CentralNC

Border VA counties might be the exception.

Certainly very possible.

Heavy snow discussion from WPC ...Southern Appalachians to the Northeast... Days 2/3... The aforementioned trough moving east across the southern Plains Saturday will cross the far southern Appalachians Saturday night and turn northeast up the front side of the main trough and off the Northeastern Seaboard Sunday/Sunday night. Perhaps the 00Z guidance has brought about a reasonable consensus solution with a track over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday morning, with the surface low pressure tracking along the Carolina Coast with typical biases of a faster GFS solution and preference to the similar 00Z ECMWF/NAM/UKMET. Going forward, the parent wave will be in the CONUS raob network which will hopefully limit further track shifts. While track is in better agreement, there is still thermal and intensity uncertainty. Marginal thermal profiles over the southern/central Mid-Atlantic likely limits moderate snow rates to where low level frontogenesis and associated mesoscale bands set up. These are currently progged over southeast VA to the southern Delmarva Saturday night into Sunday morning. Strong jet dynamics allow the low to quickly shift northeast off the Northeastern Seaboard Sunday into Sunday night with some northern stream trough supporting mainly light snow into interior New England Sunday afternoon/evening. Day 2.5 snow probabilities for 2 or more inches are low to moderate from the southern Appalachians all the way through central New England and moderate for New England on Day 3. The heaviest snow is likely to be in the southern Appalachians with low Day 2 probabilities for 4 or more inches over southwest VA and western NC and more low probabilities across New England on Day 3.

outside of the mtns, you can cut those snow totals on maps down by at least 1/2 imo

Raleigh at least mentions some accums in their afternoon AFD.

They will change in their afternoon packages mostly likely.

@msuwx Care to weigh in on these trends?

maybe it will help keep stuff from going OTS

Models playing with peoples minds. Groundhog day AmericanWx style. Yearly occurrence!

This winter blows. I would just as soon have temps +15 and full sun instead of all these close calls.

Not where I sit but I'm willing to wait to see if Fab Feb comes through before passing judgement.

there have been flurries off and on for the last hour in Lewisville.

Watch it miss us to the south...

WPC short range discussion - https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd mentions faster onset

I suspect they do not trust the QPF forecasts on the models. I have to say I am little suspect myself. Sometimes these Miller B transfers do not bring the goods like they are supposed to here in the middle.

Aptly named thread!

Nope, Davie is in GSP

So GSP gives Statesville/Mooresville a WSW but Davie county (right beside of me), nothing. Interesting. And I don't mean nothing falling, just not watches or any kind. I know they will change that tomorrow, but kinda strange.

I'd cut those totals in half, but still somewhat formidable.

For Raleigh area proper I would agree. Not sure yet back here in the NW piedmont. That's some pretty dry air hanging around here Sunday morning. If precip comes in early enough I have seen it take several hours to go above freezing.

I don't watch the mets on TV but the few I follow on Twitter have definitely mentioned it. Tim Buckley, Van Denton to name a couple.

Maybe your farm won't...

I would not count on that. Backed snow on a miller B is a losing bet.

The CAD, even if in-situ,should be pretty significant in the NW NC Piedmont.

Flurries here in the western piedmont