mahk_webstah

I know you are a writer. This is some very nice prose

At least up here that seems to have bumped it up a couple more tenths

I agree about the very slow ramping up of the QPF. That’s why I’m leaning higher from my area. 12 to 18 but I think they’ll be people in southern New Hampshire who get 20 or a little more it just won’t be widespread.

I think a lot of us are going to be worried about the sleep line after this week of tracking

Get your rest and weenie out Sunday night. You’re gonna get a great thump!

If you’re in New York City, split the difference and pray. But that looks great for all of New England.

That run was a win for everybody in New England. That’s what I like to see. Well, I guess it comes in a close second to congrats Dendrite.

Looks like Ogunquit is about to fertilize

Basically, since I don’t know anything about the science or how to assess it I just listen to what the national weather service discussions are saying and what people are saying in here and then just add or take away from the 10 to one ratio. I would think that we could do at least 12 to one on the overrunning if not a bit higher to 14:2and then on the coastal stuff I imagine we could do 20 to one. That’s how I get to 12 to 18 inches up here on .9 or 1 inch of liquid. I also think this could slightly overperformed because of how anomalous it is and how strong the moisture feed is so I factored that in as well. 18 inches is a stretch but 12 inches looks pretty sure I think unless some weird stuff happens with banding. Wouldn’t be the first time. but WTF do I know?

Hoar

Ratios and rumors of ratios

I’m on the 12 to 18 train, but your train tends to get to the station while mine typically gently derails.

Hey, thanks for your reply. Looks like you might be new to posting here? Welcome.

Thank you. That sort of what I was thinking and that’s the kind of situation where we can end up with 17 or 18 inches of snow. I wish the heaviest stuff was happening during the day, but we can get a real heavy burst before sundown then wake up to a bunch of snow and light to moderate snow for good walks, and that is sort of thing that I like. Long walk in the woods with the dog and deep snow while snow is falling.

I was watching some coverage of those protest in Minneapolis with below zero temperatures and wind. I think the windchill was in the -40s. They can keep that kind of cold then I didn’t realize it was quite so cold in Watertown area

I have a question. For Monday, I understand that’s driven by the coastal low and the high-end snowfall possibility is obviously east of us. But what are you thinking It will be like on Monday? We should already have double digits by the morning so is it sort of a steady light to moderate snow off of that moist flow coming from the east? Or would there be banding all the way up this way from the coastal low. I appreciate your response and assume others can benefit as well from your sense of how this might evolve.

You’re going to get a lot of snow would be the main message there

Which could mean north trend?

How do you think it plays up my way near Concord? When is good for the coast? It’s usually not good here but if there’s a good easterly flow, we can do pretty well.

A bit low

I was tempted to think we might be more like 12 to 16 but I have seen on a number of the precipitation outputs that they are are lower numbers in the Merrimack Valley like often happens due to banding to our south or north. So I’m also thinking about 10 to 14.

I find the office up here, GYX, it’s pretty darn good. Sometimes I think they’re going to be way off and then in the end their forecast is usually on target

Also looks like the duration has increased. Last night they were saying a start here at 5 PM and now they’re saying 3 PM. But I think it’s gonna be more like 12 or one because that usually happens with these kinds of storms. But they have it snowing until early evening Monday so they are thinking more than 24 hours. I imagine along the coast or closer to the coast where you are, the duration could be even longer.

Wow, that seems to have gotten dramatically better for Maine.

Seems like five straight days or something where the GFS has had a big storm. I think the euro has had a signal, right? No one is really talked about the other model suites during this timeframe.