mahk_webstah

Brooklyn you all over that trough!

A very personal question here but, my flight in from London arrives at 1 PM Saturday. What do you think? There are no flights available for me to get in on Friday evening. Trust me I’ve already looked at that fully. In the relevance and context of this thread, I guess what I’m really asking is is the tendency gonna be to slow down or speed up do you think in this sort of set up?

Gotta keep the skills sharp. Glad your household is on the mend. Off topic but what was your final total in the last storm. I didn’t measure at end but I decided 8.5 was a bit conservative based on what was there next morning

Bringing some serious analysis. You’re on the verge of a major investment

A lean west but still the lean is outside 40-70

I don’t have a good feeling about this one. Big storms show early, generally, and when the ops waver it is no problem if the ens still look good. Clearly we need a shift in the data. The trend that we wake up to Tuesday morning will tell the tale for most while the eastern people hump, pump or jump every 6 hours.

Don’t have the wrong coffee and you can hold that off for a bit

Actually I’d rather keep the mask on when I’m in close quarters because I don’t want to be stranded for five days in London if I get exposed. I think I wanna miss the storm at the end of the month?

Lillie’s to 80

Are there actually five streams in the northern and western hemisphere? Or are we tapping the southern and eastern hemispheres?

Been reading WPC twice a day and looking at snow amounts on wunderground (not sure what model blend they use?). My guess is 1-3 high ratio on Tuesday, I leave for London that night and return Saturday. I expect to return to a WSWarning for the Saturday pm-Monday period. That seems reasonable.

Let’s see what the EPS has to say. But we’re probably get 1 good storm by February

A isotherms ftw!

-13 at the closest similar elevation, but -16 1/2 mile down the road 200ft lower. Coldest in 3-4 years I think. It has been quite a cold stretch and probably continue another 2 weeks at least. If we get a stretch of good snows this winte will be remembered fondly.

A good stretch coming.

-13 with 9-12 inches on the ground. Deep winter

-5.5 1/2 mile from here a couple hundred feet lower. That's cold this early in the night. Pray for the peaches...

This pattern has been hinted at but not truly set up yet because the western trough was so anomolously deep. If it sets up more like that then we have a very fun time ahead. It could all go to shite, but we should consider that there is also a possibility of a light storm mid week, a big storm around the 30th, and then a cold overrunning pattern setting up. Both extremes are on the table it seems.

LBSW

I dunno...in some ways it is liberating to have nothing to track and just to see what happens. Probably easier when I'm going on my walks through a foot of snow in the woods vs. staring at bare ground. It is deep winter up here right not. But also, the models have been so bad recently that things can pop up, overperform, underperform, disappoint and delight. I said a few days ago that we have a good chance of a storm between Jan 23-26, and that is a real possibility. We'll have a couple more chances before February. I think most of us get 6-12 between now and Feb 1.

so I see we've devolved to cars now...

of course there is always the option to not go into the thread.... but addiction is hard.

WPC feeds the SNEweenies (SNEnnies?) at 3:17pm today: This area oflow pressure is to be positioned near the right entrance region of a potent jet streak over thenorthern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, which will allow for strengthening. As a result,blossoming precipitation is expected to the north of the low pressure system and over an areaexperiencing subfreezing temperatures. A swath of heavy snow is most likely to occur fromnorth-central North Carolina to southeast Virginia and the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Regardlessof recent deterministic guidance trending more progressive with the system and limiting QPF overthe northern Mid-Atlantic, there remains numerous ensemble members and synoptic support hinting ata farther north solution. Given the ridging downstream over the western Atlantic, it won't takemuch to steer a system closer to the coast and extend heavy snow as far north as an area fromsouthern Pennsylvania to southern New England. Given the large uncertainty, the heavy snow area onthe hazards chart today depicts where most guidance overlaps the highest chances for receivinggreater than 4" of snow. However, it is important to note that changes to this forecast over thenext few days are still likely.

if so I'm sure he'll just reach down and starting flinging it at us.

This isn’t kicking a can. The pattern supports a significant east coast storm sometime between the 23-26th.