NavarreDon

Not only likely but, the euro had been showing a LA landfall until the latest run. This is from MOB's overnight. Global spectral models are in general agreement projecting the upper level trough currently moving eastward over west Texas to essentially interact with the disturbance and rapidly advance it northeastward over the Gulf. This system is likely to become increasingly baroclinic in nature before reaching the northern Gulf Coast and remain a hybrid type system. The models do vary in the eventual track and timing of the system. With the ECMWF now projecting the low moving onshore east of Destin, Florida Saturday morning and the GFS near Port St. Joe, Florida. Keep in mind though there still remains a great deal of uncertainty in the eventual track as the disturbance has still not developed a low level center...so inherently there will be more error at this point in the model tracks, and the model forecast will undoubtedly change as the system develops. Also, since this system is expected to evolve into more of hybrid/baroclinic system the rain and wind impacts will possibly extend far from the center.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have increased and become a little better organized during the past several hours. Recent satellite wind data also indicate that the system is producing winds to near tropical storm force. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The low is forecast to approach the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough surf over those areas. Heavy rainfall is also possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. For more information about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days, see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

96L got it's cherry at 2:00 am

Nice write up from MOB on the possible impacts for my forecast area. SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/... Attention through the short-term forecast period will focus on the potential sub-tropical storm likely to develop across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A disturbance now organizing within the Bay of Campeche will begin to lift northeastward by Thursday night in response to southwesterly steering flow to the east of an upper level low pressure system over central Texas. The disturbance will likely become entangled with the upper low and frontal boundary initially stalled to it`s north. There will likely be a brief period where shear may relax slightly on Friday before the system interacts with stronger westerlies aligned along the northern Gulf Coast ahead of the next approaching upper trough. This may allow for some gradual strengthening of the surface low before reaching the northern Gulf of Mexico and becoming increasingly sheared. This system is likely to become increasingly baroclinic in nature before reaching the northern Gulf Coast and remain a hybrid type system. The potential for this system to be truly tropical when reaching the Gulf Coast appears low at this time. The ultimate track, timing, and intensity of the system is also in question as there remains model differences. The ECENS is further west and weaker with the GEFS to the east and stronger. This system has yet to form a low level center and there will likely be shifts in model guidance until this occurs. In addition, since this system will not likely be completely tropical in nature, there likely will be wind and rain impacts far from the center. At this point, we will continue to indicate increasing rain chances, gusty winds, and potential coastal flooding across our forecast area from Friday through Saturday night. Impacts will depend upon the eventual track and intensity. Please continue to monitor the latest forecast through the end of this week into the weekend. /JLH .

18Z GFS never gets below 1000. Looks like 1-4” for most of the Panhandle. .

System is now invest 96L https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=ir

Up to 50% on the 8:00am update. Totally agree on the drought buster benefits. It has been unbelievably dry in Navarre! .

Up to 40% for this little ditty. Not an expert but seems like lots of shear to deal with? .

Awesome job keeping this thread updated HA, really appreciated!!! NHC leaning heavily towards the Euro & friends. Will be interesting to see what verifies.

The northern gulf is bath water! 85+ in almost all areas. Pensacola & Mobile are in line to shatter warm records for September. Mobile has or is forecast to have highs in the 90’s every day but one (89). It was warm last year before Michael but it’s been down right hot this September! Might not be relevant to Karen but if a system affects us it will definitely have ample fuel in the form of water temps. .

95L gets its cherry, 50% 2 day, 70% 5 day. .

95L up to 60% on the 5 day 8:00 am NHC update. . ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Delete word and correct number For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Limited development of this system is anticipated today or tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida during the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Delete if already posted. .

NHC down to 10% on 48hr and 5 day due to dry air & shear......sounds familiar for the N Gulf! .

Nice call out on this. MOB talks about it in their morning short term: .SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...A large upper trof extending from the eastern states into the north central Gulf steadily weakens during the period while an upper high remains anchored over the 4 Corners region. Another upper ridge over the western Atlantic gradually begins to build into the eastern Gulf meanwhile as the upper trof weakens. At the beginning of the period, a cold front will be located just off the mid Atlantic coast, across northern Florida, and extending westward across the northern Gulf. The frontal boundary lingers generally in place through Thursday night and gradually weakens. That said, there is the potential for a surface low to develop somewhere along the weakening frontal boundary, and this development would occur in a rather weakly sheared environment (generally <10 knots 1000-400 mb). While nearly all guidance shows no significant development of a surface low along the boundary, weak boundaries like this that stall in the Gulf within a weakly sheared environment have later on sometimes spawned tropical systems. For that reason, the National Hurricane Center has introduced a 20 percent chance of tropical cyclone development mainly within the time period beginning Thursday and lasting into Saturday. Note that this potential system is not associated with Tropical Depression Three, currently located between the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula, which is expected to meanwhile drift northward. For the forecast, have gone with mostly dry conditions through the period except for small pops near the coast and will need to closely monitor for the possibility of a system developing in the Gulf and how this might affect the area. Highs on Wednesday will be mostly in the upper 80s then around 90 on Thursday. Lows Wednesday night range from the mid 60s inland to around 70 at the coast, with a modest warming trend for Thursday night when lows range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through the period. /29

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an area of low pressure located near Andros Island in the Bahamas. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, only a slight increase in the organization of this system could result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or tonight. Additional development is not anticipated after that time due to strong upper-level winds. The low is expected to move northwestward around 15 mph today and north-northwestward to northward tonight and Tuesday, remaining offshore of the east coast of the Florida peninsula. This system will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the northwest Bahamas through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms could also spread over portions of the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight and Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Pasch .

Anyone notice the 18Z GFS around hour 240ish? .

8:00 am EDT NHC Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Stewart

Saw this from the 12Z euro.... .

NHC ups 5 day to 40% https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

TAE has this graphic on their homepage basically picturing what Windspeed is saying above. .

Obviously keeping a close eye on this. So many variables but a possibility. At work still, has there been any consistency with today’s model runs? .

Looks like its snowing pretty good @ the Wolf via the cam. https://skiwolfridgenc.com/the-mountain/web-cam

Need some pics if possible 85! Snowing about 100 miles NW of us down here.