NavarreDon

To your point on broad. The wind here in Navarre has been sustained at 15-20 with a pretty regular gust pattern of 30+ since yesterday morning. .

PCB confirmed at EF-3….ouch! https://x.com/nwstallahassee/status/1745252730929877365?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Indeed! .

Possible tornado in Panama City Beach this morning. . https://x.com/jimmypatronis/status/1744738611122389464?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA

Some sporty weather here in Navarre but overall an under performer for us in the west. Things cranking up as the line moves east of Okaloosa County. Stay safe Skip!!! .

YIKES!!! National Weather Service Mobile AL 345 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 No mincing words here, our concerns for the overnight period tonight is serious. A incredibly impactful system has begun across our area and conditions will rapidly deteriorate throughout the night. The potential for significant severe appears likely across most of the area including the potential for several significant tornadoes (EF-2+) and damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. While the current severe risk is at an enhanced, the ceiling of this environment could easily support a more significant severe threat and only minor confidence questions are holding back from higher severe probs. Nonetheless, these confidences may not improve until we see the white of its eyes and this event needs to be treated seriously. On top of significant severe, intense wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, minor to moderate coastal flooding and extremely high surf will all be possible overnight tonight. Coastal and wind impacts will likely be on the higher end for non-tropical systems for the Mobile area. I`ll keep the synoptics short here as by this point its about small scale things and impacts. I think we all understand by this point there`s a rather strong system moving through. Severe Threat...The makings of a significant severe thunderstorm threat looks likely tonight and into Tuesday morning. An intense low level jet will usher plenty of warm air and rich Gulf moisture into the area with temperatures/dew points rising nearly 20 degrees over the next 18 hours. These factors will likely have no issue working instability inland across our area as the marine boundary lifts northward. All the high resolution guidance continues to have around 1000 J/KG of MLCape making its way to the highway 84 corridor with some guidance hinting at near 2000 J/KG near the I-10 corridor. On top of the instability the shear will be absolutely insane with 0-1 KM SRH values in the warm sector hovering around the 500 to 700 m2/s2 and with no surprise, forecast soundings continue to indicate very significant low level curvature. Intense jet dynamics in the right entrance region of the upper jet will likely lead to widespread convective coverage beginning around midnight, likely overcoming the intense shear allowing for storms to rapidly organize. This event will go from 0 to 100 very quickly as the upper jet moves in and the intense low level jet increases. Rain will likely begin well before the severe weather arrives and things will likely go from showers and a few elevated thunderstorms to numerous severe storms in a couple hours. DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. Expect two possibly three rounds of severe weather to be possible with rounds two and three capable of significant severe. The first of three rounds is a little more conditional as the marine boundary moves inland. Given the shear environment, relatively low freezing level heights and deep EL`s, elevated storms would be possible with some hail probably around 1 inch in diameter. This will likely occur prior to midnight and in the grand scheme of things this threat is a mole hill compared to the mountain ahead. The second round is when things will begin to rapidly go downhill as the clock strikes midnight (or around that time). Recent high res-guidance continues to uptrend in the possibility of a few discrete to semi-discrete supercells developing along a confluence band ahead of the main line as the marine boundary lifts north shortly around midnight or just after. Given the shear environment and the boundary, this environment would be more than supportive of strong tornadoes and if these cells truly are able to take full advantage of the environment then the ceiling may be higher. The big question for higher end potential is can these storms sustain themselves with a lot of cell interactions, intense shear, modest but quickly increasing instability and stay within the optimal boundary spot to remain tornado producers. Unfortunately, some of our strongest tornadoes locally have occurred in environments along these marine boundaries and warm fronts when they are able to sustain themselves within the optimal boundary mode. While we are still unsure about this potential, the high impact nature of this period warrants great concern and if confidence continues to increase this would likely be the driving force into any potential severe upgrades heading into the evening. Then final punch will arrives shortly after round two in the 2 am to 8am timeframe in the form of a rather strong QLCS. This heavily forced squall line will only intensify as the upper jet overspreads and the LLJ increases. The combination of strong kinematics and low level instability with 0- 3km cape values likely approaching 100k/kg or more will support strong vertical stretching in a incredibly rich vorticity environment. This environment will truly peak east of I-65 across the western Florida Panhandle and into south central Alabama. Based off recent research this environment will be primed for QLCS tornadoes and given the upper echelon shear environment, strong QLCS tornadoes (EF-2+) could be possible. Along with the tornadoes, strong damaging winds will also be likely with wind gusts in excess of 70 mph given 850 and 925 mb winds will already be high. This has the potential to be a rather intense severe event occurring overnight. Be sure to continue to stay updated and have multiple ways to receive warnings that are battery operated and charged as power may go out well before severe thunderstorms arrive. Wind Impacts...An extremely tight pressure gradient will develop over the area through tonight as the surface low pressure drops into the upper 980s. This will result in very windy conditions. Winds have already been gusting to 30 mph across the area this afternoon and are expected to increase into the evening. Winds well offshore have continued to climb with gusts to near 55 mph already. These winds will steadily move towards the coast this evening. A high end Wind Advisory has been issued for much of the area for wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Winds will be even higher along the coast with gusts up to 60 mph possible late tonight and early Tuesday morning as a powerful low level jet pushes into the area. A rather rare High Wind Warning has been issued for these coastal areas. The compounding impacts of increased winds and ongoing rainfall to saturate the soil will make trees and power lines more susceptible to being blown over outside of any thunderstorms. Because of this, power outages will be possible well before any severe thunderstorms arrive so it is very important to have multiple ways to receive warnings overnight. Be sure to charge battery powered methods of receiving warnings before going to bed and be sure to secure loose items outside. Beach/Coastal Hazards....Very strong onshore flow will result in dangerous rip currents and extremely high surf conditions at all area beaches. Surf heights of 10 to 15 feet are expected and will likely lead to beach erosion and coastal overwash along flood prone barrier islands. A High risk of Rip Currents is in effect through early this week and a High Surf Warning remains in effect through Wednesday morning. On top of the intense wave action, strong and persistent low level winds will push water inland leading to coastal flooding. The current forecast supports solid coastal flooding with coastal flood warning conditions potentially occurring within Mobile Bay. Given that these strong low level jet scenarios tend to over perform with coastal flooding, we went ahead and upgraded Mobile Bay to a Coastal Flood Warning. Expect potentially moderate coastal flooding across most of the barrier islands and Mobile Bay. Heavy Rainfall... PWATS will steadily climb in advance of the system with values approaching the climatological maximum for this time of year. This moisture combined with better instability will result in some heavier rain rates this afternoon and overnight. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall in a short period of time, but given the progressive nature and the fact that we are still in a drought, there is still low confidence in significant flooding impacts. Most areas will likely see 2-4 inches of rainfall now through Tuesday with some areas potentially picking up 6 inches in this time frame. A localized advisory or warning cannot be ruled out. This is about as serious as it gets across our area with respects to impacts. Please remain weather aware tonight and have an emergency plan in place. Be sure to have a way to receive warnings that will wake you up and quickly go to your safe place. Prep your safe place now as power outages might make things difficult tonight. Trust us we do not want to be issuing tornado warnings at 4 am either and hopefully things find a way to pan out to the better. We will be right here with you through the night! BB/03 .

Reminds me of the GSP crew back in the day! .

I don’t post much anymore except for tropical weather, and Mnt snow but this caught my eye and brought me over here. The Mets at MOB are great with severe weather and I don’t think I’ve seen an AFD like this from them ever! Very rare conditions for these part. Sorry for the long post but here is the disco… NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday Night) Issued at 413 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024 Where to begin. Probably with the fact that with the current trends, we have leaned towards higher confidence in an extremely high impact event for our area. Very strong winds, potentially moderate coastal flooding, high marine impacts and the potential for a significant severe thunderstorm event including damaging winds and potentially a couple significant (EF-2+) tornadoes. Honestly when you put all the potential impacts together this could be one of the more impactful non- tropical systems we ever had. Take this system seriously! Synoptic Overview...A rather potent upper low will eject into the Ohio River valley Monday into Tuesday night. The impressive nature of this system continues to be represented within ensemble guidance with 500 Mb heights at a climatological min within the ECMWF, meaning this is an anomalously deep low. With anomalously deep lows usually come very strong jet dynamics and right now looking at a 110 to 120 knot jet streak developing around the base of the upper low late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Little further down a powerful 70 to 80 knot 850 mb jet will develop over our area during the same time and unfortunately trends within the higher resolution guidance have even hinted at increasing to 85+ knots. This is relatively rare territory even in some of our more impactful events. At the surface, these intense dynamics will allow for a powerful surface low to deepen into the upper 980s as it lifts across northeastern Arkansas. Expect rain to likely begin Monday afternoon as the synoptic warm front lifts northward and persisting throughout the overnight hours. Rain may become intermittent for a brief period before the final line of storms pushes through early Tuesday morning likely clearing out as we approach the noon Tuesday timeframe. Given how dynamic this system is we expect a plethora of hazards to come. Severe...Unfortunately, things trended the wrong way for us amongst the high resolution guidance and the makings of a significant severe thunderstorm threat appears on our doorstep. As mentioned in yesterdays afd, extreme environments tend to end in extreme results and the expected environment is quickly trending towards extreme. Going into yesterday the limiting factor was the instability. As worried, the proximity to rich Gulf Moisture coupled with the intense low level wind field should have no issued working instability inland across our area as the marine boundary lifts northward. All the high resolution guidance has around 1000 J/KG of MLCape making its way to the highway 84 corridor with some guidance hinting at near 2000 J/KG near the I-10 corridor and has trended upward with time. Not great Bob, when that was suppose to be the limiting factor. On top of the instability the shear will be ludicrous with that 80 knot LLJ. 0-1 KM SRH values in the warm sector are hovering around the 500 to 600 m2/s2 with insane low level curvature and high streamwise component. It would be immature to not at least mention that sometimes these shear environments can be too much especially with lower amounts of instability much like last years; however, intense jet dynamics in the right entrance region of the upper jet will likely overcome all of those issues. Expect two rounds of severe weather to be possible with both capable of significant severe. The first round is a little more conditional as instability and synoptic ascent will be more limited compared to round two. However, this round will be along the lifting marine boundary around midnight. This will likely involve embedded supercells lifting with the boundary leading to the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes. Given the shear environment and the boundary, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. Then the real show arrives shortly after and persists through the overnight in the form of a rather strong QLCS. This heavily forced squall line will only intensify as the upper jet overspreads and the LLJ increases. The combination of strong kinematics and low level instability with 0-3km cape values likely approaching 100k/kg or more will support strong vertical stretching in a incredibly rich vorticity environment. QLCS tornadoes will likely be common with this line including the potential for a few strong QLCS tornadoes (EF-2+). Along with the tornadoes, strong damaging winds will also be likely with wind gusts in excess of 70 mph given 850 and 925 mb winds will already be high. This has the potential to be a rather intense severe event occurring overnight. Be sure to continue to stay updated and have multiple ways to receive warnings that are battery operated and charged as power may go out well before severe thunderstorms arrive. Beach/Coastal Hazards....Given the anomalously low pressures and tight gradient winds it will be outright howling across the marine waters. Winds have only trended upward since yesterday. Given the incredibly long fetch of strong winds, seas will quickly climb to high surf warning criteria. Surf heights along the coast Monday night through Tuesday will likely approach 10 feet plus leading to likely beach erosion, life threatening surf and rip currents and likely coastal overwash along flood prone barrier islands. On top of the intense wave action, strong low level winds will also push water leading to coastal flooding. Current PETSS guidance supports at least solid coastal flooding and with current trends we are quickly approaching coastal flood warning criteria Monday evening for Mobile Bay. For now the plan will be for a coastal flood advisory in the coming packages as confidence increases and we will have to monitor closely for a possible coastal flood warning. Nonetheless, the usual flood prone areas should expect at least minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding and overwashing. Wind Impacts...As if the rest of the discussion didn`t spell it out, it is going to be windy. Winds have trended upward with most of the area likely seeing gusts up to 50 mph even as far inland as highway 84. Along the coast winds will be peaked with gusts up to 60 mph possible as the strong low level jet and instability move inland. A rather rare high wind warning has been issued for the coastal areas with a high end wind advisory for the remainder of the area. The compounding impacts of increased winds, weekend trees from the last few months of drought and rainfall saturating the soil will likely lead to trees coming down across the area. Power outages will be possible well before any severe thunderstorms arrive which could lead to a nasty combination. Charge battery powered methods of receiving warnings before going to bed and be sure to secure loose items outside. Heavy Rainfall Impacts...Confidence in rainfall happening is high but the heavy rainfall and flooding does It seem as likely outside of maybe a few urban areas. PWATS will steadily climb in advance of the system and elevated instability north of the lifting warm front Monday evening will allow for a shot for some heavier rain. The issues are 1. we are still dry from the last few months. 2. the rather quick moving nature, especially with the second line could force things to be fully rate driven and not sure we get the rates long enough to overcome our relatively high flash flood guidance. If that first round of rain Monday evening is stronger and or the warm front gets hung up along the coast, then we might see some minor flash flood concerns develop. Right now the best area for heaviest rain is across southeastern Mississippi before the eventual squall line gets moving east. This is honestly a rather low confidence flooding situation and will likely be driven heavily on the progression of the warm front and rain rates. All and all Monday night into Tuesday looks to be impactful for our area with or without strong thunderstorms. The environment has continued to come together the full gambit of impacts are becoming likely. Keep up to date with this system as potential impacts may change as we get more details. BB/03 .

Yesterday 10/10/23 was the 5 year anniversary of Michael’s landfall on the Florida panhandle. With family still in St Joe Beach, we head over from Navarre 3/4 times a year. The progress is amazing but the scars still remain. Here is a special that WJHG in Panama City did on the anniversary yesterday. .

000 WTNT65 KNHC 300157 TCUAT5 Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 ...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WHERE THE CORE OF IDALIA MOVES INLAND... NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Idalia has strengthened further. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The minimum pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft has fallen to 960 mb (28.35 inches). The National Hurricane Center has begun hourly position and intensity updates on Idalia. The hourly updates will continue as long as Idalia's eye is easily trackable in ground-based radar data. SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 84.6W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES .

First of a few tornado watches: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0660.html .

The linemen have arrived!!! .

https://x.com/nwstallahassee/status/1696544257451216896?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

No expert here but looking at the water vapor, it looks like dry air might still be feeding into the SW side of Idalia? .

Recon data certainly suggests we have a cane imo. .

1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 Location: 21.2°N 85.1°W Moving: N at 8 mph Min pressure: 987 mb Max sustained: 70 mph .

https://x.com/treycejoneswx/status/1695944488068186158?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1695972446049112416?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Dr. Cowan’s video has some great info on this! .

Looks like St Marks area for landfall, FD was on point about strength errors. .

Levi has a great video up on Tidbits from yesterday. He goes into good detail with info on LL & UL atmosphere conditions that should affect 93L’s development. 6Z GFS looks odd to me but I’m no expert. Definitely have an eye towards this here in Navarre. .

Kinda surprised with the data they didn’t go 40. Dr Knabb said it’s a coin flip & the forecasters decision. Not a big discrepancy though.

Recon enroute now. Curious to see what they find.

Thoughts on 91L? Edit: up to 50% on the 6/1 8am update.

Was shocked to register 1001.2 imby this morning at 6:30 CDT, accompanied with wind gusts to 50mph+. It blew a portion of fence & gate down on the side of my house! .

Mike Seidel is reporting from Banner Elk on TWC. Just showed a web cam from Highlands and it’s snowing pretty good. .