mahk_webstah

Walking this morning watching a few small patches of brown start to show in the sunny parts of the fields, watching the ruts and river running down the hardpack driveway, and smelling the piling of composting chicken shit a couple thousand feet across one field, I thought, well this is going to freeze into a glacier again for a few days but then with the rain and warmth at week's end we might have a flooding problem and then mud. I did notice that as that storm gets going late week there is an arm of high pressure reaching over to stroke Ottawa, but didn't look like anything stout enough to push the track further south. I guess the low would have to slow down by 12-24 to allow some high pressure to establish to build a cold feed. That seems way way unlikely with no confluence to our north to help. Flooding it will be and then we contemplate an early spring or a pack rebuild. Seems like the truth might lie in between as the winter wimpers away, with a few inches here and there between warmth and melting, enough to get us here past 50" and annoy the crap out of us who want to start planting.

what pattern do you want?

One of the observations I've made after living up here for more than a dozen years is that it can snow big in a shitty looking pattern. Unless the pattern is so overwhelmingly bad (was it Dec 2016?), we can get a scooter high, a miller b, some transient blocking...whatever, and end up with a foot of snow. Many times we get to our average very late in the season.

there should be plenty of cold left in canada, and will the vortex totally consolidate or will we get pulses or stretches that give us cold?

It is weird because I am only in the low 30s with an average of 70 inches, but it has felt like deep winter up here for close to 2 months. Many days below 0, and several below -10. The pack stayed and kept thickening. It is softening now, but still quite glacial. Even after tomorrow, I'll still have 10-12 in the woods and full field snow cover I think, and then it will freeze up good again. So by one measuring a sucky winter, but by others (pack and temp) a very good winter.

You and Scott and Ray said many times in Dec and Jan "that is a good gradient/overrunning look", and then Jerry would mention Leon, and Jeff start talking about SWFE climo...etc. You have to wonder if we get some of that Atlantic blocking back and the PNA isn't quite so fierce....

well Scott did mention an "overrunning look"

I was thinking the next 10 days might be our delayed Jan thaw, but instead I think it is a full melt out, maybe followed by irritating March snows that stop me from planting in the garden. Once the pack melts I'm all for spring.

When does the arctic sw get sampled?

I don't have the links but I thought they were significantly different a week or so back. The Euro had a big ridge in the east, and I think was holding a decent -EPO.

So Euro wins the long range battle that was shaping up a week or so ago. Chris at GYX talks about robust qpf signal for late next week. Maybe a Rainer that accelerates the melt. But this week will only dent that pack up here. Still a lot of snow.

Off with their pack! Let them eat mud.

I detest ene motion, though I loved it as a kid in Delaware.

Will is like EF Hutton for me. When he talks, I listen.

That’s a special superpower you have. Must use it selectively.

Not happening James

Wow with weak returns that is something. Can't see what's happening at my place on the Nest. Too dark.

Ground truth better than radar. Also the forecast for mixing and changeover but is that really going to be able to happen

The Stark difference between the GFS and the EPS ensembles argues for a delayed pattern change. Maybe we make it through the 25th? I don’t know with a Canadian ensembles say

I guess the upside could be pretty high because the heavier it precip the more likely it is to stay snow. If we have light rates tomorrow it’ll probably quite mixed

The forecast seem to have gone lower and accumulations and more in rain. What’s the best case scenario in your view? I’m in London again so I’ll miss this but it’s always nice to return to fresh snow

Isn't it ironic, don't ya think The mid levels are finally cool enough north and west But the qpf beefs east where the warm air holds tough isn't it ironic, don't ya think? It's the blizzard of '78 while Jer's in Californiay, It's a 20 hour death band in Wilmington after Ray's moved away. Isn't it ironic, don't ya think? A little too ironic....

how far n and w does the torching go, if you don't mind.?

very Tip-like. I love the part about the son born 9 months later.

Overall a really a big disappointment but I look outside and something is falling and the still good pack is reinforced and cleaned. Can’t complain. Winter in rural New Hampshire.