NavarreDon

12Z Euro is the stuff dreams are made of!!! .

Happy for all who cashed & especially those who over preformed! I’m really liking the pattern for the next couple weeks so, I might pop in or stick around. .

https://x.com/efisherwx/status/1878095662014747055?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

I’m really surprised also, it may end up with the N Mnts being the winners from this one. I certainly have some egg on my face at this point. .

Here is the long version, sorry for the length!: Mesoscale Discussion 0032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...northern Georgia...eastern Tennessee...far western South Carolina...western North Carolina Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 102130Z - 110030Z SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy snowfall along the high terrain and mixed precipitation likely in the afternoon/evening across portions of east TN/north GA and western SC/NC. DISCUSSION...A broad region of heavy precipitation continues to shift northward across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee/northern Georgia beneath enhanced mid-level flow and forcing from an upper-level trough. This precipitation shield will continue to lift north and eastward this evening, bringing an increase in the precipitation rates across the region, extending into western North Carolina through time. Moderate to heavy snowfall will be possible (with occasional 1" hr rates) across the southern Appalachian Mountains in eastern Tennessee. Further south across northern Georgia into the western Carolinas, profiles will continue to support additional accumulations of freezing rain. NAM/RAP sounding analysis across northern Georgia into South Carolina show a warm nose at 850 mb with surface observations indicating temperatures remain in the upper 20s to 30s. Occasionally, mixed precipitation/sleet will be possible. .

2.5” is the report from my brother’s hood up the Mnt outside of Glenville. .

Congrats folks! Gonna need lots of pics!!! .

Ahh the memories!!! Which way will the pendulum swing? Hoping it’s towards the over performing end for you Jason, you’ve paid many a dues! .

Thermal Profiles look a bit better than forecasted out west. This could bode well for some of you guys. .

https://x.com/nwsgsp/status/1877402548304257266?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

+1 on this, really good analysis! .

Evening all! Been busy all day but wanted to say a couple things from afar. Try not to be guilty of model hugging. Use historical data as well. There a so many variables in a system like this one. Even Mets are unsure what will happen. Personally using the above I think the storm will meet or exceed expectations for the most part in the Mnts. Enjoy the next 36 hours as much as you can because the chase is what we all live for. Good luck to all of you!!! .

Great pics up above this post as well as below! More good news from MOB’s afternoon AFD + my forecast for Friday below AFD snippet: Plenty of moisture and forcing will allow for precip chances to increase rapidly throughout the period. With no instability in place, expecting this event to primarily be a widespread stratiform precip shield as opposed to convection. Friday forecast: A chance of rain before 9am, then showers, mainly after noon. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 63. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. .

I used to travel Hwy 28 thru that area back in the day. That’s a nice spot to be in, thinking you might escape the mixing zone but it’ll be close. .

Not sure of your location and elevation as I don’t follow the board like I used to (congrats on the move from SC!). I think the warm nose may come into play in some of the foothills, that being said I’d bet you get your wish of snowballs & sledding. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the show!!! .

If I was up in the Mnts. My concern with gulf coast convection would be heightened if this was a monster storm. This one doesn’t seem to support it but you never know. Always a good idea to read up on downstream AFD’s. Below is a snippet of MOB’s overnight disco. These Mets are some of the best I’ve seen with severe weather. Long story short is I don’t see it being an issue for you all. The surface low will briefly bring a warm front into the coastal counties before a cold front follows quickly behind, but no tangible instability will accompany what will be a rather meager warm sector. .

Looks like a classic Miller A to me. I think the GFS and Canadian are sniffing this out. Questions will be, the Low track and how much moisture accompanies it. Changes always occur but this looks great for the Mnts. It doesn’t look like a monster but my early guess is there will be some OBS with 6”+ from the system. .

Good afternoon Mnt peeps! Hope you had a blessed holiday season. My prayers are for a continued recovery in the region! My snow spidey sense is going off about the upcoming weekend event. Historically & synoptically this set up provides the Mnts and to an extent the foothills a decent snow. There is still a lot to iron out but someone is probably going to have some fun. Hope you don’t mind if I pop in every now and then to give my 1.5 cents worth. .

Very likely we have a TS very soon if not already. .

There is a decent debris signature west of Tradition & PSL for the observed warning. .

Tornadoes are really ramping up now. As discussed earlier some of these are not your typical hurricane spawned rotations. https://x.com/weatherwithlaur/status/1844037683829710958?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

https://x.com/nstewwx/status/1843815942264107090?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

https://x.com/noaa_hurrhunter/status/1843704758282137649?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Didn’t Ian do that? (Edit it was @ 120mph prior to the ERC and then rapidly intensified to 160mph)

Wow!!! Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover, and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in 4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an 80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix 2007 in our records). .