pasnownut

Look at the ensemble loops pal....IF GFS suite has a clue...it says big blue trough building in the east. Its a tough call as to which models to go w/ for sure, but I'd lean to ens, at D8ish stuff. JMO's.

See....told ya I'm in good company. Nothing like raking(mowing) leaves on a fall day w/ a beer that stays cold (actually they never get warm in my hands ) or bringing wood down. Going in for homemade soup and watching a game late afternoon....Its the good stuff IMO.

GFS Op vs ensemble GEPS is the warmer of the 2 ens, so I put it here to show that I'm not trying to wishcast. GEFS is 49 over our area.

then i consider myself in good company.... I've got thick skin, can take a joke, and have been called far worse. NBD

We were cut from the same cloth...its how I've always thought about late fall/early winter. Its the best

I dont know why some of us wierdos love a dull and cool/cold late november day....but man I sure do. For me I think it's the lead up to the holiday season....and the best time for snow to stick. I know it defy's normal thinking of bright and sunny days, but it's probably my most enjoyable time of year.

Enough to plow in Montague NY. I've stayed there quite a few times, and if ever there is a place that it wants to snow....this is the spot. http://www.northernchateau.com/camgd.php?updatefreq=5&camsite=59&cam=1

I also saw pics of snow on soc. media in northern Lycoming/Potter border area (Black Forest Inn).

28-29 on way into office. Also not a big fan of DS, but when it comes, it's just another step towards show time....so that makes me ok w/ it.

Harsh...?? Huh? I've seen far worse things posted that are laughed at...especially when lol is applied, ya know...in humor.

are you part Neanderthal? lol I like the cold, but my new woodstove has been fired up 3 evenings already.

I dont think many are questioning the forecast part...as much as all of the ways out in the risk part. In fairness if those risks were applied in many locals, one could have a "way out" of not verifying. IMO that risk part is akin to them being wrong half of the time and still having a job, if ya know what I'm getting at. I wish I could go at my sales projections like that....but I can't.

wow. ya think trainer will turn on the heat??

truth told, that risk part didnt sound like horst. He ususally throw it out there and sees what sticks. Glad to hear it wasnt him. He's better than that.

I was just thinking the same. The risk part takes away much of what they put into the forecast part. That kind of forecast/risk assessment thrown on this site is usually one that takes a beating. Remove the risk part, and if verified would be impressive (or not if you are a snow weenie). I'm going to look at what last year wasnt to be vs how it turned out (better) and just hope for another surprise year. No matter, I'll view 10+ day maps with little weight until something tells me otherwise. edit-and for any that think I'm showing bias, show me a forecast that says get shovels ready....and put a pile of risk factors into it...and I'll view it just the same as Horsts.

was looking at 511 cams to see if your western pals might have gotten some flakes, but couldnt find any.

Yeah, thats true but I called it a T to be safe. 46-47 on car thermo at lunch here in etown.

and for our snowhounds to the north. Another T in the books. http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm

https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/canaan-valley-resort-midstation Keep looking pal. Looks like a few cams still show flurries but was nice a bit earlier. Thats an official T in da books for them.

My ass would be long gone...out in the cold, if I used mid 50's as a heat on standard. Snowing in Davis and Ghent. For you fact checkers, here are the cams. https://www.resortcams.com/west-virginia-ski-cams/

Hope yall had a good weekend. Saturday was brighter than expected and Sunday ended nicely after a rather dreary (and expected) start. Looking forward to hearing who sees the first flakes in the next week.

NAM continues to "dryslot" us, so no matter how you came about it....you win. I dont think the sun shows, but verbatim MSLP rots away over the buckeye state as a jump to an off coast solution leaves us "jipped" here. Truth told, I'd be glad to see your thoughts verify. I'm tired of wet weekends...

we had multiday rains up north last week. my guess is that ground water tables are getting to aoa normal, and less absorption going on. Dunno.

noticed on more recent runs somewhat of a miller B type progression s/ stalling primary and eventual secondary pop. Once can also see qpf distribution sorta taking on east central pa jip zone/dryslot of sorts. 3k illustrates it pretty well. IF thats the case, then Canderson could find an easier path to victory.

I was being a bit sarcastic....shocker....I know I hope PSU wins every game, but dont feel they are firing on all cylinders...coach included. I thought he'd never leave this year, but may be wrong as it sounds like he might be half checked out already....sure hope not. I wont root for him at USC like I do Andy Ried and the chiefs.