mahk_webstah

If it plays out the way, it looks like it will you have to give a lot of credit to the modeling, which sniffed this out more than a week ago, even the high snow ratios. This threat has barely wavered since this thread was started, and even before.

People don’t understand how Maine is oriented.

A shame the best snow will be falling at night. I love going out for walks and that sort of perfect snow growth heavy snow.

WPC discussion sounds great for many. Indeed there will be a lot of high-fiving across this whole region. 1 to 2 in./h, possibly exceeding 2 in./hr As the parent shortwave continues to track progressively to theeast, the accompanying forcing and moisture will also pivot withit, and secondary low pressure development is likely off of the NJcoast late Saturday night into Sunday morning. This low will becomedominant and intensify as zonal but modestly coupled jet structuresinteract with a baroclinic zone offshore. As this low deepens andmoves almost due east south of New England, it will cross near theBenchmark (40N/70W), leading to a substantial snow event forUpstate NY, the Poconos, and at least Southern New England (SNE),although there remains uncertainty into how far north (or south)the heaviest snow will spread. As the low deepens and pulls away tothe east, a renewed surge of cold air both through theageostrophic flow into the low and the subsequent CAA in its wakewill limit the progress of the warm nose, while dry air to thenorth noted in regional soundings inhibits PWs from aggressivelylifting towards Canada. In between, an axis of heavy snow is likelyas strong WAA produces impressive 850-600mb fgen, producing strongascent into the DGZ. The overlap of this strong fgen with sometheta-e lapse rates approaching 0C/km suggests banding potentialfrom Upstate NY into SNE, and with elevated SLRs, snowfall rates of1-2"/hr appear likely. Total snowfall will be limited by the speedof this system as it will only snow in most areas for 12-18 hours,but this will still result in heavy accumulations. WPCprobabilities for more than 6 inches of snow are high (>70%) fromthe Mohawk Valley of NY eastward into much of MA, southern VT,southern NH, and the southeastern tip of ME. Locally 8-12" of snowis possible in some areas.

Never seen so much snow forecast on Wunderground for this area. 6 tonight tomorrow (probably low) 8 Wednesday Thursday 16 Saturday Sunday

GYX says ratios up here 15-20:1

My weather underground site has had this as a 7 to 9 inch snow for a couple of days now. But I’ve been distracted by both Sunday and then what looks like a big storm next weekend.

Good advice

I’m thinking watches go up shortly for one more tier north in nh

That’s not a cutter

Iggles by 6-12,with lollies for everyone

I could be very, very naive but I have a hard time buying areal warm double cutter. Maybe front end snow changes to sleet ends as rain and dry slot. I don’t buy a wholesale change to what we’ve been seeing for several days while we have a -nao. Granted it might be dicier down by you than upvhere

I noticed the NAO starts to rise on the 17th or so and was thinking that could be an indicator of a storm in the 18th or 19th

Doesn’t that imply large storm 18-19th?

How would they manage back to back cutters in this pattern?

That’s essentially a perfect forecast. in centimeters

I’m more interested in your work to make rest stops great again

I know you spend a lot of time on the road…

Thursday is 6 days out so it should be be threaded lol! even if Sunday ends up messy, it would probably have a good front end. Then a solid 20” pack for whatever comes next.

Probably not for us. But for SNE!? But thurs-Sunday look potentially very big. Is it 2 systems? Which one has bigger potential? To me there could be a thread for that period. Wed-thurs on Wunderground is 9” and Sat-Sunday is 11

I kind of feel like this storm will come back to what we were looking at three or four days ago. What I mean by that is maybe another tick north but not too much further. And something that’s more like 4 to 12 inches broadly across the region. Most will be 6 to 10. I don’t know if the ratios and Snow growth look as good as they did a few days ago, but that was a bit of a wild card in our favor at least initially. it’s hard to grapple with the other systems in the pipeline because we have so many. Most of the energy now is on Sunday, but we really should have a thread for Tuesday and one for Thursday Friday and then one for the weekend. All of those are potentially very impactful.

For who

You wanna slap dongs so bad…

We could easily have four threads going right now

I just see it as one piece of data that I drag overtime. To have 22 inches of snow from Sunday to Sunday on underground app is extremely unusual. If not unprecedented for me.