mayjawintastawm

My relatives in central MA are sick to death of it. Snowmobiles are the transportation of choice this winter for some in the rural areas, a rarity! We visited 2 weeks ago and it was like RMNP except without the mountains. We had a 2000-miles-from-CO snowball fight. And it's cold too, single digits many mornings.

Yeah, really all the way back to around Labor Day here. And the CPC weekly, monthly, and seasonal forecasts just came out, which to me look like no real major pattern change for the next several months- La Niña, having far overstayed its welcome, may reluctantly leave, but that isn't translating into less heat or more moisture. Meanwhile, the East Coast keeps getting slammed with one storm after another.

That's good news! We are still at a trace for the month.

As we continue to desiccate down here on the Plains, February climate numbers to date indicate that DEN is tied for #1 warmest (43.7 average, +12) and is #1 for both driest (trace) and least snowy (trace) since the 1870s. Hopefully that will change.

Currently 32 F (above zero) at the measuring station way up above Berthoud Pass at 12493 ft. Dewpoint 0. Sublimation city! I was up on the ridge at Loveland Ski Area yesterday at roughly the same elevation, with roughly the same temp.

Jan snowfall 6.4", season to date 13.4".

Now that we don't have La Nina to blame anymore, any idea when this seemingly permanent, blocking ridge will go away? Always seems like "a pattern change is anticipated in about two weeks"... while my relatives in MA freeze their butts off. Daffodils are sprouting and a few birds are building nests.

The small squall had a direct impact on the outcome of the game... boo. My gym teachers and high school coaches in New England always said not to pass the ball when it's snowing hard. Guess that message didn't make it out here. Cold now. Haven't measured yet but guessing about an inch after 0.5" yesterday. My relatives in MA are getting absolutely pummeled. EDIT: just for numbers' sake, picked up 1.2" to add to the 0.5" from Saturday.

Yeah, weird for sure. The last several years, in fact, anytime a polar vortex lobe breaks off and heads south in North America, it seems like the axis is always between 75 and 95 W. That's a pretty narrow band. I wonder why. Incidentally, that is probably the largest winter storm watch I've ever seen in terms of sheer land area.

2.3" this event. 11.7" on the season. Hope Feb-May delivers!

Reviving my Dust Bowl musing from a couple weeks ago. Looking to see if there are any parallels in patterns between winter 33-34 and this winter. In Denver, Dec 33 was #1 warmest and this year #2, Jan 34 was #2 warmest (and the beginning of Denver's warmest year on record) and this year so far is #1. I kind of hope not, because 1934 was the kind of year you read about in history books, and not in a good way... I'm sure sea surface temperatures were not a thing yet in the 1930s, nor was PNA etc. but I wonder about other things they did measure. EDIT: Holy crap, I found something. (This is why atmospheric science is SO important...) La Nina from 90+ years ago. https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-top-story-source-of-1930s-dust-bowl-drought-in-tropical-waters-nasa-finds-march-18-2004/#:~:text=Scientists used SST data acquired,storms blew across the U.S.

2.4” here, almost all 1-6 am.

Pretty soon we’ll be driving ourselves crazy looking at models that predict yesterdays snowstorm that never happened.

I think HRRR only goes through 18 hours ( so 21Z, 2 PM MT) and NAM is pretty consistent wih its 12z run (18z was prob an outlier) - looking at the 00z ones I could find, not much has changed except the GFS is still heavier than the others.

I'm guessing 18z models and things I don't have access to upped the moisture a bit. Just looked at the NWS updated forecast, and we're forecast to get 0.39" WE and about 4.5 inches of snow, and we are a little too far north/too low to be in the watch area. No updated discussion- I've noticed that AFDs are not updated as often as they used to be, guessing staffing is the issue. So we'll see. In any case, I expect the Post's forecast of 1-12 inches will verify.