Seminole

6Z GFS is N. Ft. Myers landfall

Today that area has almost tripled in population.

As someone who lives in the Big Bend and on barrier island I do not share this sediment.

Primary energy is in the NW quadrant of the LLC per Flash Extent Density. I just don't see a relocation happening to the SW with this much energy is still centered around the LLC. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022

A ton of upwelling will be going on if the GFS is correct. Upwelling along with the cooler N. GOM water will keep intensity from going off the chain.

Rapidly weakens (+32 mbar) the last 36 hours before landfall. This reminds me of Opal 1995.

Does anyone have access to the 6Z GFS yet?

https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=GOES&area=GMex&plot=sst&day=0&loop=0 The Northern GOM has been trending for the past two weeks to toward cooler temperatures.

This is going to be what to watch for as far as direct impact is concerned.

I will have a front seat view.

A 4th year in the row of La Nina? Has that ever happened?

GFS is at least consistent with a Caribbean TCG. This run has it effecting Louisiana instead of scraping the Florida E coast.

This should grab some folks attention.

Those threads back then when he was on the chase was a perfect example how crowd sourcing info can pay dividends. Kind of nostalgic when you think about it.

SAL is still significant enough to strangle out any potential TC in the MDR.

If the disintegration of the Bermuda High in the later GFS runs comes to fruition it likely means any CV spin ups will be fish storms.

I think it is safe to agree that peak SAL is not going to happen until Mid August or even later given current conditions. Any TC formation would likely be in the GOM or Western Caribbean in the near term.

The past 2 weeks have been very dry around the coast of the big bend. We have storms build but don't drop rain until inland. The past 2 days have been a return to normal but like you this is our rainy season.

SAL is just brutal out there. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

I take those long range forecasts with a grain of salt but those fronts sagging that far south this early in the season is not the norm.

That is a ton of SAL in the Atlantic basin

A ton of SAL out there right now.

Very interesting regarding the Gulf Coast of FL. 1956 Flossy, 1975 Eloise, 1985 Kate and 2000 Gordon were all panhandle or nature coast storms. With the exception of Kate, all were September storms. Thanks for putting this together.

I was in Tallahassee for Kate then attending FSU. The amount of trees blown down was incredible. The only thing that made it not too bad was that it happened in November so living without AC for weeks was not too bad. And as for a city learning anything from Kate, that never happened. Tallahassee is still lined with many canopy roads with power lines right there amongst all those trees. Never lived in a city where power was so prone to go out because of tree limbs, squirrels you name it. The power grid I have on St. George Island is more stable than the Tallahassee power grid.