NavarreDon

Not pointing this at anyone directly but, not sure how we can predict landfall from a system without a closed circulation. History tells us that this is a crapshoot at best. Using Grace as an example, before formation models trended from the FL big bend W to the MS/AL border. After formation they trended back E thru AL then into the FL Panhandle. The only thing that’s relatively sure now is a more N formation should equal a more E track & a more S formation should equal a more W track. At this point ,In the USA, people from Brownsville to at least the W FL Panhandle should have a eye raised for 99L. .

Evening all, just wanted to check in and make sure you all are safe. All of you & WNC are in my thoughts & prayers! Please be safe and choose wisely!!! .

I’m about 45 miles west of them they’re about 60 miles west of landfall on CSB. .

I’m in between Pensacola & Fort Walton Beach. Grayton & Seagrove are on 30A in Walton county. They are about halfway between me and the projected landfall area. .

From EVX it looks like landfall around the Indian pass/Cape San Blas area in the next 2-3 hours. .

Out on Navarre Beach, you can see the storm off in the distance, surf is up even with the offshore flow. .

Another E shift on the guidance for the 18Z run. I’m out of it now, & will have to mow tomorrow….ugh! .

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre The wording is confusing it should start with Mary Esther FL for the warning .

Just an update TS warnings start at the Santa Rosa/Okaloosa county line. Navarre is actually under a TS Watch. .

Here we go….. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line. .

LOL, not a lot to prep for! Secure some things in the yard, gas in vehicles (due to others), ect.

Up early this morning, prep will begin as watches have been hoisted. .

Looks like some towers around what was the center of Fred? .

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Obviously it’s a filthy mess but this always raises the eyebrow!!!! .

I’m watching. .

My post wasn’t directed at you, I enjoy your enthusiasm. Some of the tangents the that posts take the direction of the thread in, are a bit over the top. .

Great post! Some normalcy in the thread has returned!!! .

At work & just saw this, looks like a shift to the west….thoughts? .

I would recommend the Panhandle. Base of Panama City Beach, this allows relocation both E & W in pretty quick order. .

It’s working fine for me. .

Really frustrating & yes is there a fix in the works!!!?

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday. However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone, accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are likely to be issued later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. .

That’s really depressing!!! .

Any Mod or Admin. Have a resolution for this? Lot’s of history in these deleted threads! .