wxeyeNH

Nice to see you post again. I missed you. You kept me on the straight and narrow!

Living on the edge up here in C/NNE. Living in my nice snowhole just south of the Whites. Any thought as to where the deformation zone might setup? I have seen double maxs in deep storms so maybe I will luck out in my hood.

People know Im into weather up here at Newfound Lake. Been getting messages and texts all day. I see this as no big deal. 3-6"ish. We are on the edge anyhow and downsloping off the Whites kills us. Only caveat is would we be in a deformation zone?

Good Morning I have not been on the forums since last evening. I have not gone back and read the many pages either. Quick thoughts on my layman read of the models without getting into the weeds. Some of last evening and overnight runs were epic There now seems to be a slight shift east again. The models are picking up this double barreled low. The lead one seems to be mucking up the super strong solutions. Just noise differences along the immediate coast but big differences for us on the edge Takeaway I hope this trend with the lead low does not continue and shifts east. On the other hand won't there be a deformation band well inland? Sometimes there is a double max way out west. Maybe for me (Im selfish) that would set up here and along the Conn river valley Enjoy the storm. Going to be an enjoyable ride watching it play out

My prediction. Blizzard Watch will go up. Mass gov will declare state of emergency for Sat. All but essential road travel will be band

Kuchie clown 18Z Euro

I see 964mb Totals qpf

Wow

Snow totals are going to be extremely hard to measure with this storm. People are going to be posting all kinds of wild numbers. I was 13 years old in 1969. I think that was what was called the 100 hour storm. Us kids were able to walk up to the roof of our school building while other areas had bare grass. (Wayland) Drifting was huge.

Ray, how about wind gusts? A 960mb system bombing out must be able to bring in some huge gusts? 1978 was a 984mb storm but had a stronger high pressure to our west/north

The NAM run was just such a thing of beauty. I doubt it will happen as shown but just savor this moment. You wait years to see something like this. The GFS will bring us down a few notches....but if this NAM run were to verify Saturday afternoon Eastern Mass would be around 15, wind gusts over 65 (if my Weatherbell wind gust product is correct) with extremely heavy snow. That would be about as close to a blizzard as we are ever going to get.

Ray, I thought you were on crack yesterday with your forecast. Hope this trends holds for you.

Is this true? Is there evidence the GFS follows the trend of the FV-3?

I have lived in Central NH for 32 years. Last winter was mild. This is more like winters of old, just not much snow.

Just woke up. Took a quick look at the gfs. East. Didn't look at anything else.

18Z Kuchie Clowns Euro vs Nam

Oy...it is the 84 hour NAM but I'm looking for the nearest cliff especially up here. Wouldn't it be ironic if this wiffed for everyone?

I will take my .02" up here and run. I don't see anything exciting with this run. Guess I'm a Debbie for up here. What a storm if this tracked thru the cancel. Still time but I don't like the trends

Nice system to be watching. I have finally learned that when the media broad brushes Central NH they never include the down sloping from the Whites. Plymouth south into my area around Newfound Lake seems to do better in SWFEs. I'm behind in snow totals for the season and not expecting more than 8" even if the system comes closer.

I just wanted to catch up and went through the last many pages to get some Met or semi pro thoughts. With so much being posted in this thread that is not really storm related or "weenie" posts maybe a new post could be made for just the serious analysis of what could be a historic storm. I am not sure how it could be monitored but just a thought?

Biggest Euro run of our lives (until 1am tonight) Hold Serve? Go East? Go West? If it comes in at 955mb on benchmark with a capture media will really start to honk

Here is a comparison of 12Z and 18Z GFS qpf

Just using the Weatherbell site, the GFS for Plymouth NH 12Z 1.32" 18Z .21"

12Z Euro

Euro much weaker. Only 954mb vs 946mb.