jpbart

Below is a statement from the NWS and I was hoping somebody could fill me in on what this forecaster is talking about here. Trying to learn a bit about all of this. Any instability that develops should be driven by steep mid-level lapse rates in association with the deepening upper trough. Why is this interesting? I`m glad you asked - it is primarily owed to the wind profiles this afternoon being quite favorable for severe hail. It is unlikely that we have even low amounts of instability advect into our forecast area; however, if a strong storm can sustain itself east of the better environment, it wouldn`t be surprising that at storm or two produced marginalia-severe or sub-severe hail.

Try living in Columbia, SC. Complete failure while others score is the new normal. We did get something like 1/2" that lasted about 3 hours and there was much joyous celebration over that. Otherwise, cold rain is our normal winter outcome, with some black ice when the cold arrives after the main event.

Around Columbia SC we had several tornado signatures on radar (3 or 4?) and tornado warnings posted. Storms overperformed a bit in the sever weather dept.

Hoping for a long spring with sunny days but not needing the A/C 24/7 until June. Yeah, I know. A man can dream, a man can dream.

Thanks!

Question: I want to access the various computer model outputs like a lot of members here appear to do. Is that possible and how do I do that? Site recommendations, any help, or advice would be greatly appreciated.

UHG! ICE galore for Columbia, SC. Curses!

Yes, that may be a factor adding instability to the current climate and changing things so previous analog years are less predictive. The effect is likely small over time currently but it is not well understood so it's effects are hard to pin down. General consensus is it makes things more extreme, droughts a bit more intense etc.

This appears to be the new normal, snow is just getting to be a less frequent event over time. I have stopped thinking about it and have just moved on. Being in Columbia SC this seems like the best way to preserve my sanity. I wish all of you snow people luck and maybe a miracle will happen and I get flurries this year while y'all get 18".

2.48" in the rain bucket for W. Columbia, Yay! Had 0.21" the day before with hopefully a bit more today. Being this happy about muggy rain filled days is a testament to how dry it's been. Hope Y'all score some rain, but not too much rain.

I am of the opinion that this year the peak is in October, possibly late october. Once the atmosphere cools a bit and a few things shift around it will kick off. That ocean heat has to go somewhere.

I suspect the season might be more back loaded into November, December than usual. A few storms my pop up then in a similar fashion as late June, July?

Amen brother!

Thanks everyone, I appreciate the responses.

I understand what ONI in, and SOI, but what is RONI? I tried searching for but to no avail. Can somebody explain this please?