wxeyeNH

I want to give a shout out to a good friend of mine, Bob Turk who is retiring as an on air weather personality after 49 1/2 years at Ch 13 WJZ-TV in Baltimore. Bob and I grew up in the same neighborhood in the NW suburb of Baltimore. He is 9 years older than me. Like me he is a geography major. Back around 1972 he answered a newspaper ad in the Baltimore Sun as Ch 13 was looking for an on air weather personality. He got the job and has been a staple of Baltimore TV since then. In the days before radar I would frequently call him before going on air to let him know if any thunderstorms were popping up. I would go down to the station frequently and hang out. Bob is not a meteorologist but has enough knowledge to forecast pretty accurately. Growing up and living in the same city also helps. He has a passion for weather and that is what is important in the business (in my opinion). When I graduated collage I decided to relocate to new England. My friends threw me a going away get together and Bob was there. We have maintained a friendship and frequently converse during weather events. Bob is probably the longest on air weather personality and possibly the longest on air personality in the country. (Harvey was probably pretty close) I wish him the best in retirement. He deserves it at 75 years old and being on TV every night.

12Z GFS Landfall Thursday 2am. Just NW of Ft Myers area. 975mb. This position is slightly NW of last run

At 30 hours GFS is a bit west again.

Time sensitive 1030am. High resolution visible shows Ian moving ENE along the north coast of Cuba https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Here is 925mb winds and surface wind gusts at its closest approach to Tampa

Never use the NAM for tropical systems. Never, Never, Never. 12Z NAM is a big shift west vs it's 6Z run

I use Weatherbell for model info. Great product. I am not sure how accurate the GFS wind products are, but this is the wind gusts in mph when Ian makes it closest approach to Tampa (18Z). It almost stalls in this position at around 967mb bring strong south winds into Tampa Bay.

630pm Tropical Tidbit discussion

Great minds think alike as I just posted this.

Looking at the visible satellite picture at 4pm the convection on the north side of the system seems to be exploding. I don't know how much that means but I would think it would help form a center towards that direction vs the further south eddie's. One thing seems assured. This will not be a galloping east coast storm with so much high pressure up here.

Nope, strong high pressure and dry air should weaken this quite a bit, It is not the right setup for a rocket. Timing would have to change.

My guess is that Fiona had more time to become extratropical and traveled further north before land interaction. The 38 hurricane was probably more tropical when it hit the south coast of NE.

Best case (for those not wanting a strong storm) is for the core to stay far enough west of Florida and the storm slowing down considerably and weakening. Lots of dry continental air could wrap in. I don't see a strong trough yanking this northward up the east coast unlike what is happening now with Fiona.

98L surface circulation looks good this afternoon. NE wind shear from the outflow of Fiona is blowing thunderstorms off to the SW. That shear will start weakening and then we should be off to the races. If there is any trend in the models today it would seem that this system might be tracking a bit further north as it approaches the West Caribbean. The Euro also has that trough over the Great Lake area a bit sharper and digging a bit further south. So perhaps a track further up the coast verses a slowing and weakening system at landfall down south somewhere. That is at least my take in the situation. Levi on Tropical Tidbits has a new discussion out. I think it was created before the 12Z Euro run.

Looks like the town of Port Hawkesbury would be the place to go to chase. Population 3200. West end of Cape Bretton Island. To get the full effect you want to be just east of the eye so the south wind can blast you. Still time for a road trip to get there.

I just Googled it. 948mb Hurricane Ginny in 1963 was the strongest hurricane to ever make landfall in Canada. Wow, if this is right

Speaking of intense hurricanes, Fiona looks like it is going to be quite the blow to the Maritimes. I don't know accurate the GFS is with hurricane intensity so far north but 929mb around landfall is very impressive. Lucky for us that hook was not further west.

52F Moderate rain. About .75" since midnight Cold, dark day. Woodstove has been going all day.

The island of Puerto Rico has lost 100% of it's power a few hours ago. 3.2 million people. The power grid is fragile after Maria 5 years ago but it still is amazing that the entire island is out with only the south coast getting hurricane gusts.

For a big storm in New England (wind) the storm center has to stay west. The other factor is that a storm starts weakening north of the Carolina's so you need a strong trough to the west to yank it north very quickly. At least this is something to watch although what could go wrong? Dry air, wind shear, islands with mountains, high pressure and trough location and only 270 hours out.

12Z GFS is beautiful if you want a strong New England hurricane. Storm intensifies as it moves north over the gulf stream High pressure to our east blocks it from escaping out to sea. Trough comes in from the west and yanks it northward. Long Island up the Connecticut River. Only 270 hours away.

Thunderstorm winding down. Approx .90" in the Stratus of which about .70" in the thunderstorm line. Highest rain rate I saw on the Vantage Pro 2 was 7.78"

65/63 Frequent lightning to west. .18" on the day. We will see what this line brings with it.

Exactly the same here. 64/61, cool refreshing air. I would think severe would have a hard time getting here unless the warm front can make some progress north in the next few hours.

https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/death-valley-127-degrees-record-hottest-september-day-on-the-planet/