wxeyeNH

If it is upgraded at 5pm to a hurricane (which would be my guess) can they super impose a hurricane watch over a tropical storm warning for areas up the coast? Don't know if that can be done?

They knew this afternoon would be the critical period, would it get it's act together at the last moment as some models suggested so just wonder how they can have a 4-6 hour gap at the most important time?

Just saw on the tropical thread on the main board that no recon going in till 730pm? That seems nuts with a 5pm important advisory coming out as it approaches the east coast and seems to be getting it's act together.

I think Isaias now warrants it's own thread. Just made one up. Could be an over achiever really getting it's act together this afternoon. Why don't we take conversation over there.

I think this could be an over achiever Discuss....

As I say over and over on this board, Im not Met but to me Isaias really look like he is getting his act together. Sat Vis looks impressive and radar showing wrapping around the center. Perhaps this is going to go through a brief period of pretty rapid deepening? This is sure not a naked swirl coming up the coast. I wonder if this is going to be an overachiever? So many SNE storms go SE of us but a storm accelerating north up the coast and going just west on this track will surprise some. I think this will be a big overachiever and I don't usually say that.

Really clean tropical air in NNE this morning. I have great visibility, stiff south wind here on the hill. 75/65F. I always like airmasses before a TC that goes just west. Filled up geny with gas just in case. I could see some 45mph gusts on my hill. Need the rain, not the wind

Isaias is starting to look better to me. Deep convection is wrapping around the eye feature. Still moving slight west of north but the turn soon to help with shear. Recon had pressure at 1001 and now back down a bit to 1000.

Recon having fun doing loops around center. 996.4 so far

Recon is just going center. If Im reading it right 999.1mb Sure not strenghtening

Doesn't look too bad on first vis. CDO has expanded west. On radar some nice rotation around center. Surely doesn't look like a classic cane but have seen worse TS's

I never do good with NW gusts because of my hill and trees but I have unlimited to horizen exposure to the south. No trees around the house that can do damage so it will be fun. Just need to get gas for the geny. At least comfortable weather later this week. We have not had any big thunderstorm wind in my area for a few years so even 25-35mph with lollies to 40mph can cause power outages. Unlike a quick gusts front a few hours of winds like this are going to lead to scattered power outages.

Recon just went through 996.3 if Im reading it right

I see 995mb from recon flight

Yeah, Euro is SE and stronger. Pretty close to Jersey shore then over NYC and up to about Worcester. 993mb (29.32) over NYC. That would be a pretty strong TS if it verified.

Yeah, what specifically are you looking for with Isaias?

Me too. I'm in a better position than you. I don't care about a few 35mph gusts just a 3" soak. I'm excited for that but some of the trends are so far west it may be VT/NY. It would be interesting if Isaias could relocate under convection. Then the center has a much better chance of staying offshore and a stronger storm

Looking at the Euro there is a strip of rain through New England while Isaias is still way down the coast. Would this be considered a PRE and are models like the Euro able to pick up such an event? Euro ends at 12Z Wed but there is still more precip to come. Looks like 3-5" Western CN, West Central Mass into NH

I've checked this cam out a few times today. Surf has really come up Ft Lauderdale Also look at some of those dews 78-79F! https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/lauderdalebythesea/?cam=windjammer

First outer bands coming ashore MIA/FLL Looking forward to a couple of inches of rain up here. 996/1000mb low coming up from the tropics should give some good rain to the west of the track.

Okay, he's naked. So what should the NHC do? Immediately change Hurricane Watch/Warnings to TS warnings? I hate the cry Wolf stuff. Even if Isaias refires convection I very much doubt hurricane conditions anyplace in Florida. Still 1-3" for New England and a change the storm will get its act together somewhat but with a weaker storm a westerly track and more change inland over Florida vs over water. Next.....

Recon just went through the center. If Im reading it right pressure down to 985.1 from 991 last recon.

It's perfect for us. Maybe for the weenies we can get a quick spin up or two over SE New England.

I really like the Euro track since it gets me into the heavy rain as the storm moves through New England. A good 2-4" soak. Thankfully there seems to be enough dry air and wind shear to keep Isaias from becoming something much stronger as a track like this would not be good for the east coast.