mississaugasnow

Yep. I think I’m looking at 3-6” of snow after the rain. I’m big into international relations so this system is on the back burner. I’m following it a bit but my time is spent following Ukraine-Russia right now

Niagara Falls airport is 38F while Buffalo is 49F Thats a massive spread

Buffalo has a big range in the immediate WNY area. Most likely comes down to miles tomorrow night in the Buffalo Metro. Buffalo 1" while Niagara Falls 3-5" Niagara Falls-Lewiston-Youngstown might sneak out an actual winter storm with this. Assuming a tiny shift could put them in 4-6" over a 6 hour period

Ill be threading the needle here in Northern Haldimand up by Hamilton regarding heavy snow. Though Ill be following the Grand River closely with the rainfall and snow melt. EC has me in the rainfall warning. Could/should be in rainfall warning with a winter weather travel advisory by tomorrow morning I think

I have to imagine some winter storm watches go up for Erie and Niagara mid afternoon.

wonder if Buffalo goes with winter storm watch. I could see a 2-5" snow event with enough freezing rain to warrant it.

You guys may get a good-great snowstorm out of this. Ill be keeping an eye though on Don River and other creeks and rivers. Buffalo mentioned 2-4" of water locked up in the snowpack and checking out the interactive snow maps on NOAA you can see most of the GTA has 1-2" with pockets of 2-4" The temperature plus heavy rain early Thursday should get rid of a lot and cause significant run off.

Getting a bit more nervous for some serious flooding potential. 1-2 inches of rain and temperatures near 50F. The winds should help obliterate the snow pack as well. The second part of the storm has me getting an ice storm so ideally the front slows down and we get more rain.

50F and heavy rain though will cause significant run off so this is starting to look interesting for flooding in Grand River area. Possible ice storm/snow storm after which at this point I hope it stays rain as I want nothing to do with an ice storm.

Wonder if EC puts up winter storm watches tomorrow. Tough but potentially high impact event for them to forecast

I would rather rain compared to freezing rain. Ideally rain to snow

haha ya. Check out the weather networks forecast. 15-20mm of rain Wednesday/Wednesday night and then flurries with 5cm Thursday. Looking at the models and then looking at the forecast and not sure what they see.

Supposed to head up to Muskoka this weekend. May go up a bit earlier in the week if it looks to be a good one. The models are showing some big snow but forecasts (weather network, EC) are showing heavy rain. Think it ends up being a good storm up there?

Ideally delay it one more week and I’d love that haha.

I’m heading up to Muskoka next weekend so I’d take that

Haha. Ya, I dont think most of this board could handle a normal Toronto winter which is about 40"

I missed the actual big one because I was down in Florida. Theres just something thats changed in the last 5ish years where I switch to spring come mid-late February. I definitely hate warm November-Januarys but couldnt care less about February ideally first half snowy second half thaws out. March its fully go historic or stay warm

haha

Im honestly over big time storms so sign me up for 3-5" across the GTA and a delay in the pattern change. Sounds weird but delaying a SE ridge by even 7-10 days in mid to late Feb makes a big difference. Also allows us to keep snow pack just a bit longer

I completely wrote off this storm and yet Toronto is back in depending on the model.

well I honestly gave up any hope of snow with this one so now I'm intrigued. Since GTA is riding the line Im also good for a 50 mile shift SE to get Buffalo-Niagara and maybe even Rochester into it.

noticed the same thing here. 38F and light rain. This is snowpack is taking a beating but still about a solid 4-6" on the ground. This last little bit will take some time to melt.

A lot can change but at this point ive accepted the snow will be gone soon. If we can sneak out this storm ill be impressed and fully done with winter haha

One more big time cold snap this weekend followed by warmth that will still take some time to melt the snow. I get the wanting winter to hang on but where we live just isnt far enough north. Toronto is a few days away from when the quick changes will overwhelm winter anyways. Toronto bottoms out with average high of 28F January 30th roughly, bounces around there for two weeks and todays average is 30F in 6 weeks the average high is 46F so winter is now battling an almost 3F average rise per week.

I dont know about Syracuse winter temps but I find your area and Buffalo similar to Erie PA. Tons of snow but retaining it compared to other snowbelts in the Great Lakes is much more difficult. Muskoka, Kincardine-Owen Sound and UP get dumped on, are much further north and have normally frozen lakes a warm front has to go over. You guys are wide open for gulf air to surge north. My cottage for example in Muskoka is 32F and Im at 42F. Downside is those places get even more screwed in about 6 weeks haha. It could be 60F at my house but 40F and heavy fog up in Muskoka