David Reimer

Looks like surface pressure is up to around 932 millibars as the hurricane rapidly fills late this morning. The damage is done surge-wise; and we'll see how the extropical transition enhances wind gusts across Florida tomorrow morning. I'd put maximum sustained winds around 130 MPH at the moment. Category 4+ storm surge will occur near and south of landfall tonight regardless of the 'wind' category.

Back to a pinhole eye. Not something you typically see with consecutively after two EWRCs. F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles

146 Knot FL wind with a 141 knot SFMR. Even ignoring the SFMR, that's 150-160 MPH surface wind.

Agreed and was initially confused about the 960. However, I realized they're dropping two drones in the eye on this mission. Perhaps the drone is providing in-situ observations and that's where they got that. Otherwise, idk either.

"I kinda wonder if those are hot towers beginning to fire around the center." That is a statement. "Are those hot towers beginning to fire around the center?" is a inquiry.

Recon is departing and heading home.

Outbreak? Since when did this forum turn into the YouTube emulation channel for RHY and Timmer? Really don't expect a 'outbreak' of tornadoes - though a decent number of pocket-change size hail and wind reports are possible. To be honest, gradient winds ahead of the squall line may be a more substantial problem.

An interesting fall severe weather setup. The kinematics are certainly going to be there, but the specific thermodynamic mix and surface features remain questionable. Certainly a beautiful upper-level system and a decent looking chance for at least two days of severe weather potential. Whether or not we end up with chaseable tornadic supercells before a mixed-bag of vomit thrown on the storm reports map (QLCS galore) will probably come down to the 'day of'.

Insane pressure gradient with Sam. Goes from 942 millibars to 1000 millibars in 24 miles.

You obviously have never been to the Middle or Upper Texas Coast if you think it is filled with 'rich peoples beach houses'. As for the fossil fuel infrastructure - are you out of your bloody mind? How much of an ecological disaster would unfold if we had those facilities taken out? The amount of chemicals spilled would be absolutely insane. I mean, they do a good enough job as it is with spilling something every other week. As for talking down Windspeed, who is a very long-time and knowledgeable poster, I would suggest you take that attitude and shove it back up to the Northeast weenie section. _______________________________ As for Nicholas, the wind element sure certainly seemed to overperform. Wind gusts were over 60 MPH observed at several sites in Houston with over 350,000 customers without power. Pretty impressive wind field for what I expected would be a relatively localized and limit wind threat. While the wind (and in some cases, surge) were impressive, the flooding threat has not. Looks like the HRRR was onto something when it kept a majority of the heavy rains off the Texas coast. Louisiana? Well, they may be in for another world of hurt in the flooding department.

We're talking about Jeff P, right?

Surge and strong wind moving into Grand Isle: https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress2.html

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,069m (10,069ft) We'll see if it is done intensifying. That is a strong temperature differential - often a sign of ongoing intensification.

Another 'emergency scramble' from San Antonio and the 53rd after two return to base mechanicals. That is definitely a first - and while off-site too.