NavarreDon
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Posts posted by NavarreDon
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There is a decent debris signature west of Tradition & PSL for the observed warning.
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Tornadoes are really ramping up now. As discussed earlier some of these are not your typical hurricane spawned rotations.
https://x.com/weatherwithlaur/status/1844037683829710958?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA
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I’ve never seen a cat 4 or 5 have a second peak after an ERC higher than the first from what I remember. It’s probably happened at some point but it’s rare
Didn’t Ian do that?
(Edit it was @ 120mph prior to the ERC and then rapidly intensified to 160mph)-
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Wow!!!
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite
images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover,
and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican
radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall
presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak
flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the
pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in
4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an
80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix
2007 in our records).
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933 mb / 155 kt as of 11 AM
MPH?
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Looks like there will be an associated PRE with this setup as well before the potential TC reaches the peninsula:
Hmmm….sounds familiar!
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Help coming from FL
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My thoughts and prayers are with all of you!!! Twitter is absolutely ablaze with WNC right now. If you have coverage and are on Twitter post it up. If you can’t and need something to be relayed post it here and I will send it. Jesse Farrell posted this is Asheville’s & WNC Katrina. The death toll will almost certainly rise and based on my knowledge it will take years to recover from this event! I am here to help how I can. Reach out to me & I will do my best. In the meantime be safe, Godspeed brothers!!!
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Navarre is currently 190 miles west of the center and my pressure is down 998.65!
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What up Mnt peeps! Just wanted to stop by and wish you all well. This will exceed the back to back 2004 impacts of Frances & Ivan (if you know you know!). Be ready for torrential rains or should I say more of it! Gusty wind with saturated soil will bring many trees down. Debris & mudslides will be likely. You’re a veteran group but for any newer residents it’s critically important you stay weather aware! Godspeed to all of you & you’ll be in my thoughts! Stay safe.
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Some amazing clouds this evening in Navarre, upper level outflow from the storm (ripping NE) & prefrontal storm clouds below.
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Perspective on the size of Helene, the TS wind field is jaw dropping!
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km).
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Definitely have my eyes towards this situation as should anyone from Mississippi to Sarasota. So many variables at this point. Here is the first cone of PT 14 (Michael) just to drive that point home.
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Did not expect this!!!
000
WTNT31 KNHC 112056
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
...FRANCINE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS THE EYE APPROACHES
THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING
ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 91.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
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That evening convective burst might just send Francine over the edge into hurricane status.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 102330
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
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Major Hurricane Rafael
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
Very likely we have a TS very soon if not already.
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