wxeyeNH

Its 730pm on the 26th. I have been watching an intense thunderstorm just sit on the Spine in Central VT. It's been there for a couple of hours. Must be some huge rain totals in one small area.

Our window boxes look great. Another week or two and then it is all downhill

It's trying but not making it to me 20 miles to your north. Only 1.33" for the month

After 11" of rain in July it is turning out to be a very dry August. No rain for the first 1/2 of the month and only 1.33" since. About .45" with Henri. Rain bands are trying to get up as far as the Lakes Region but so far have dried up as they get up here. Still the chance this evening that they will.

Don't know if I will make it into the rain showers that are trying to rotate in. It is interesting to watch. If not the storm total for me will be .43" and the highest gust on my south facing hill was 27mph.

Saw this on facebook. Hudson Mass.

Doesn't the pressure fall first and then the winds pick up?

984mb and towers going up all around the eye means (to me) that this could go through RI this evening. Do any models have Henri getting down to the 970's? This morning I thought this was going to under achive. Now it's going to overachieve. So take winds and surge up from model output?

Well after days of waiting we finally have an eye. With deep convection wrapping around and nocturnal maximum and gulf stream this could finally make Henri a bonified cane.

I would have agreed with you up until around noon. Now it definitely looks like it's getting it's act together.

Seems like lots of changes the past couple of hours with Henri's structure. It looked like lots of dry air was eroding the CDO but in the last hour the circulation is tightening up. For the first time you can really see how the inner core is getting it's act together. Could this be the start of RI? HHunters are enroute. Will be interesting to see what they find.

For a hurricane, Henri looks like crap right now. Dry air ingesting from the SW? Sure not a classic looking cane coming up the coast. I thought it would look much better today.

Pure tropical air. Bahama blues!

Just checking in. I have not been following the thread today other than a couple of glances. So many weenie type posts. Henri looks like crap right now. I would have thought that we would have some good strengthening by this time. The storm looks small geographically and wagons are west. May turn out to be a pretty okay weekend out on the Cape. My thinking is this will be a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane at best. Not one of the "big" ones. For that you need a system screaming northbound in front of a trough. Still time for Henri to get it's act together but keep expectations low if you are a big storm lover. I think of Tip in weather situations like this. A nice clean airmass with Bahama blue skies with fast Cu moving by. Definitely will feel tropical.

I am really surprised that the models are not bullish. Gulf Stream and no strong wind shear yet not a deep storm.

Wow 18Z Euro. Really hooks left. MV then towards Worcester. Puts Metro Boston into the high winds.

Sunday midday would be landfall. Tropical storm/hurricane/tropical storm watches issued 48 hours in advance so I would expect watches to be issued tomorrow on the 11am advisory unless something changes.

Henri is begining to look much better on sat. visible. Becoming more symmetrical and convection seems to be expanding to the north. It's winning the battle against shear. GFS should be interesting.

I'm surprised as weak as the Euro has it the track is still over the Cape and a bit further west than 6Z. Brings rain well west

I don't think Henri is going to be a big deal. Trend is now east. (I don't look at the NAM for tropical cyclones). Henri is not being yanked north in front of a late season trough so it will weaken as it approaches. Unless someone gets into the right quad which is becoming less likely there is not going to be a ton of wind. Coastal high tides might be the biggest factor. Still plenty of time for changes but set your expectations low on this one.

This is a good question. I don't know what are the best setups for PREs

18Z vs. 12Z GFS

I could see Henri come north towards New England, stall out south of us but far enough so that it does not cause extensive disruption and slowly spin down as it waits for the high to move out and then resumes a NE motion. In any event a path 200 miles SE of Nantucket seems less and less likely.

Tides look pretty high on the 23/24th 5 days out, threat increasing. Think Henri deserves it's own thread. Just made one.

GFS comes west again. Threat to Southern New England Increasing. Discuss