mayjawintastawm

Starting a new topic for this storm. I don't think we've done that in a very long time. Snow/rain/UP started here at 10:42, 35 F.

I'm going to start a nowcast thread for this storm. Started with UP here at 10:42.

Meanwhile, temps in the Metro area are kind of concerning, 35-37 all night and holding. Doesn't seem like there is anything around to advect cold air anytime soon.

Right. Wentz, if you're still around Monday when roads should be clearer, and feel like exploring , take a drive north or south of Estes. You'll likely find snow that is 6-12 inches or more deeper than right in town. Peak to Peak (hwy 7) should be cleared pretty quickly, and goes up in elevation over 8000" within a few miles. You could even drive south to Boulder Canyon (119) and loop back toward the airport through Boulder.

Moved from Central MA 10+ years ago, born and raised there. Funny that annual snowfall here is exactly the same as the neighborhood I came from (though the water equivalent is less than half). Differences are mainly that there is just so much weather of consequence in the NE due to more water, and the winter storms there (perhaps 8- 10 a year in a good year, some hit, some miss) all follow the same 2-3 patterns, which have great entertainment value. The suspense is always there. Here, we get lots of little storms, but only 1 or at most 2 good Four Corners lows a year. Drought and fires tend to turn one off from following the wx. The one exciting thing here that is different for sure is supercell thunderstorms- but they appear and vanish so quickly that "following" them is hard. Most significant hailstorms at any given point are impossible to predict more than a few hours in advance, if that. Anyway, just my $.02. Gettin' ready for a mayjawintastawm, ayuh.

Hypothesis: The half dozen or so of us who post regularly are 1) tired 2) at the store 3) looking out the window and checking the temp every 30 seconds. And we've had almost a week of GFS stupidity, so there's that. And the No Accumulation Model with its mega-dry slot is making everyone mad.

If you've never been in a Plains blizzard, it's an adventure, and though I like adventures, this is one I'd skip. Think driving in a snowglobe. No points of reference. You can't tell if you're going 10 mph or 100 mph. IF I-80 is open, which it likely won't be, that'll be the scene on Sunday if current forecasts hold.

Though I live in Centennial, and the GFS is saying 12" at my house, but 25" perhaps 2 miles west. What a gradient Must be me. Plenty of places to stay for reasonably cheap for all the DTC business travelers. Lots of new motels on Arapahoe Rd that look pretty good.

Honestly, with an upslope/elevation dependent storm like this the difference between 25" (Boulder, low-end) and 40" (Nederland, for example) may well be only 10-15 miles as the crow flies. The issue is that that 10 miles may lead you to 0 places to stay that are open. If you want to stay IN the heaviest snow rather than NEAR it, Estes Park or Black Hawk (as others have mentioned) might be your best bet. Great chance of 3 feet of snow in either place. I lived in the Lehigh Valley for a while back in the 90s, and it's kind of like Allentown (places to stay, good but not great snow) and Palmerton (more snow but not really anyplace to stay). Hope that helps.

Thanks for the site! If things go according to plan, "back to Broomfield Sunday evening" might be dicey. Would think about a plan B. OTOH, systems often clear out earlier than forecast, so it might be OK.

Where do you get your numbers? I can't get anything yet.

Now might be a good time to take a holistic, Zen-like approach (is that possible here?) and let the atmosphere do what it wants to do for a while before locking anything in. Spring Front Range storms: 1) Quite uncommonly are mostly rain 2) Almost always overperform in the foothills; Boulder County usually wins 3) Seldom leave anybody out completely. Namaste.

Yeah, a difference between 2" and 4"+ in perhaps 20 miles doesn't make a ton of sense. Would not take this verbatim. You know, I was thinking about what might make models better that would incorporate probabilities and "time to event" that would inject some climatology into the craziness of predicting weather 168+ hours out. The NWS does this in their forecasting, ramping up POPs etc as events get closer. I do some stats in my job but have no idea about complex modeling. Does this ring a bell with anyone?

Anybody who was around in the floods of 2013 see a similar QPF pattern on the GFS with this storm? Seems spooky.

GFS is playing a game of high-stakes chicken with the other models. Though none are saying it'll be a total bust. Then again, the No Accumulation Model has not weighed in yet. Tomorrow evening is when our fantasy may blow up.

Blizzard of '78 in metro Boston, baby. One for the ages. 30 inches of dense snow on top of 20 inches 2 weeks earlier, hurricane force winds, huge coastal flooding, school out for 2 weeks (yes, in MA), state of emergency for 1 week, the whole deal. I think Mike Dukakis wore the same sweater for like 10 straight days (look it up). That one got me started on weather. I still have a test tube of water from that blizzard in a box in the basement.

There are a few nice places to stay in Estes Park, as good a base as any. If you want to observe impact on populated areas, then Boulder. If you are into rustic and potentially cut off from civilization, the Allenspark Lodge right on the Peak to Peak Highway is great if it's open (not sure if it is in winter or in COVID). Great breakfasts there. 50 inches of snow for that area is actually not super rare. Find a way to get a hold of some xc skis or snowshoes and have a good time.

I said recently I will not pay attention to any of the models till 72 hours out. So I'm not. Holy mackerel.

Would love to see this- several storms really. Would be so nice to get out of the rut that could promise a very nasty fire season again. Long long term (seasonal) from NCEP isn't looking super great, so anything we can get on the front end would be awesome.

Argh! Thought you might be getting snow. Pouring rain here all evening, weird for early March. Changes to snow for a minute then resumes raining. 0.26" rain so far, would have been 5 inches of snow in last week's storm.

Cool! We'd best savor that, as it looks mighty boring for a while now.

This was definitely one of the weirdest storms I've experienced in terms of snowfall distribution. Contrary to typical patterns, a big blob sat over the Denver Metro area all night- not the foothills as much, not Boulder. We were on the very southeast edge of the heavier snow with 11.5" of fluff. I wouldn't be surprised to see some legitimate 15" numbers coming out of the Denver/Aurora area as they come in.

And 3.5" here right now. Not bad for about 3 hours total.

Took a while for the column to saturate here- there were pretty strong echoes by about 6 PM, but at 7:09 the temp was still 36 with a DP of 16. Then the temp dropped 5 degrees and the DP rose 6 degrees in 5 minutes, and finally things saturated by about 8 and now we have lots of pretty aggregates.

A surprise 3.5" in about 2 and a half hours for me, good water too. Feb now has 5.9", seasonal total an even 30.0" (of course that includes the Labor Day snow which maybe shouldn't count).