wxeyeNH

Well after days of waiting we finally have an eye. With deep convection wrapping around and nocturnal maximum and gulf stream this could finally make Henri a bonified cane.

I would have agreed with you up until around noon. Now it definitely looks like it's getting it's act together.

Seems like lots of changes the past couple of hours with Henri's structure. It looked like lots of dry air was eroding the CDO but in the last hour the circulation is tightening up. For the first time you can really see how the inner core is getting it's act together. Could this be the start of RI? HHunters are enroute. Will be interesting to see what they find.

For a hurricane, Henri looks like crap right now. Dry air ingesting from the SW? Sure not a classic looking cane coming up the coast. I thought it would look much better today.

Pure tropical air. Bahama blues!

Just checking in. I have not been following the thread today other than a couple of glances. So many weenie type posts. Henri looks like crap right now. I would have thought that we would have some good strengthening by this time. The storm looks small geographically and wagons are west. May turn out to be a pretty okay weekend out on the Cape. My thinking is this will be a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane at best. Not one of the "big" ones. For that you need a system screaming northbound in front of a trough. Still time for Henri to get it's act together but keep expectations low if you are a big storm lover. I think of Tip in weather situations like this. A nice clean airmass with Bahama blue skies with fast Cu moving by. Definitely will feel tropical.

I am really surprised that the models are not bullish. Gulf Stream and no strong wind shear yet not a deep storm.

Wow 18Z Euro. Really hooks left. MV then towards Worcester. Puts Metro Boston into the high winds.

Sunday midday would be landfall. Tropical storm/hurricane/tropical storm watches issued 48 hours in advance so I would expect watches to be issued tomorrow on the 11am advisory unless something changes.

Henri is begining to look much better on sat. visible. Becoming more symmetrical and convection seems to be expanding to the north. It's winning the battle against shear. GFS should be interesting.

I'm surprised as weak as the Euro has it the track is still over the Cape and a bit further west than 6Z. Brings rain well west

I don't think Henri is going to be a big deal. Trend is now east. (I don't look at the NAM for tropical cyclones). Henri is not being yanked north in front of a late season trough so it will weaken as it approaches. Unless someone gets into the right quad which is becoming less likely there is not going to be a ton of wind. Coastal high tides might be the biggest factor. Still plenty of time for changes but set your expectations low on this one.

This is a good question. I don't know what are the best setups for PREs

18Z vs. 12Z GFS

I could see Henri come north towards New England, stall out south of us but far enough so that it does not cause extensive disruption and slowly spin down as it waits for the high to move out and then resumes a NE motion. In any event a path 200 miles SE of Nantucket seems less and less likely.

Tides look pretty high on the 23/24th 5 days out, threat increasing. Think Henri deserves it's own thread. Just made one.

GFS comes west again. Threat to Southern New England Increasing. Discuss

12Z GFS hooks NW into Central LI and then almost stalls before moving NE again and going out to sea just S of Boston. Got to look at the tide levels for several high tides.

Hi Alex, Hope you and the family had a good summer. What would you guess as your first frost date? Around September 1rst?

Cold front is through. Rain missed about a mile north. After 10.56" of rain in July I have only received .03" of rain this month. Pretty crazy!

Earlier this summer a bear got one of our apple saplings. I am seeing bears at least once a week now in our pastures. They are definitely becoming more numerous.

Well it 'was' our favorite peach tree. At least the bear left some fertilizer

Just a quick rant about the awful forecast presentation I just watched on NH only TV station WMUR. Eric Weglarz 5pm forecast went on and on about the heavy rain threat. I don't know where he gets his graphics but I don't see anything bringing heavy rain into the state except for the extreme SE. Never did he say most of the state is going to stay dry. If I watched this from my area, Newfound Lake I would sure think we have a very good chance of heavy rain. It's not going to happen this far NW. Okay, I feel better getting this off my chest.

It's 36 hours away.. 18Z GFS gives me 0.00". 18Z NAM gives me 2.09 Glad it is not winter.

Ended up with 1.41". That is the biggest rainfall this summer. Our pond is now 1/2" filled. Usually it is dry by now. Unlike most of you I am happy for the 10" over the past month and cool weather. Gardens and lawn look amazing