles havent gone our way this year..lol
  22. pasnownut
    Yeah I know they too are a bit starved. Good for them. Friends were sledding in NY 2 weekends ago and said it sucked. Really feel for those that rely on the snow biz.
  23. pasnownut
    100% agree. 2-4 IS a big win for many in LSV. I'll gladly take in hopes that the next one...or one after that...whatevs....gets me in the jackzone.
  24. pasnownut
    @96 and 102 it is about 100 miles W of 6z. Thats what we need to see. IF we get a couple more ticks W, its a nice event for many here. Not saying its happening, but its the trend we need. 500's look notably better (not there yet), but sharper/more neg tilt. I'll take this as a good step.
  25. pasnownut
    yep at 84 it is slightly west and 90 it carries that same theme. Precip panels responded well to interaction w/ arctic boundary. I think if one sets reasonable expectations, we might eek out our first legit WWA or low end (easters) Warning event if we can keep this tracking a bit further west. Any better interaction w/ arctic boundary likely gives mood snows for many here.
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