NavarreDon

One of my best friends (now retired) was a flight surgeon and spent a good bit of time at NAS Pensacola. We will always have a piece of the Mnts in our hearts but we love living here. Thank you all for the kind words and letting me share my out of place posts in your thread! .

https://x.com/nwsmobile/status/1882145805613838512?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

https://x.com/iembot_mob/status/1882022996195389884?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Navarre FL 7.75” for a final tally. 16 degrees for the low this morning. Milton FL 20 miles north of me shattered the all time Florida record for snow with 8.8”. It’s been an event that I can’t wrap my head around! .

Good morning from the Panhandle of Florida Mnt & Foothill Peeps, we ended the event with 7.75” of snow & some drifts upwards of 16”. It’s currently 16 degrees. This has truly been a historic storm down this way. Records have been shattered from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Thank you for letting me share my excitement in your thread!!! .

Up to an astounding 7” here in Navarre & still snowing!!! Finding it hard to wrap my head around it. .

Last pics before dark of what has been one of the most surreal snow days of my life! 24 degrees and still snowing! .

Still puking!!! .

Still puking in Navarre, over 4” best I can tell with the wind. We have some 12” drifts. .

Come to Florida they said, it’ll be sunny & warm! 25 and this….yes I’m loving it. .

I’m butting in again, I’m just floored! When I think it can’t get harder it does. This is truly a once in a lifetime event for the Gulf Coast. .

Puking snow in the Panhandle of FL!!! .

Indeed!!! .

Double post

27.5 with this…. .

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Light snow has commenced in Navarre FL!!! .

Sorry for barging in on this thread but you guys are my snow homies! Consider me stunned! https://x.com/nwsmobile/status/1881744640015311354?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Temp 31 dew point 10, here at the beach in the FL Panhandle. 2”-5” is the forecast. Find it hard to believe but, we shall see! .

Hurricane Hunter is sampling out in the gulf to aid the models with this system. .

Hahahahahahahaha!!! A+! I feel like I’ve entered some alternate reality and I’m back living off of New Stock Rd in N Asheville! Here is my pinpoint NWS forecast hot off the presses…. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Here is a snippet of the MOB AFD, I recommend a full read if you have a chance, ...A major, potentially historic winter storm is likely across the area Tuesday through Tuesday night... Overview: Confidence has increased in a major to historic winter storm for the forecast area, particularly across the southern half of the area in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Forecast guidance this morning and so far early this afternoon continues to favor a corridor of heavier snow nearer the coast, with snowfall totals throughout the event on the order of 1 to 3 inches areawide, locally up to 4 or 5 inches over the southern half of the area. Confidence on higher snowfall totals exists across the southern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor. This storm has the potential to be historic for portions of the forecast area, with Mobile`s 24hr snowfall record being 6" set in 1895, and Pensacola`s 24hr snowfall record being 3" set in 1895.

Hello all, sounds like it’s been a decent January for you. I really thought this storm would trend north based on history with these systems. Boy was I wrong! I realize there is a dedicated thread for this but I wanted to share this here (mods please feel free to move if needed). Below is part of the MOB AFD from this afternoon. It’s certainly something I never thought I’d see. We are less than a mile from the water so I’m sure we’ll have some mixing issues. Sorry for the long post and the lack of relevance! Winter Storm Likely... A potentially significant winter storm is expected to affect areas along the northern Gulf Coast on Tuesday. At this point, the "dry scenario" is pretty much off the table, and with high probabilities suggesting that much of the area will see at least 1 to 2 inches of snow, the entire local area is now under a Winter Storm Watch from 6am Tuesday morning through 6am Wednesday morning. Although there are still some precip-type uncertainties along the coast, this will likely be an all-snow event for much of the local area. Along the coast, there may be just enough of a warm nose around the 850mb level to allow for some sleet pellets to be mixed in. Otherwise, looking at temperature profiles prior to the onset of precip, the dendritic growth zone looks to become fully saturated by around 09z-12z overtop a very dry 0-1km layer. Precip should initially start off as virga, or as very light flurries. Over the following couple hours, the dry lower levels will begin to moisten and cool (due to wet bulbing effects), likely bringing surface temperatures/dew points into the 20s. By this point, heavier snowfall rates will become realized and due to the colder temperatures at the surface, snow will start to accumulate. Looking at ensembles, the probability of accumulated snowfall greater than 3 inches continues to increase in comparison to previous days. Probabilities now stand at roughly 40 to 60 percent, which is why we are becoming increasingly concerned that this will be a significant event for the local area. If snow amounts over three inches actually occurred at KMOB, this would place us in the top 5 for historic snowfall amounts on record for the site. If three inches of snow occurs at KPNS, this would be actually be the highest accumulating event since the late 1800s! It should also be noted that probabilities have been pushed further to the south over the past couple days, with the best probabilities lining up around the I-10 corridor. Although there could still be some more minor fluctuations to where the heaviest snowfall will occur, these trends could lead to some major problems along our coastal counties. We urge residents and visitors to continue monitoring the forecast closely over the next few days and to begin preparing for this event. .

Wowsers!!! If only…. .

Several things to consider, a week or so out, synoptics, history, & so on. With all that being said. The 6Z GFS is about as good as it gets for a Mnt paste bomb. If the model holds on to this, look for it to tic north as time goes on. .

One of the best pics I’ve ever seen! .