The winds could be awesome for seiche in Erie.
But overall that was maybe the worst run of the gfs ive seen haha. Central and Western Lakes cash and Eastern Lakes gets nothing. Id rather warmth instead of cold and bare ground haha
I agree, not sure about west Michigan but the Detroit-Toronto-Niagara corridor will be hard pressed to get a big snowstorm. Toronto might sneak in a 1-4” Lake enhanced snow tomorrow night.
Not saying it can’t happen but let’s cool the jets a bit on widespread 1-2 feet coming the next 10-14 days lol.
January 2016 seems similar at Toronto where it looks like we got heavy rain followed by cold, brief warm up, 1.5" of snow and then below freezing for a week but nothing crazy cold. Will be interesting to see if it follows the same script
Interesting I wonder if this is the set up that happened in 09-10
Niagara/Toronto proper miss south on some and get rain on the cutters.
Got 3 days in a row with some snow cover though which is a nice win. That New Years system gave just enough
Ya, that’s a good way to put it. But some in Ontario are starting to say make sure you have snowblowers and shovels ready it’s about to become real cold and real snowy
Yep, and then what is a bit annoying is the general public doesn’t understand why Toronto or Chicago aren’t buried in 1-2 feet of snow and -10F
The pattern is definitely better and I’m hopeful for a mid size 3-6” storm followed by 20s for highs in the next few weeks. That's where my expectations are currently lol
I’m just wanting a solid 3-6” storm that then stays on the ground for at least a week. The hype about this new pattern has spread to social media so this will be a bit funny if nothing happens in my region. Lots of talk of monster winter storms and frigid air.
Toronto is far enough east that I might take a look at Rochester-Albany in 48-49. Could be some inland runners?
I’m excited for the second half of winter because I do think we see a turn towards more snow and cold and even if we hit top 5 least (25”) it will feel like a snowy second half
Just enough distance between Detroit and Toronto to have different record low years. I think 2009-2010 you guys had an okay winter and obviously the opposite happened in 1936-1937
So for you guys to have a bad year you really have to have a bad year lol
One storm in March can make sure you don’t finish top 5. Toronto doesn’t have that luxury
Looking at this list and it’s pretty crazy that with records from 1937 onwards that 4 of the least snowy winters are in the last 20 years. Real rough stretch from 2006-2012
Wow 1936-37 saw about 24” (had to find that as Pearson starts a year later)
1st 2011-2012 saw 16.8”
2nd 2009-2010 saw 20.6”
3rd 1952-1953 saw 21.2”
4th 2006-2007 saw 23.7”
5th 2015-2016 25.9” (1936-37 but that wasn’t Pearson)
Currently Toronto has seen 4.1” so we would need to see a pretty snowy mid January to mid April to make sure we don’t crack the top 5 this year
When would you start to talk futility?
If I remember correctly April 2016 was coming out of Nino and Toronto saw a 4” storm in early April and a few more 1” event. I believe that April was our snowiest month that winter.
That December also saw almost no snow. That winter ended with around 25” with 8” coming in April. So I feel pretty good starting to talk top 5 least snowiest winter for Toronto in the next few weeks.
A couple weeks ago we discussed all time low snowfall records being possibly broken. Though it still is really early are you starting to at least entertain the idea?
I think Toronto ends up around 20" on the season which is well below average but not record low. Just enough events in the second half of winter to make sure we don't hit record low. Going to be interesting though. 0.5" expected NYE