NavarreDon

It’s basically go time now. Model watching is about over. If I was up there I’d be looking at the strength & placement of the HP & watching the track, speed of the developing LP. .

TWC has boots on the ground in AVL already, Felicia Combs reporting this morning. .

Sometimes it’s a good idea to look at things downstream. This is part of MOB’s morning disco. I’d recommend reading the rest as they’re a damn good crew. This is what you want to see for a bigger Mnt/FH snow! .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...An upper level shortwave trough dives south over the Plains tonight, organizing into a closed low as it moves. The upper low moves east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley to over the forecast area by Sunday night as a decreasingly positively tilted system, then increasingly negatively tilted as it moves east of the forecast area late Saturday night through Sunday. A surface low that has developed over Texas this afternoon moves east-southeast along the northern Gulf coast to over the forecast area by early Saturday evening. A weak warm front organizes along the Gulf coast tonight ahead of the approaching surface low, but with relatively weak low level southerly flow ahead of approaching system, the front will remain along the coast. A strong cold front moves east over the forecast area beginning Saturday night, ushering in a colder and drier airmass. .

Boom for you guys! The big boys at WPC put no stock in the quirky NAM runs. that low track is gonna be gold for the Mnts. I wouldn't fly over the cliff because of lower qpf totals in some areas. This tends to happen with models as the event draws near. Often times it's closer to the earlier higher totals. As with every big Mnt snow event the totals will vary wildly. Good luck to all of you!!!

I think the rates will overcome any sort of warmth in the mid levels for most in the Mnts. Also bear in mind the higher elevations will likely be looking at maybe a 12-1 vs 10-1 ratio if the temps maintain a upper 20’s profile. .

Normally would be the overnight tonight/tomorrow morning. With how early they put out the watch I could see a portion of the watch going warning this afternoon. .

It’s looking great for almost everyone in the Mnts & Foothills. As for the FBRV snow hole Jason made some great points. I’ve seen it be way overdone by the models with this set up. Not saying it’s not correct but I’m skeptical it will be as dramatic as depicted. As always with SE snowstorms nothing is certain but as far as modeling, setup’s, ect it doesn’t get much better than this!!! Strap in fellas it’s gonna be a wild one. .

Congrats!!! .

I’ve never seen them pull the trigger 5 shifts away from an event!!! The wording in the disco suggests at this point it’s not a question of if but how much. They also usually start conservative with totals but not this time! Curious to see what Jason Boyer’s tune is after this? .

This was the biggest one for me while I lived up there 18” at my place off of New Stock Rd including flow snow. We were lucky to lose power for only 54 hours. It looked like a war zone with abandoned vehicles & trees down everywhere! https://www.weather.gov/gsp/18-20DecemberWinterStorm .

The only area in the Mnts where their might be any issues would be the extreme SW Mnts. Hayesville, Murphy, Andrews corridor at lower elevations. This area can be susceptible to missing the CAD. Possibly some mixing issues in this locale depending on micro climate, low track, ect. Obviously with varying amounts, the rest of the Mnts show a real possibility of getting clobbered! .

Man, that’s a tough one! You could get a great dump at home. The in laws spot is not that prone to dry slotting plus it’s a good spot for some flow snow. I think they will get a big one. As I said either will be a win for you with this system. I’d definitely be gathering info (models, afd’s from all the Offices around you GSP, Blacksburg, Raleigh) and make that final decision as late as possible. Sage advice from Octopus, & go with your gut. .

What’s the timeline, when does a decision have to be finalized? If you have time follow the model trends. Depends on what part of Hickory & what part of Black Mountain. I’d wait as long as possible to gather the most info then make the call. The great thing is either way will be a win! .

Good morning folks!, this is shaping up to be a nice thump for most of you. Still a ways out but I’m loving the trends for heavy snow even in the foothills. Of course it’s all up in the air because it’s the south. I love living at the beach but not gonna lie, this is one of those times I wish I was in the mix with you all. Just gonna have to settle for the vicariously route with you! .

I really like this setup for you Mnt peeps! Close call either way for areas surrounding the Mnts. Still time for changes to occur but this is shaping up as a pounder. .

Morning folks!, I’m checking in with my eyes on the system. I think the 6Z is over doing the ice for most of the mountains . Obviously the escarpment and foothills are susceptible. Lots of time for adjustments to come. Remember not to get to caught up on one model or run. Don’t forget about synoptics when you look at the big picture. Buckle up for a wild couple days…..my favorite part of winter storms!!! .

Congrats to all that cashed. My previous next door neighbor posted pics & it looked like 2” off of New Stock Rd. Any of you seeing flow snow? BTW it’s 44 & windy at the beach currently!

https://www.facebook.com/OkaloosaSheriff/videos/668211411008527/ .

Agreed & whoever gets lucky enough to be popped by the deform band is gonna be in for a treat. I still say don’t sleep on areas in the foothills. If things break right with the low track and strength…..surprise, surprise, surprise!!! .

From a purely weather vs snow perspective. I find the verbiage in this portion of the GSP disco so cool! Tons going on in the atmosphere in the next 18 hours. Minor adjustments will be made to the Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories with the high elevation warning expanded down into Macon and the Advisories expanded across the northern NC foothills. Uncertainty over accumulations remains very high given the present very warm profiles, the warm ground, and the speed of the system overnight through Monday morning. However, the forcing is tremendous tonight as upper jetlet divergence ahead of the approaching wave sharpens up quickly this evening. A mid-level deformation zone will cross the region mainly from 08Z to 12Z and bring locally very heavy snow rates, at least in the places cold enough for snow. Saturated geopotential vorticity fields also indicate some thundersnow could be possible in the heaviest rates late tonight. Amounts have been boosted to 10 to 12 inches in the highest peaks of the Smokies. The snow will end as NW upslope snowfall in the TN border counties Monday, tapering off in the afternoon. Black ice will be a concern beyond the Warning/Advisory period. .

A very veteran group in here but we all get excited and tend to fall all over every model run (I know I was guilty of it when I lived in Weaverville!). 85’s post is spot on & very realistic. Temper your expectations to avoid disappointment. .

I’m at work And can’t look, is that for the airport or proper? What does your pinpoint forecast call for Jason? Earlier today my old one for Newstock Rd area was saying 3-5”. I think this at a minimum will hold true for north of proper. .

Sorry for the double post, please delete.

Good morning & HNY folks, this system has some potential for sure! Lots of variables in play here. Low placement & path, amount of tilt, how quickly temps crash, & dynamics. Things are looking good for a lot of you. I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see someone report thunder snow. I liked the fact that the models aren’t showing the infamous FBV dry slot. Elevational areas look golden. N Buncombe up through Burnsville, Boone, W Jefferson look prime to me. Depending on low track portions of the Foothills might surprise. I expect someone will report 10” if this maintains. Remember it’s weather and models can only do so much. Be ready for shifts both good & bad. Good luck to all of you and I’ll be living vicariously thru OBS, pics, & vids! .

Just wanted to pop in and wish you all a very Merry Christmas! Hope you guys get a present of a pattern shift & then plenty of white stuff. .