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Seminole

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Everything posted by Seminole

  1. Seminole
    None that I can recall. Everyone was on board the hyper active year bandwagon.
  2. Seminole
    No one seems to know what is wrong. I do find it interesting that the Sahara is experiencing years worth of rain during this quiet period of no named storms.
  3. Seminole
    Nothing to write home about behind that wave though.
  4. Seminole
    Very interesting read. The conclusion is that moderate TC activity occurs during this type of environmental setup. The data in the study is for 71 years. I don't think its a leap to postulate that rapid unprecedented ATL Nina cooling could swing the overall trend into the low/no TC genesis category.
  5. Seminole
    Does this potentially factor in with the lack of development in the MDR? https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/no-one-can-figure-out-why-the-atlantic-ocean-is-cooling-at-record-speed/ar-AA1pcupU
  6. Seminole
    Since 1950 there have been 19 landfalling hurricanes that hit the United States in October. Ten in Florida and six in Louisiana. That is roughly one every 4 years long term average. Some recent notables since 2016, include Matthew, Nate, Michael, Delta and Zeta. The past decade the frequency has increased with one every 2 years.
  7. Seminole
    Lots of dry air preventing development in the MDR.
  8. Seminole
    SAL has not abated to the degree it normally does by this time of year. Dry dusty air is entrenched in the MDR and across the Caribbean basin.
  9. Seminole
    Some of the other models are picking up on this. Yucatan and Western GOM would be likely targets with that setup.
  10. Seminole
    Lot's of SAL in that region hindering development.
  11. Seminole
    One thing Debby has done is cool off North Florida. Much less humidity today and cooler. Feels almost like Mid September. The cooler weather and upwelling of Debby will knock the SST's in the eastern GOM down some.
  12. Seminole
    Normally it abates by mid August. This year the SAL has been ridiculously high and there is another good size plume of it entering the MDR.
  13. Seminole
    SAL is still a real problem: https://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_car.html
  14. Seminole
    Debby is running out of time. What is happening looks very similar to the Euro solution.
  15. Seminole
    That is not how RI is supposed to happen. Dry air and running into shallower waters is my guess as to why.
  16. Seminole
    The Nature Coast cannot catch a break. Those folks are storm hardened since last year. These folks are prepared. They know what to expect.
  17. Seminole
    SE right quadrant fighting some dry air. That and now entering shallow waters the rest of the way will keep Debby from exploding before landfall. The NHC 85 mph max looks reasonable given this setup.
  18. Seminole
    Debby is starting to enter the West Florida GOM shelf. Sea depth will get shallower the rest of the way.
  19. Seminole
    100% on the coordinates. The 8:00 PM Advisory will likely confirm this.
  20. Seminole
    NNE and maybe a tad ahead of schedule.
  21. Seminole
    The 5:00 PM Advisory had Debby at 84.4 W and now it appears she is at 84.1 W. Definitely a turn to NNE.
  22. Seminole
    High density population right there.
  23. Seminole
    My son was 14 in 2012 and we were vacationing at Pink Shell Resort in Ft. Myers Beach. He made is Weather Channel debut when they showed a live shot of him bouncing around on a water trampoline in the middle of that Debby.
  24. Seminole
    NHC left Debby at 65 mph for 5:00 PM advisory. No pressure change noted by the HH. Another recon in a couple of hours.
  25. Seminole
    Live view from St. George Island Florida. We are riding it out along with a lot of other full time residents. https://www.blueparrotsgi.com/multimedia/livecam.htm
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