CentralNC

Shocked. RAH not quite giving up yet - at least in my neck of the woods. Monday through Tuesday: Things get a bit more interesting Monday into Tuesday as models are finally hinting at a bit more energy/amplification aloft. A heavy dose of mid-level perturbations and height falls embedded within a strengthening southern-stream jet could possibly start spilling into our area Monday through Tuesday. With some colder air expected to be in place by Tuesday, ptype concerns may arise. For now, will continue to mention likely rain with slight chance snow early Tuesday for the northern two-thirds of the CWA. However, this surely could change as we get closer to early next week.

Which Saturday are we talking about?

This map pretty much echoes what I have thought all along about this one. Who knows if it ends up being reality or not. All I know is systems like this have a hard time overcoming truly arctic air on the fringes.

Sad, but probably true for most of Central NC

Raleigh folks must be asleep. Y'all gonna get sticking snow later this evening. Check out the NAM

Agree mods. This is coming into view now. Need a @Brick Tamlandthread

You can see the model confusion level for the NWS by reading my official forecast and discussion. Personally, this sure feels like to me that you could draw a line from Augusta to Raleigh. All points there and east will see freezing precip of some type. Sharp cutoff to the northwest. Usually screws me here, but that's ok. Our southern and eastern bros need to cash in this winter.

RAH extended .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 415 PM Thursday... On Saturday morning a low pressure system just off the FL/GA coast will continue to deepen through the day as it skirts off the Mid- Atlantic coastal waters. A strong cold front stretching across much of the Mississippi Valley will be approaching the Mid-Atlantic region bringing a chance of rain through much of the day Saturday. While the moisture and rain from the coastal low will impact areas in the Coastal Plain and portions of the Sandhills, the approaching front will bring rain to the western portions of the region. For much of the day Saturday expect scattered to numerous periods of rain with perhaps a lull Saturday evening for portions of the Piedmont. As the front pushes through the region late Saturday night early Sunday morning the rush of colder dry air will filter in behind. As the precip is pushed out early Sunday morning, a rain snow mixture beginning along the VA/NC border could occur. By the end of the event, Sunday afternoon the rain/snow mix line could expand southward along and north of US-64. After the sunsets temps will continue to drop increasing chances fro the change over to snow as the precip moves out of the region late Sunday evening. Best chance for all snow will be north of the Triangle,but west of I95, with the rain/snow mix continuing for much of the northern coastal plain region. Cold arctic high pressure will build in with the coldest temperatures of the season Sunday night temperatures after the precip moves out. Sunday night temperatures will quickly drop into the 20s for much of the region by midnight and wide spread teens across the Piedmont region for the lows Monday morning. While these low temperatures are dangerous, wind chills in the single digits are also expected. The Sandhills and portions of the Coastal Plain regions will see temps fall into the low 20s Sunday night with wind chills in the low/mid teens. Cold temperatures will continue for at least the next 72 hours in most areas. For example areas around Raleigh will see around 86 hours of temperatures below freezing from Sunday night to Thursday afternoon. Cold dry air will be in place Monday and much of Tuesday with highs in the mid 20s NW to near 30 SE. Lows will be in the low teens to near 20 in most areas. Again wind chills will be in the single digits for Monday and Tuesday mornings. Tuesday afternoon another weather system is expected to move into the region. While models are still inconsistent with the track of the parent low that would fuel the precip and p-type, ensembles have shown there might be enough moisture in the atmosphere to produce some measurable snow Tuesday afternoon and overnight. The cold temperatures are in place, but the big question will be will there be enough moisture along side the cold air. Will keep a close watch on the developing low and expected track over the next couple days.

I have a feeling trends will go our way today.

Yep, looks cold and dry for sure. Maybe ice after that.

DT is on the case apparently

We'll post pictures!

More like gluttons for punishment.

Oh yeah this will wake up the board