wxeyeNH

Off topic but this AMWX server did great. This forum is worth more than the $25 a year. I would be lost without it. Okay time to take the leaf blower out and blow off the 2" or so on the driveway.

4.4F Light snow and some blowing snow. About 2" to 3" What a ride with the models on this one. In my hood every small adjustment changed my snow amounts greatly. It was fun to try to figure out which model run had the most credence. Which one ended up being the best? I guess the GFS was better than the Euro? Thoughts? In any event this storm is an easy cleanup with no wet snow or mix to deal with. Just a regular snowy day for me, nothing out of the ordinary unlike our friends to the southeast. In the end the storm worked out to how I expected it to. Snow of various intensities but I was surprised that the wind was so light all day. The temperature fell all day from 15F at the start of the snow to a low of of 3.7F but now the temperature is actually rising a bit. This was a very cold storm but there was one a few years ago where the temperature was around 0F all day. Now that the visibility has come way up I can look down over Newfound Lake and see that the wind is just howling down the lake creating blowing snow that is hundreds of feet high. I have never seen that but the wind direction must be perfectly lined up with the big lake. I'm always amazed how the settlers in 1795 picked my site to build our house. The wind is so light here while it is howling in all the north facing areas. On to the next event. Seems to be trending colder with a mixed or even an over running ice event. Lots of time for adjustment.

I'm not saying this for Logan but in general snowfall totals with this storm are going to be all over the place. Unless you are a really seasoned observer and know how to do it right a storm with 50mph gusts and temperatures in the teens will make it very hard to accurately do, especially when you get into the 1/10ths of inches.

Fantastic post. 970mb. I wonder what the differences would have been if the center had been just a bit closer and down to the mid 950's as some of the earler model runs this week. Even still an epic storm.

Looking at the visible satellite picture it looks like the storm center is over Cape Cod and moving NNE. That can't be right? Can it? Edit, Roosta just posted the same thing I saw

Quick obs on temperatures. Not Berkshire County is now getting down to around 0F at noon. (Pittsfield -1F) Also Vermont. Amazing cold coming in.

10.7F Vis 1.5 miles light snow Wind N 5 1" Enjoy your storm. Going to be tough to stay on top of the AMWX snowfall board

Great Euro run. 965mb just off the Cape. By the way this run brings snow to every place in New England. From the SW corner of Connecticut to Caribou Maine. Not one person sees a flip or a mix. When was the last time that happened? What a frickin ride this week. Off to bed so I can wake up early. Thanks to all the great analysis.

18Z GFS as compared to 12Z total QPF

Well those old runs with the low in the 950's were beautiful. That would have been a real "wow" if the storm came up just off the Cape with numbers like that. Now the Euro has a 975mb storm. Still a blockbuster if we had not been teased so early with those crazy runs. For my area , Plymouth NH the Euro went from .80 to .30 I have low expectations for my area but still some time for that dual low to consolidate again. Whatever happens it will be a nice storm for many on the forum.

Nice to see you post again. I missed you. You kept me on the straight and narrow!

Living on the edge up here in C/NNE. Living in my nice snowhole just south of the Whites. Any thought as to where the deformation zone might setup? I have seen double maxs in deep storms so maybe I will luck out in my hood.

People know Im into weather up here at Newfound Lake. Been getting messages and texts all day. I see this as no big deal. 3-6"ish. We are on the edge anyhow and downsloping off the Whites kills us. Only caveat is would we be in a deformation zone?

Good Morning I have not been on the forums since last evening. I have not gone back and read the many pages either. Quick thoughts on my layman read of the models without getting into the weeds. Some of last evening and overnight runs were epic There now seems to be a slight shift east again. The models are picking up this double barreled low. The lead one seems to be mucking up the super strong solutions. Just noise differences along the immediate coast but big differences for us on the edge Takeaway I hope this trend with the lead low does not continue and shifts east. On the other hand won't there be a deformation band well inland? Sometimes there is a double max way out west. Maybe for me (Im selfish) that would set up here and along the Conn river valley Enjoy the storm. Going to be an enjoyable ride watching it play out

My prediction. Blizzard Watch will go up. Mass gov will declare state of emergency for Sat. All but essential road travel will be band

Kuchie clown 18Z Euro

I see 964mb Totals qpf

Wow

Snow totals are going to be extremely hard to measure with this storm. People are going to be posting all kinds of wild numbers. I was 13 years old in 1969. I think that was what was called the 100 hour storm. Us kids were able to walk up to the roof of our school building while other areas had bare grass. (Wayland) Drifting was huge.

Ray, how about wind gusts? A 960mb system bombing out must be able to bring in some huge gusts? 1978 was a 984mb storm but had a stronger high pressure to our west/north

The NAM run was just such a thing of beauty. I doubt it will happen as shown but just savor this moment. You wait years to see something like this. The GFS will bring us down a few notches....but if this NAM run were to verify Saturday afternoon Eastern Mass would be around 15, wind gusts over 65 (if my Weatherbell wind gust product is correct) with extremely heavy snow. That would be about as close to a blizzard as we are ever going to get.

Ray, I thought you were on crack yesterday with your forecast. Hope this trends holds for you.

Is this true? Is there evidence the GFS follows the trend of the FV-3?

I have lived in Central NH for 32 years. Last winter was mild. This is more like winters of old, just not much snow.

Just woke up. Took a quick look at the gfs. East. Didn't look at anything else.