wxeyeNH

Flips even up to me. I thought I was safe. Maybe not

If the 18Z NAM was right you would be making it up and a lot more. Not that I love the NAM but the 18Z run was a special one for you, PF and Jspin. I am right on the south edge of heavy snow. I don't care what happens except a ZR storm. I was living in Metro Boston so this house was still in the fixer upper stage but just an immense amount of tree damage. We have had a few since but not like that.

Where does the band of snow setup on the Ukie? Does it keep the Lakes Region snow or does the mix get all the way up to the Whites? I don't have access

I like where I am for this event. I used Weatherbell and they have snow, sleet and freezing rain products. I don't know how accurate the sleet and freezing rain products are but it looks like someone in SNE or the upper Mid Atlantic is going to get a crippling ice storm. This would have a much bigger impact than a 20" powder blizzard. Where that band sets up is the question. Below is based on 12Z GFS run

Just hit 20F. Without wind and bright sun it feels mild out

It has been 6 weeks since I hit 40F. Since then only a few brief times above 32F. Wonder when the next time I will hit 40F again? Brief moderation this week but I don't see a 40F. In fact I don't see a 40F to after mid February. More active storm track and constant cold. This is what makes NNE winters.

Sorry about posting Kuchera. Here is the 10:1 GFS

Could be an interesting event. Start a thread?

Another 20 incher Boston. Someone posted Kuchera. Here is 10:1 12Z GFS

Just saw your post on FB. Kids getting big fast. Although it is a cold January day the sun is starting to have some melting power. Getting to that time of year that the southern exposed banks can even melt when it is well below freezing. Todays model runs are showing about 1.50" of qpf coming up late week. Should be another interesting situation to see how it plays out. Those pesky SNEnglanders have overtaken me in snow totals. Time to take that back. I can take a few more weeks of winter but each year it seems I look forward to spring earlier and earlier.

Off topic but this AMWX server did great. This forum is worth more than the $25 a year. I would be lost without it. Okay time to take the leaf blower out and blow off the 2" or so on the driveway.

4.4F Light snow and some blowing snow. About 2" to 3" What a ride with the models on this one. In my hood every small adjustment changed my snow amounts greatly. It was fun to try to figure out which model run had the most credence. Which one ended up being the best? I guess the GFS was better than the Euro? Thoughts? In any event this storm is an easy cleanup with no wet snow or mix to deal with. Just a regular snowy day for me, nothing out of the ordinary unlike our friends to the southeast. In the end the storm worked out to how I expected it to. Snow of various intensities but I was surprised that the wind was so light all day. The temperature fell all day from 15F at the start of the snow to a low of of 3.7F but now the temperature is actually rising a bit. This was a very cold storm but there was one a few years ago where the temperature was around 0F all day. Now that the visibility has come way up I can look down over Newfound Lake and see that the wind is just howling down the lake creating blowing snow that is hundreds of feet high. I have never seen that but the wind direction must be perfectly lined up with the big lake. I'm always amazed how the settlers in 1795 picked my site to build our house. The wind is so light here while it is howling in all the north facing areas. On to the next event. Seems to be trending colder with a mixed or even an over running ice event. Lots of time for adjustment.

I'm not saying this for Logan but in general snowfall totals with this storm are going to be all over the place. Unless you are a really seasoned observer and know how to do it right a storm with 50mph gusts and temperatures in the teens will make it very hard to accurately do, especially when you get into the 1/10ths of inches.

Fantastic post. 970mb. I wonder what the differences would have been if the center had been just a bit closer and down to the mid 950's as some of the earler model runs this week. Even still an epic storm.

Looking at the visible satellite picture it looks like the storm center is over Cape Cod and moving NNE. That can't be right? Can it? Edit, Roosta just posted the same thing I saw

Quick obs on temperatures. Not Berkshire County is now getting down to around 0F at noon. (Pittsfield -1F) Also Vermont. Amazing cold coming in.

10.7F Vis 1.5 miles light snow Wind N 5 1" Enjoy your storm. Going to be tough to stay on top of the AMWX snowfall board

Great Euro run. 965mb just off the Cape. By the way this run brings snow to every place in New England. From the SW corner of Connecticut to Caribou Maine. Not one person sees a flip or a mix. When was the last time that happened? What a frickin ride this week. Off to bed so I can wake up early. Thanks to all the great analysis.

18Z GFS as compared to 12Z total QPF

Well those old runs with the low in the 950's were beautiful. That would have been a real "wow" if the storm came up just off the Cape with numbers like that. Now the Euro has a 975mb storm. Still a blockbuster if we had not been teased so early with those crazy runs. For my area , Plymouth NH the Euro went from .80 to .30 I have low expectations for my area but still some time for that dual low to consolidate again. Whatever happens it will be a nice storm for many on the forum.

Nice to see you post again. I missed you. You kept me on the straight and narrow!

Living on the edge up here in C/NNE. Living in my nice snowhole just south of the Whites. Any thought as to where the deformation zone might setup? I have seen double maxs in deep storms so maybe I will luck out in my hood.

People know Im into weather up here at Newfound Lake. Been getting messages and texts all day. I see this as no big deal. 3-6"ish. We are on the edge anyhow and downsloping off the Whites kills us. Only caveat is would we be in a deformation zone?

Good Morning I have not been on the forums since last evening. I have not gone back and read the many pages either. Quick thoughts on my layman read of the models without getting into the weeds. Some of last evening and overnight runs were epic There now seems to be a slight shift east again. The models are picking up this double barreled low. The lead one seems to be mucking up the super strong solutions. Just noise differences along the immediate coast but big differences for us on the edge Takeaway I hope this trend with the lead low does not continue and shifts east. On the other hand won't there be a deformation band well inland? Sometimes there is a double max way out west. Maybe for me (Im selfish) that would set up here and along the Conn river valley Enjoy the storm. Going to be an enjoyable ride watching it play out

My prediction. Blizzard Watch will go up. Mass gov will declare state of emergency for Sat. All but essential road travel will be band