NavarreDon

Model porn will keep you up at night! You fellas might want to pump the brakes a bit on the 2'-3' solutions. Not saying it won't happen or can't. I just would caution against verbatim model hugging. No matter what happens this is shaping up for many areas to cash with 12"+ totals which is amazing in it's own right! Exciting times in this thread for the next couple of days. Enjoy the ride folks!

This is a carbon copy of the WPC's %'s.

Here is some thoughts from the MOB office on where they currently think the surface low is headed thru their FA. This will pertain more to the Upstate SC & WNC crew. It might be worth the read for you guys up north. Down here I have to wonder if we will ever dry out! LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Another mild day expected Friday with daytime high temperatures climbing into upper 50s to lower 60s...within a few degrees of seasonal norms. Easterly surface winds will gradually strengthen during the afternoon and become southeasterly in response to an approaching low pressure system to our west. By Saturday night, an eastward propagating cold front is projected over the Western Gulf with a surface low just offshore of the Southwest Louisiana and Texas border with a warm front extending eastward across the Northern Gulf. There still remains a lot of variability between the models on the evolution of this system as well as its timing. Have trended this forecast package more towards the GFS and UKMET solutions of keeping the surface low and attendant warm front generally along the coast as if moves east, but did address the potential for more convection inland with increased PoPs and isolated thunderstorms due to the more northerly track advertised by the ECMWF, GEM and some of the GFS ensemble members. It currently looks like the best chance of precipitation will occur Saturday afternoon through Saturday night with rainfall amounts heaviest closer to the coast where forcing for ascent will be strongest and precipitable water amounts will approach two inches. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches appear possible at this time along the coast tapering off to 1 to 2 inches inland. Indications are this system will be relatively fast moving so not anticipating widespread flooding but localized flooding will remain possible. Another critical concern is whether or not the warm sector shifts inland if it does, this could lead to strong to possibly severe thunderstorms especially along the coastal counties of Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle. We will continue to monitor trends and adjust accordingly. For now, continued with the previous thinking of the surface low moving east along the coast with most of the surface based instability remaining offshore.

I'm over 4 years removed from Weaverville & reading a LT disco like this still gets me excited! Some of you guys are gonna be living the dream come the weekend! (Jason i agree with HT, I see no reason why the Asheville crew would get dry slotted with this one) .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 AM Tuesday: Confidence continues to grow that a significant winter storm will impact portions of the forecast area beginning sometime Saturday and continuing in earnest Sunday and possibly evening Monday. However, the details this far out are still sketchy at best as any small changes in the track or strength of the storm system or parent sfc high pressure to the north could make the different be mostly a cold rain or significant ice/snow. The greatest confidence in significant ice/snow accumulations continues to be across the mountains and east facing foothills where WPC continues to advertise a 50-70 percent chance of winter storm warning level ice/snow accumulations. The latest forecast blends the EC and GFS, leaning towards the slower EC in line with neighboring offices and WPC. Now for the forecast details as they stand now. Zonal flow will continue into the extended time frame Friday with surface high pressure continue to exert its influence across the region into Saturday. The net result will be fair skies with reinforcing cool and dry air Friday night as air damming or a wedge sets up east of the mountains Friday night, which will likely persist through the weekend. This will set the stage for the potentially significant winter storm as wet bulb temperatures fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s across the FA Saturday. An amplified upper trough will push through the southern Plains states into the Deep South Friday into Saturday with an attendant sfc low pressure system riding the Gulf of Mexico coastline before moving off the Southeast coastline Sunday. The CAD and increasing clouds and precip Saturday into Sunday will lock in cold temps with lows only in the 20s to 30s and highs only in the 30s to low 40s this weekend. This scenario looks to favor mostly wintry precipitation and possibly mostly snow across the mountains with a mix bag of precipitation across the NC Piedmont with some combination of rain or mixed precipitation further south into the Upstate of SC and northeast GA. While its too early to get into precipitation type details, wouldn`t be surprised to see more wintry look to precip across the region near onset and towards the end with more rain or ice in between when the storm is closest and pushes warmer air at mid levels (aka warm nose) into the region. The heaviest precip currently looks to take place Saturday night into Sunday. In addition to the wintry this weekend, model guidance shows some potential for significant snow on the backside of the storm late Sunday into Monday. Now is the time to put your winter weather plan together to be prepared for this and future potential winter storms.

Sounds like you've gotten some good info but wanted to add a couple things. Your family is driving into the most prepared region in the South for handling winter weather & winter road maintenance. That being said it is probably nothing like you're used to in Central PA. If the snow, IP, ZR, comes in hard the roads pay the price of not enough equipment or manpower to keep up. Your family is also coming into a region with many micro climates (wide variations of weather over short distances). Finally what kind of vehicle they are traveling in will be critical also ie: 4WD, AWD, FWD, RWD. The Mets @ GSP & RNK are some of the best in the NWS due to dealing with the areas wide variety of weather and their disco's should be watched closely. Boone is under the RNK watch but with a storm riding in from the SW you should get a great idea about timing from GSP. As has been pointed out the best advice, in the area they will be traveling, is to beat the storm in! Good luck & safe travels.

Just enough time for Woodfin priorities!!! .

I used to love GSP's LT disco's like this one when I lived in Weaverville! Some will be disappointed but some are going to cash big time unless there is a dramatic change with this set up. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday: No major changes to the overall forecast from the 12z guidance. If anything, they continue to trend a little slower/delayed on the onset of precip, and also a little heavier in QPF. The 12z ECMWF has come in more northerly/inland with the sfc low track, and results in warmer thicknesses across the FA thru the event. This allows a stronger warm nose, and perhaps, more of a mixed bag of p-types, versus more ra/sn that previous runs suggested. I opted to blend a little 12z ECMWF into the partial thickness p-type nomogram tool for this forecast. Still get a lot of snow in the mountains and the I-40 corridor with this solution, but if the new ECMWF trend holds, these values will likely be a lot lower, due to the sleet/frza mixing in. With all that said, it still looks like a significant winter storm on tap for most of the mountains and adjacent foothills in NC, while the Piedmont south of I-40 is highly uncertain. Temps will start out below normal Friday, as a reinforcing cold front pushes thru. Then classic cold air damming sets up Friday night thru Sunday, as a strong sfc high builds in across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The heaviest precip looks to be mainly Saturday night into early Sunday, but that time may change slightly as we get closer to the event. Temps will be tricky with the CAD. I stuck close to WPC, but these may be too warm within the heart of the CAD wedge.

Pretty darn exciting LT disco by GSP for this far out! .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 410 AM Monday: Threat for significant winter weather next weekend continues, especially for the NC mtns and adjacent piedmont and points north. However, confidence is very low on the exact details. The 00Z EC was preferred for the extended given its better consistency and it falls between the faster and warmer operational GFS and the slower and colder GFS ensemble members. Thursday into Friday will be the quiet before the storm. Zonal flow aloft will prevail during this time with surface high pressure weakening and shifting southeast of the FA Friday. A northern stream disturbance passing to the Thursday night north may bring some clouds to the mountains with an outside shot at a few snow showers. Otherwise expect increasing clouds by late in the day Friday ahead of a surface low pressure system developing along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will warm some into Friday but will likely remain below normal. The surface low is currently expected to track near the northern Gulf Coast Friday into Saturday before crossing FL and arriving somewhere near the Southeast coast Sunday. the timing and location of the low would support continued increasing clouds with precipitation starting sometime Saturday, possibly late in the day. Most guidance shows a 1030mb+ sfc high pressure system building into the Mid Atlantic states Friday night into Saturday just ahead of the storm system. This supports much colder air filtering into the region by Saturday with highs expected to only be around 40, setting the stage for the potentially significant winter storm. Saturday night into Sunday currently look like the period for the most significant precipitation with a strong southerly low level jet pumping moisture into the region above the cold dome of high pressure wedging down east of the mtns. Much uncertainty exists with the eventual precipitation type across the region. At this time it appears that the biggest ice/snow issues would be on the front end of the storm system. Although, if the fairly strong sfc high pressure system gets locked into the Mid-Atlantic states on some models suggest, then significant snow and ice will be possible, especially across NC. Although at least light snow and especially ice accumulations are possible even across southern portions of the FA as well. The forecast will likely change multiple times this week, but now is the time to begin putting a winter weather plan together for this potentially significant winter storm.

Synoptics & climo might argue against this. I'd be really leery of a cold rain in the Hayesville, Murphy area. Maybe even a rain to snow event in the Franklin area (elevation dependent in the SW). Central & Northern Mountains could get clobbered!

Hey guys!, Just wanted to jump in and say.....raise those eyebrows. This has the makings of a Mountain special. It will be interesting to watch the placement of the key players as time progresses. Right now it looks like the typical set up for big Southern low snow. I will be bumping in with some thoughts periodically. If I was most of you I'd be pretty excited to track this. As always there is the bust potential but someone should cash!

Yikes!

This would be a bad setup for the Mnts in WNC especially along the escarpment! .

Hahahahaha! Miss the snow but not the nonsense. On the bright side you only have around 90hrs to go!

Congrats fellas! Hope the new forum works well for you all.

Your blog was tweeted by someone I follow & I read it there. Great write up. My Mom said it was a fairly somber day in Joplin yesterday. (heightened by the events in Moore I'm sure) After moving there from the Ft Lauderdale area. She is more certain than ever she will spend the rest of her life in Joplin. The will of the people there along with the kindness just over whelm her. She had to stop by Wal Mart yesterday & a random group of people where collecting the same supplies JoMo spoke about to send to Moore. She pitched in and did her part & then just broke down. When I talked to her last night she was just astounded by the acts of the people in the Midwest.

NWS-SGF marks the 2 year anniversary of the Joplin Tornado with a summary of the events. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011may22_summary

Found this on my computer.

+1!

Hey JoMo, Just wanted to say Merry Christmas to you & all the people of Joplin. I talked to my Mom last night & she just broke down. She said the will and fortitude of the people is just so overwhelming. Every time she starts to feel sorry for herself she hops in her car and drives around town. She has lived in Joplin for about 2 years now and she says she will never leave because of the people. Bless you all & may this coming year be one of more rebuilding and healing.

Awesome thread! Not just for the newbies, but for everyone. I would add these 2 links to the RUC & the HRRR for when it's go time. Great job Burger. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=11&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=13&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

Nice find & impressive work. Props to you and Shaggy

Fishing out of Destin in April. Not up to speed onsizing a pic. I can delete if to big.

Talked to my Mom tonight and she told me about this story. Have to say it brought a tear to my eye. Seems like an amazing comm. you have out there JoMo! http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/05/30/eveningnews/main20067397.shtml