NavarreDon

MPH? .

Hmmm….sounds familiar! .

Sorry if already posted! https://x.com/wxtca/status/1841103250105516208?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Help coming from FL

https://x.com/nwsgsp/status/1840167601118556380?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

My thoughts and prayers are with all of you!!! Twitter is absolutely ablaze with WNC right now. If you have coverage and are on Twitter post it up. If you can’t and need something to be relayed post it here and I will send it. Jesse Farrell posted this is Asheville’s & WNC Katrina. The death toll will almost certainly rise and based on my knowledge it will take years to recover from this event! I am here to help how I can. Reach out to me & I will do my best. In the meantime be safe, Godspeed brothers!!! .

https://x.com/cc_stormwatch/status/1839521010095170007?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Navarre is currently 190 miles west of the center and my pressure is down 998.65! .

https://x.com/nwsgsp/status/1839348419032408339?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

https://x.com/nwsgsp/status/1839348419032408339?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

What up Mnt peeps! Just wanted to stop by and wish you all well. This will exceed the back to back 2004 impacts of Frances & Ivan (if you know you know!). Be ready for torrential rains or should I say more of it! Gusty wind with saturated soil will bring many trees down. Debris & mudslides will be likely. You’re a veteran group but for any newer residents it’s critically important you stay weather aware! Godspeed to all of you & you’ll be in my thoughts! Stay safe. .

Some amazing clouds this evening in Navarre, upper level outflow from the storm (ripping NE) & prefrontal storm clouds below. .

Perspective on the size of Helene, the TS wind field is jaw dropping! Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). .

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1838341891659829451?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Definitely have my eyes towards this situation as should anyone from Mississippi to Sarasota. So many variables at this point. Here is the first cone of PT 14 (Michael) just to drive that point home. .

Did not expect this!!! 000 WTNT31 KNHC 112056 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...FRANCINE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS THE EYE APPROACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 91.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES .

000 WTNT31 KNHC 102330 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES .

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1810134910725935146?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

To your point on broad. The wind here in Navarre has been sustained at 15-20 with a pretty regular gust pattern of 30+ since yesterday morning. .

PCB confirmed at EF-3….ouch! https://x.com/nwstallahassee/status/1745252730929877365?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Indeed! .

Possible tornado in Panama City Beach this morning. . https://x.com/jimmypatronis/status/1744738611122389464?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA

Some sporty weather here in Navarre but overall an under performer for us in the west. Things cranking up as the line moves east of Okaloosa County. Stay safe Skip!!! .

YIKES!!! National Weather Service Mobile AL 345 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 No mincing words here, our concerns for the overnight period tonight is serious. A incredibly impactful system has begun across our area and conditions will rapidly deteriorate throughout the night. The potential for significant severe appears likely across most of the area including the potential for several significant tornadoes (EF-2+) and damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. While the current severe risk is at an enhanced, the ceiling of this environment could easily support a more significant severe threat and only minor confidence questions are holding back from higher severe probs. Nonetheless, these confidences may not improve until we see the white of its eyes and this event needs to be treated seriously. On top of significant severe, intense wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, minor to moderate coastal flooding and extremely high surf will all be possible overnight tonight. Coastal and wind impacts will likely be on the higher end for non-tropical systems for the Mobile area. I`ll keep the synoptics short here as by this point its about small scale things and impacts. I think we all understand by this point there`s a rather strong system moving through. Severe Threat...The makings of a significant severe thunderstorm threat looks likely tonight and into Tuesday morning. An intense low level jet will usher plenty of warm air and rich Gulf moisture into the area with temperatures/dew points rising nearly 20 degrees over the next 18 hours. These factors will likely have no issue working instability inland across our area as the marine boundary lifts northward. All the high resolution guidance continues to have around 1000 J/KG of MLCape making its way to the highway 84 corridor with some guidance hinting at near 2000 J/KG near the I-10 corridor. On top of the instability the shear will be absolutely insane with 0-1 KM SRH values in the warm sector hovering around the 500 to 700 m2/s2 and with no surprise, forecast soundings continue to indicate very significant low level curvature. Intense jet dynamics in the right entrance region of the upper jet will likely lead to widespread convective coverage beginning around midnight, likely overcoming the intense shear allowing for storms to rapidly organize. This event will go from 0 to 100 very quickly as the upper jet moves in and the intense low level jet increases. Rain will likely begin well before the severe weather arrives and things will likely go from showers and a few elevated thunderstorms to numerous severe storms in a couple hours. DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. Expect two possibly three rounds of severe weather to be possible with rounds two and three capable of significant severe. The first of three rounds is a little more conditional as the marine boundary moves inland. Given the shear environment, relatively low freezing level heights and deep EL`s, elevated storms would be possible with some hail probably around 1 inch in diameter. This will likely occur prior to midnight and in the grand scheme of things this threat is a mole hill compared to the mountain ahead. The second round is when things will begin to rapidly go downhill as the clock strikes midnight (or around that time). Recent high res-guidance continues to uptrend in the possibility of a few discrete to semi-discrete supercells developing along a confluence band ahead of the main line as the marine boundary lifts north shortly around midnight or just after. Given the shear environment and the boundary, this environment would be more than supportive of strong tornadoes and if these cells truly are able to take full advantage of the environment then the ceiling may be higher. The big question for higher end potential is can these storms sustain themselves with a lot of cell interactions, intense shear, modest but quickly increasing instability and stay within the optimal boundary spot to remain tornado producers. Unfortunately, some of our strongest tornadoes locally have occurred in environments along these marine boundaries and warm fronts when they are able to sustain themselves within the optimal boundary mode. While we are still unsure about this potential, the high impact nature of this period warrants great concern and if confidence continues to increase this would likely be the driving force into any potential severe upgrades heading into the evening. Then final punch will arrives shortly after round two in the 2 am to 8am timeframe in the form of a rather strong QLCS. This heavily forced squall line will only intensify as the upper jet overspreads and the LLJ increases. The combination of strong kinematics and low level instability with 0- 3km cape values likely approaching 100k/kg or more will support strong vertical stretching in a incredibly rich vorticity environment. This environment will truly peak east of I-65 across the western Florida Panhandle and into south central Alabama. Based off recent research this environment will be primed for QLCS tornadoes and given the upper echelon shear environment, strong QLCS tornadoes (EF-2+) could be possible. Along with the tornadoes, strong damaging winds will also be likely with wind gusts in excess of 70 mph given 850 and 925 mb winds will already be high. This has the potential to be a rather intense severe event occurring overnight. Be sure to continue to stay updated and have multiple ways to receive warnings that are battery operated and charged as power may go out well before severe thunderstorms arrive. Wind Impacts...An extremely tight pressure gradient will develop over the area through tonight as the surface low pressure drops into the upper 980s. This will result in very windy conditions. Winds have already been gusting to 30 mph across the area this afternoon and are expected to increase into the evening. Winds well offshore have continued to climb with gusts to near 55 mph already. These winds will steadily move towards the coast this evening. A high end Wind Advisory has been issued for much of the area for wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Winds will be even higher along the coast with gusts up to 60 mph possible late tonight and early Tuesday morning as a powerful low level jet pushes into the area. A rather rare High Wind Warning has been issued for these coastal areas. The compounding impacts of increased winds and ongoing rainfall to saturate the soil will make trees and power lines more susceptible to being blown over outside of any thunderstorms. Because of this, power outages will be possible well before any severe thunderstorms arrive so it is very important to have multiple ways to receive warnings overnight. Be sure to charge battery powered methods of receiving warnings before going to bed and be sure to secure loose items outside. Beach/Coastal Hazards....Very strong onshore flow will result in dangerous rip currents and extremely high surf conditions at all area beaches. Surf heights of 10 to 15 feet are expected and will likely lead to beach erosion and coastal overwash along flood prone barrier islands. A High risk of Rip Currents is in effect through early this week and a High Surf Warning remains in effect through Wednesday morning. On top of the intense wave action, strong and persistent low level winds will push water inland leading to coastal flooding. The current forecast supports solid coastal flooding with coastal flood warning conditions potentially occurring within Mobile Bay. Given that these strong low level jet scenarios tend to over perform with coastal flooding, we went ahead and upgraded Mobile Bay to a Coastal Flood Warning. Expect potentially moderate coastal flooding across most of the barrier islands and Mobile Bay. Heavy Rainfall... PWATS will steadily climb in advance of the system with values approaching the climatological maximum for this time of year. This moisture combined with better instability will result in some heavier rain rates this afternoon and overnight. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall in a short period of time, but given the progressive nature and the fact that we are still in a drought, there is still low confidence in significant flooding impacts. Most areas will likely see 2-4 inches of rainfall now through Tuesday with some areas potentially picking up 6 inches in this time frame. A localized advisory or warning cannot be ruled out. This is about as serious as it gets across our area with respects to impacts. Please remain weather aware tonight and have an emergency plan in place. Be sure to have a way to receive warnings that will wake you up and quickly go to your safe place. Prep your safe place now as power outages might make things difficult tonight. Trust us we do not want to be issuing tornado warnings at 4 am either and hopefully things find a way to pan out to the better. We will be right here with you through the night! BB/03 .

Reminds me of the GSP crew back in the day! .