wxeyeNH

I never do good with NW gusts because of my hill and trees but I have unlimited to horizen exposure to the south. No trees around the house that can do damage so it will be fun. Just need to get gas for the geny. At least comfortable weather later this week. We have not had any big thunderstorm wind in my area for a few years so even 25-35mph with lollies to 40mph can cause power outages. Unlike a quick gusts front a few hours of winds like this are going to lead to scattered power outages.

Recon just went through 996.3 if Im reading it right

I see 995mb from recon flight

Yeah, Euro is SE and stronger. Pretty close to Jersey shore then over NYC and up to about Worcester. 993mb (29.32) over NYC. That would be a pretty strong TS if it verified.

Yeah, what specifically are you looking for with Isaias?

Me too. I'm in a better position than you. I don't care about a few 35mph gusts just a 3" soak. I'm excited for that but some of the trends are so far west it may be VT/NY. It would be interesting if Isaias could relocate under convection. Then the center has a much better chance of staying offshore and a stronger storm

Looking at the Euro there is a strip of rain through New England while Isaias is still way down the coast. Would this be considered a PRE and are models like the Euro able to pick up such an event? Euro ends at 12Z Wed but there is still more precip to come. Looks like 3-5" Western CN, West Central Mass into NH

I've checked this cam out a few times today. Surf has really come up Ft Lauderdale Also look at some of those dews 78-79F! https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/lauderdalebythesea/?cam=windjammer

First outer bands coming ashore MIA/FLL Looking forward to a couple of inches of rain up here. 996/1000mb low coming up from the tropics should give some good rain to the west of the track.

Okay, he's naked. So what should the NHC do? Immediately change Hurricane Watch/Warnings to TS warnings? I hate the cry Wolf stuff. Even if Isaias refires convection I very much doubt hurricane conditions anyplace in Florida. Still 1-3" for New England and a change the storm will get its act together somewhat but with a weaker storm a westerly track and more change inland over Florida vs over water. Next.....

Recon just went through the center. If Im reading it right pressure down to 985.1 from 991 last recon.

It's perfect for us. Maybe for the weenies we can get a quick spin up or two over SE New England.

I really like the Euro track since it gets me into the heavy rain as the storm moves through New England. A good 2-4" soak. Thankfully there seems to be enough dry air and wind shear to keep Isaias from becoming something much stronger as a track like this would not be good for the east coast.

Nice thunderstorm passed right over. Weakened just as it got to me but still some gusty winds and .30" . Another shower now approaching

Quite the Euro run. Storm comes right through SNE. On my Weatherbell gust product (FWIW) it has 70-95mph gusts coming right through Eastern New England from CN to Maine. Just west of the center 4 or 5" of rain falls. Take it with a grain of salt but quite a storm on that track

John, I think of you with the words Bahama blues. I love this when it happens. The sparkling visibility and white sharp Cu towers.

Up and down year for my lawn. Started out great. Brown out by the end of June. Then a quick 3.25" of rain and it looked great again. Now with lack of rain it's starting to brown out. I wouldn't mind the tropical system in the Atlantic to come up here as a strong depression and give New England a few inches of water. Lots of haves and have nots this season.

I guess Plymouth ( NH) selectman are going to vote for a mask mandate. It was on WMUR. Meanwhile Bob's sister from Florida who has lived with her boyfriend of 10 years decided to get married. Since they are originally from NH they planned an outdoor wedding at Lake Sunapee in August. They have not cancelled it and it makes me upset that the contingent is coming up. I don't want to go. I hope it doesn't rain and they decide to move in inside. Don't know how you wear a mask and social distance at a wedding. They better not ask us to take off masks for photos. Such is family politics. So selfish in my opinion they are doing this!

Well that wasn't much. .09" very light rain. Breaks west.

This thing is so contagious. Not a big deal if you are under 40 but scary as heck for older folks. VT has mandatory mask now so NH is only holdout in the NE. Live free or die has new meaning

74/71 Moderate rain About .06" so far. Doesn't look like it last long but I'll take what I can get

I had 2.2" of precip this month so far of which .90" fell on July 8th. I'm in that 125% of average. It's so hit and miss with convection. Last summer I missed every direct thunderstorm and so far the same this year. The last time we had a true thunderstorm (shelf cloud, gusty winds that bring down twigs and sheets of rain with lightning and thunder) was 3 years ago. Other places like Brian just to my SSE has had several of these. I better keep my mouth shut because just in spite over the next week we will have a severe thunderstorm with power outages and limbs down.

A few thoughts on different subjects. Getting dry in my town of Bridgewater NH. Only .25" from the convection. Training convection just north of me produced lots of qpf in Plymouth NH I like these treads of potentials even if they are several days yonder. Always something to look for Speaking of convection take a look at the picture below. A Met friend in Tennessee took it yesterday. A hot tower rapidly building. Pushed the contrail up in elevation before the cap cloud even got there even though it was clear air. As far as tropical systems go up here. West of the track is more noreasterish with flooding potential. To see a big wind event you need a strong trof just west of us to yank it north quick with the center passing west.

Missed so many showers the past 24 hours. Grand total .23". No rain forest in my hood. Where r u? Lake Winni?