mississaugasnow

Ill take 2-4" of stat padding since it appears we go below average to begin March. 

16 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Freezing rain at Hamilton. 

Yep, 32F and ice pellets here now 

8 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Potentially more snow next week. This winter is likely not ending until mid March, at least.

Winter will continue but overall winters back is broken. I’m looking forward to Sunday 41F and sunny and Monday is 43F and mix of sun and cloud 

3 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

It's been snowing here in north Toronto for an hour now. 

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

If you’re in Mississaugua, you’ll be snowing within the hour

I live up on Hamilton Mountain now by the airport. (10km away) should probably change my name 

12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The R/S line is nearly stationary for the last 90 minutes. Actually ticked North. I’m VERY dubious of 3-6 anywhere stateside. 

Lol I know you’ve mentioned your a winter guy so what I’m about to say will probably make no sense. 
 

Almost identical set up two weeks ago and I was stressing about when the switch over will happen ect.. 

Since I get into spring fever after mid February this storm means nothing to me haha. Rain all night and I wouldn’t be upset. It’s in the 40s and sunny by Sunday/Monday so the snow won’t be around long anyways. 

30 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Relax. Enjoy the snow.  We'll enjoy our rain here. Nothing of substance  is going to happen there. It's baked in theatre.

I think so as well but can never be certain, so I’m following it on some discords 

also 33F and rain here so I’m not missing much. Looking upstream at London and I think we might get a prolonged period of freezing rain instead of snow. 

19 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Pearson is at 34 with rain.

Yep. I think I’m looking at 3-6” of snow after the rain. I’m big into international relations so this system is on the back burner. I’m following it a bit but my time is spent following Ukraine-Russia right now 

Niagara Falls airport is 38F while Buffalo is 49F 

Thats a massive spread 

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

agreed. I'm thinking mainly rain and then 1-2" of sleet/snow on backside 

Buffalo has a big range in the immediate WNY area. Most likely comes down to miles tomorrow night in the Buffalo Metro. 

Buffalo 1" while Niagara Falls 3-5" 

Niagara Falls-Lewiston-Youngstown might sneak out an actual winter storm with this. Assuming a tiny shift could put them in 4-6" over a 6 hour period 

2 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

18z 3kNAM big hit for GTA with amounts near 10". Low tracks ~990mb through Erie, PA always seem to get it done around here.

Ill be threading the needle here in Northern Haldimand up by Hamilton regarding heavy snow. Though Ill be following the Grand River closely with the rainfall and snow melt. 

EC has me in the rainfall warning. Could/should be in rainfall warning with a winter weather travel advisory by tomorrow morning I think 

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Another run with over an inch of freezing rain over BUF and all of Erie county

I have to imagine some winter storm watches go up for Erie and Niagara mid afternoon. 

wonder if Buffalo goes with winter storm watch. I could see a 2-5" snow event with enough freezing rain to warrant it. 

2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Thinking with the trends maybe EC gets arm twisted into a watch. Even down in your hood and Niagara, the "warmer" NCEP solutions look like a decent ice storm.

You guys may get a good-great snowstorm out of this. Ill be keeping an eye though on Don River and other creeks and rivers. Buffalo mentioned 2-4" of water locked up in the snowpack and checking out the interactive snow maps on NOAA you can see most of the GTA has 1-2" with pockets of 2-4" 

The temperature plus heavy rain early Thursday should get rid of a lot and cause significant run off. 

Getting a bit more nervous for some serious flooding potential. 1-2 inches of rain and temperatures near 50F. The winds should help obliterate the snow pack as well. 

The second part of the storm has me getting an ice storm so ideally the front slows down and we get more rain. 

50F and heavy rain though will cause significant run off  so this is starting to look interesting for flooding in Grand River area. Possible ice storm/snow storm after which at this point I hope it stays rain as I want nothing to do with an ice storm. 

Wonder if EC puts up winter storm watches tomorrow. Tough but potentially high impact event for them to forecast 

17 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

True. I could honestly do without the rain, but it looks inevitable at this point.

I would rather rain compared to freezing rain. Ideally rain to snow 

6 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Heavy rain in Muskoka?  Anything's possible but that would require an slp track through Huron or something, which even the GFS isn't showing.

haha ya. Check out the weather networks forecast. 15-20mm of rain Wednesday/Wednesday night and then flurries with 5cm Thursday. 

Looking at the models and then looking at the forecast and not sure what they see. 

2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Early thinking 75% EURO/UKIE/CMC, 25% GFS compromise.  As has been pointed out, this is very similar to GHDIII and I believe that's the blend between the NW/SE camp that ended up being reality.

Would yield a tremendous ice storm imby.

Supposed to head up to Muskoka this weekend. May go up a bit earlier in the week if it looks to be a good one. 
 

The models are showing some big snow but forecasts (weather network, EC) are showing heavy rain. Think it ends up being a good storm up there? 

28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GFS showing temps near 70 next week

Ideally delay it one more week and I’d love that haha. 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

I’m heading up to Muskoka next weekend so I’d take that 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We're a go big or go home crowd.

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Hasn’t Toronto had two great years now? Obviously, it’s relative. A Toronto winter would have me:

Haha. Ya, I dont think most of this board could handle a normal Toronto winter which is about 40" 

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Theres also no such thing as big storms in Toronto, so you should be fine

I missed the actual big one because I was down in Florida. Theres just something thats changed in the last 5ish years where I switch to spring come mid-late February. I definitely hate warm November-Januarys but couldnt care less about February ideally first half snowy second half thaws out. March its fully go historic or stay warm 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The only storms that matter are big storms...

 

haha 

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Clown time

Im honestly over big time storms so sign me up for 3-5" across the GTA and a delay in the pattern change. Sounds weird but delaying a SE ridge by even 7-10 days in mid to late Feb makes a big difference. Also allows us to keep snow pack just a bit longer