wxeyeNH

How much of this is real vs the center moving closer into radar views?

Amazing live TV in Ft Myers. They caught a confirmed tornado passing by a traffic cam.

Hurricane hunters have reported large flocks of birds in the eye. They got stuck from the Yucatan. They are exhausted and will try to land once the circulation goes over Florida. Be on the lookout for them

My 77 year old sister-in-law lives at her 1970s house in Bradenton, Florida. 5 miles inland, 19 feet above sea level. She is staying no matter what I tell her. She even has family in Sanford FL in a new house but she will not go. I did get her to put her car in her garage. It is what it is.

The chances of this happening are probably 1% but could you imagine if this fantasy time frame GFS ever came to fruition? Three huge hurricanes within one month. Heartache, cost and politics...

I'm looking for that ENE turn to begin. I would thought it would have started by now. If the hurricane were to stay south of the projected path I would assume that increases the chances of a landfall slightly further south? Thoughts?

12Z GFS Landfall about 2 or 3 miles south of 06Z position. Southern Tampa Bay 972mb vs 968mb 6Z

I'm trying to visualize what it would look like meteorologically if you were in the middle of a 4nm eye? Wind blowing 175 miles an hour in opposite directions only a couple miles to either side of you. It wouldn't even look like CuB all around you as the towers would be too close. Just a pinhole of clear skies overhead with darkness and noise all around? I assume such a small eye has never been witnessed. There are pictures within Michael's eye near Mexico Beach but the eye was much bigger. 4nm is amazingly small!

i assume this plane will have to finish it's mission soon so we may not know how low it goes before it bombs out. I don't see another plane en route.

Please keep posts to meteorological discussion only. There is the banter thread to ask more general questions. Read more and post less. Thanks

943.6mb. Dropping very fast

Finally RI 946-947mb as of 6pm

AS of around 5:40pm we have a near perfect circular CDO around the eye with overshooting tops in the eye wall. This is bombing out at the worst time. Recon will be in the eye in the next 10 minutes and I bet they find a 945mb storm. Also I would like to add that if you do not have any scientifically useful information please don't post. Read more and post less so this thread doesn't get clogged with useless info.

As of 7pm the hurricane hunter found the pressure just a bit lower. Around 973mb. I don't see evidence of a eye. So no RI yet.

I'm just reading this thread as a non met, but here's my thought. Although everyone is honking at RI including the NHC I'm surprised at how much dry air is still wrapping in this giant gyro. Ss of yet there is not a solid large CDO around the apparent center. I will probably be wrong but maybe we will be lucky and only see a steady modest intensification instead of a 35 or 40mb drop over the next 24 hours.

Didn't Michael that wiped out Mexico Beach go over Tallahassee? That was a Cat 5. Just to the east of the eye is the worst and I don't remember if it went west of the city. This will be scary because unlike Michael it will be dark.

Welcome AStorms. The storm is becoming larger but what you see on the visible satellite is the higher cirrus canopy expanding. That doesn't mean the surface winds are expanding necessarily.

Am I reading the recon right? Down to 986mb?

LLC is not moving SW anymore. Bascially stalled and just starting to move NNW. Thunderstorms are popping up closer and closer to it. I think the real intensification starts very soon once the storms fire right over the LLC. Once they do the low clouds get covered up so we will have to rely on aircraft verses visually as to direction.

What am I missing? As of 11:15 eastern time the LLC seems to becoming more exposed and moving to the SSW. That doesn't seem to indicate immediate strenghtening. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I recorded a T yesterday. September rainfall is .32". The last good rain I received was August 9th. Over the last 30 days I have had .43" Pretty impressive short term drought.

0.00000 on the day. I can almost smell the rain, it is so close. I noticed on the dust roof on the car that a few drops must have fallen at some point. Does a dozen small drops constitute a trace? I don't want it to break my long streak of no rain. Enjoy your rain to everyone to the SE. Feast or famine, for sure.

72F Mostly sunny with refreshing NE breeze. Only 3 days this month we have not hit 70F. Good luck to SE parts of New England getting some rain.

i remember years ago when you posted this part of your lawn trying to get it to come in.

I remember them as a kid when I lived in the Boston area they were very very loud and scary for kids