Seminole

I take those long range forecasts with a grain of salt but those fronts sagging that far south this early in the season is not the norm.

That is a ton of SAL in the Atlantic basin

A ton of SAL out there right now.

Very interesting regarding the Gulf Coast of FL. 1956 Flossy, 1975 Eloise, 1985 Kate and 2000 Gordon were all panhandle or nature coast storms. With the exception of Kate, all were September storms. Thanks for putting this together.

I was in Tallahassee for Kate then attending FSU. The amount of trees blown down was incredible. The only thing that made it not too bad was that it happened in November so living without AC for weeks was not too bad. And as for a city learning anything from Kate, that never happened. Tallahassee is still lined with many canopy roads with power lines right there amongst all those trees. Never lived in a city where power was so prone to go out because of tree limbs, squirrels you name it. The power grid I have on St. George Island is more stable than the Tallahassee power grid.

An issue with October is usually by then a couple of fall cold fronts typically make there way through North Florida and it does impact the SST's in the northern GOM. There are outlier years like 2018 which gave us Michael but those are rare. So far this season has been very similar to 2011, Southern Plains baking and the the S.E. East Coast stuck in a blocking pattern.

2011 was the second warmest summer in U.S. history. Deep south and Southern Plains states cooked that year under dome after dome of high pressure. DFW had 56 days of triple digits.

This year is shaping up like the 2011 Season. La Nina with the US east coast dominated with blocking High pressure.

Looks like the 12Z GFS backed way off of the potential Caribbean genesis.

It is in one hell of sheared out environment.

TS formation in the BOC in June happens more often than not.

I think it's reasonable to put a fork in October. November may have a surprise ala Kate 1985. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kate_(1985)

6Z GFS: Borderline CAT4

Borderline CAT 5 around Port Arthur

This will get some attention.

A lot of wind on the east side we are probably steady 50+ now

House has been swaying off and on since 2:00 AM. Steady 25 to 30 mph wind now. Looks like the bad stuff is a couple of hours away. I will post some pics when we get some more daylight.

Going to take a right hook here at SGI

Which may explain why the last NHC disco hinted at the intensity forecast shifting a little higher.

Hurricane David 1979 Hurricane David

I'm right in the bulls eye of that 20 inch rain total. I guess on the bright side I won't have to put water in the pool for awhile.

Naked swirls are just so much fun to follow.

Look like COC is over or near Inagua. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_band.php?stormid=AL062021&band=NightMicrophysics&length=24

The next 36 hours will have a lot of land interaction either directly over land or near it. Not exactly the best setup for a strong storm.

Louisiana in the cross hairs for both Marco and Laura on that run.