mahk_webstah

what is the trend since their last run? will be interesting to see if any trends develop this afternoon, given a pretty consistent look across models so far.

Lotta time left for tics

Going to be on the line up here. Seems like there’s probably an historical tendency to nudge this northwest a little bit, especially since it seems to be more of an interior job down towards Philly. I guess it’s the strength and position of the position of the block and how strong it is against analogs. Happy to see Chris at GYX leaning towards Northwest nudges. I see the boxing day storm is a classic occluded nudge east northeast the mountains to screw us over up here

One of our friends at gym thinks north trend anchored to our N...current deterministic runs just brush the forecast area with stronger forcing and resulting QPF. Given the antecedent air mass in place...this is looking like an all snow scenario. Much like yesterday the ensemble system all have significant spread...and this spread is mainly on the Nrn side of the storm track. With the offending S/WV trof still over the Pacific Ocean...and more robust sampling of the upper features not expected until Sun at the earliest...I expect run to run shifts in track to continue. Based on the spread pattern...I do expect some of these shifts to be farther NW and bring more QPF to the local area. I have once again opted for a 10 to as high as 20 percent increase over NBM PoP in Srn zones with the anticipation of poleward shifts with time. It would not take too much movement to bring the strongest forcing into extreme Srn zones...so this will be one to watch over the weekend.

WPC map for three days has had probabilities for snowfall that went well up into northern New England. I don’t think they have seen this as a southeast slider, Can you guys keep talking about the mid levels which always excites me

a classic dendrite-dryslat screwjob. Gene will have a sunny day.

with your location, we are almost on the same team.

that is when the gradient and the swfe take over?

I hope the 50-50 isn't too suppressive for some of us, but so far it doesn't look that way. It seems far enough north to not shove everything out to the south.

Kevin is engorged. http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photonov1921.html

A few years ago in February we stayed at the mountain view grand in whitefield. Only a few inches otg there, kinda disappointing. Found a snowmobile rental place in Jefferson and it was a different world. 4-5ft in the woods, snow falling 2” an hour. Amazing fun riding through those woods. 20 minute drive at the most from Whitefield.

I've been to Winter Carnival 3 times. The best city in North American to feel like you are not in North American. Great walking, great food, great boutique hotels. Please keep posting and send pics!!!

All we need is a little bit of blocking to our north northeast to force swfe or Miller Bs. If we get that bit of blocking it will show up in these modeled forecasts but a little to the events. Maybe we start to see that aft this weekend. Truthfully, I’m kind of expecting that.

Covid ruined it for this winter, but not enough of us visit the best snow town in eastern NA-Quebec City

Greatest pack year ever eh? When we moved up here March 31 there was still 24 inches of snow in the yard. I think it got close to 50 inches on the level.

I mean, I'm not a met but doesn't that imply some chances with systems coming under the trough and getting forced south by th blocking in the north atlantic? wouldn't that give us chances, though it is clearly not a perfect pattern.

I think late Dec 2007 was very good in NNE, yes? I didn't move here until the following year. Late December with cold air nearby is a good bet for many of us. I think that 2007-08 winter didn't feature a lot of big storms, but light and moderate ones were frequent. I've learned not to like some of the patterns that the MA and SNE like.

Point taken. It still seems like there are more misses these days and model gyrations. It is not just the maps because you help us see reality. The Euro no longer dependable, gfs kinda new. It all just seems less can be counted on from models these days although maybe it is the bias that comes from paying attention more. It wouldn’t surprise me though that the pace of climate change fooks with the analogue data; Tip has talked about this. I’m not a scientist so can’t provide any reliable analysis. But if the Mets don’t feel the models are worse with these storms, then you are probably right since you work with them every day.

Or the pattern might look different in a day or two..,.as has been happening

You’re missing my larger question. I don’t know the model verification scores on specific storms but it seems busts are more frequent last couple. I realize it could be some sort of bias at play but it seems it’s been a bustorama latelu

Is there any data to support this? Maybe Tip has an idea.

Is it my imagination or is that happening more often lately with storms?

Effin pos is what this is

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But the chickens are safe