pasnownut

He's on point. This one has a bunch of moving parts to sort out. If were smart, we'll temper expectations no matter what, and hope to be pleasantly surprised, instead of moderately underwhelmed.

Wheres the 100 mile bump when you need it....oh the good ol days

Congrats. Underwhelmed for many of us, so we get it. Agreed abt this weekend. If we can get a refresher, it'll be nice. Pattern showing signs of relax beyond week 2, so maybe when that happens we score something notable. Not sure where we go beyond that but if MJO gets to 3 w/ other tellies as modeled, wouldnt be great for "pack retention". I'll just enjoy the next 2 weeks and see where we go from there.

RGEm also had 4 SLP's at 78, so me thinks its having a bit of trouble figuring out where this pops. i'll root the norther one on.

German house model kickin off HH with a bang. Tryin to join weekend party

Many of us have been mal nourished in our appetite for snow, so as we were close enough and we often see surprises, its not surprising IMO. Its all good, and part of the fun. Onto the next one. Hoping this weekend can work out.

for us amateurs, the model parade is largely the best medium to base our guesses off of. Sprinkle in telies/ base state (ENSO), knowledge of climo and whatever other tools us rookies use. It IS the fun on a weather disco board IMO. We get to throw our thoughts in without any bashing from public....just from fellow weather geeks. Like you, I'm totally cool w/ that. While we should have payed better attention to northern fringe on this one, the true CTP'rs overperformed as forcing set up north of us, so one persons epic fail, is anothers quiet little victory. Had that forcing been a bit closer, many 3-6 calls may have worked out a bit better. Thats the fun of this hobby. Figurin that shit out.

speaking of Icon, it is in the souther camp w/ 0z Euro. Strung out n never pops, just rolls along and out SE coast.

loop the 500's and you'll see why.

trough orientation is still pos tilted (progressive) and not negative.

As presented, coastals typcically do have a sharp West gradient. Not atypical. Start looking at 500/700s to get an idea of trough axis, and that can add a clue as to how qpf distribution may look. Get trough more neg tilted and it goes up n not out. Thats what we wanna root for, especially if you are on western side of this

I say to freinds...we've become a point n click society. we see we click we get. no questions. Thats now engrained in most facets of many peeps existence and is an undeniable fact.

Now that most models have something to look at, yeah it may be a fun week to see how this shakes out. Euro furthest S, but plenty of time for good or bad. it did pretty well w/ this one, so one needs to keep that in mind as the next one takes shape. I've really not looked in depth as ive been focused on today (and other stuff at home).

add CMC to the ones to watch column.

You keep ramblin all you want pal. it's literally like you went in my head to write this. You get an atta boy as well.

oh shit......GFS is at it again. Game back on for 6 hrs anyway. Truth told, there are several models showing next weekends potential, and if we can get NS and SS to play in tandem. Boom time.

is there a 1000% button. If so, hit it for me. Well stated. Enjoy your 4". Sounds like 2" is what our area is seeing.

why dont you throw your thoughs out there like many of us do? You pooh pooh much, but say little as to why. That constant negative undertone adds little to the convo.

Bubbles and SC crew are definitely in a better spot for afternoon/evening. We've been on the fringe for it, and model depended can smell it, but may not see it as it collapes when it gets east of the river. Enough spread to not discount, and by HH I'm sure we'll see whos the haves and whos the have nots. Mood flakes is my bar for later.

I'm just going to add a bit to this. You are totally on point here. Models are tools that are used in tandem w/ a myriad of "tools" including climatology and have known biases. We ALL know this. I really get chapped when peeps come in....add little/nothing as to what they think may be right or wrong, and just bash. Guess its always easier and more convenient to blame someone (or something) else. CTP did a nice job here.

That has been modelled so its clearly an option. Looks like later on things start back up a bit. Well we hope so anyway.

wife headed there this weekend with gal pals. She told me to shussh last night when I spoke of the weekend biggin potential. Sounds like sheel have snow otg no matter.

nice to see nooner NAM showing backfilling as 500 vort pass occurs later. Mood snow for much of the day is fine w/ me. edit. most mesos look decent for rest of the day mood snows. Win.

I hope my backyard in akron is under same band

Really rippin here in etown. Just need this for the next few hours or my 3" min is in trouble.