mahk_webstah

Colder than forecast here. 33 here now and maybe that means quicker changeover in the am

If you head east, Dover nh is a cool town

You could make a last-minute decision in the morning based on how things look.You could make a last-minute decision in the morning based on how things look.

Yes, it has seem like both you and me would get into that heavy band, especially given the track of the surface low. I don’t know enough to look at all the other stuff like the mid-level low tracks and all that sort of thing.

Given the projected wind and snowfall rates 1 to 3 in./h for a while, would there need to be a blizzard warning for somewhere? Probably somewhere east of me to maybe five or 10 miles from the coast? My forecast has winds gusting to 40 tomorrow and 30 tomorrow night

I guess the question is whether that is legit, I mean the tightening shield. Or will the precip be more expansive

That should translate nicely. 3/hour? Glad it is happening in daylight

helluva forecast to have to make for the first storm, with all of the factors up here...ratios, rates, etc. But the recent models are all 12+ go 8-15? probably more like 6-12. Or live large at 1-2'? Probably only do that overnight if the outputs continue to show ~2"qpf.

It is kinda cool when like 5 models in a row give you 1 to 2'. Could be a lot of very surprised people tomorrow afternoon

Good idea! Town of henniker

I’d keep going up 93 to Loon or Woodstock. Or maybe Plymouth which is a college town. In all these cases you won’t have to drive far off of 93 and you will have restaurants nearby. You will want to have nice places to walk around. If you don’t have the right vehicle though, you won’t be able to leave until 93 is wet. Probably Sunday afternoon

that 23.3 just east of me is through 10pm Saturday night? That must have some insane rates and it might not be over then? Even if we do that old ETA rule to cut qpf by a third, that is a great storm. Also NAM Euro rule here. I was going to set 6" as the over under but now might be 8. Jeff looks right on the edge if that band sets up west of him, but won't coastal ME finish well as it collapses to the coast?

I imagine a whole bunch of watches are going to go up in the afternoon package. Let’s hope Chris and Mike are on the shift today and tonight

a 2ft blizzard for Jeff

these have been gut punches here usually, lately. for you, some deformation band or upslope will suddenly appear and you'll have a foot.

When there is this much uncertainty in models I just assume it won’t work out well. But the Euro-nam thing does have a history so I guess this could be a big interior cne nne storm.

I think that is better for more of us, as opposed to those overwhelming Greenland blocks that shove out everything too far south for us up here.

Psychologically, I believe his melt may have served to clear the Freudian deck, so I think we’re good for snow now.

I thought the WPC map looked very close and they had a high in a very good position. We hope.

This sounds like a good stretch coming. We are perhaps gunshy given the last couple of winter forecasting challenges, and the frequently bad outcomes for us. But this kind of pattern seems like one that has enough cold air, a decent amount of activity, so likely things will show up, then back off and then come back strong. Also maybe we get one of those little surprises from a wave the slides quicly across underneath us and gives us 2-4 instead of some flurries. Or maybe we start to see models trend a bit colder, snowier as we get closer in this sort of set up.

07-08 gradient up here

The last few years I really ruined us for NAO believability. The only thing I believe now is fast flow and negative EPO

A d that is where the Atlantic side could help yes?

I like the sound of this in our not too distant future. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

To you too Brian, and everyone. Not a normal thanksgiving but much to be thankful for.