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Seminole

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  1. Seminole
    Right on top of my casa at St. George Island
  2. Seminole
  3. Seminole
    Over a 1000 miles apart from the GFS.
  4. Seminole
    6Z GFS further west and misses the GOM loop current. Still a solid CAT 3 with a massive wind field. Landfall near Port St Joe.
  5. Seminole
    A perfect run where the TC crawls along the loop current and explodes.
  6. Seminole
    The Euro has stayed steady with the trough not influencing the potential TC.
  7. Seminole
    Massive!
  8. Seminole
    If I am interpreting the 6Z GFS correctly. We have a high end tropical storm off the Panama City coast that somehow drifts south east and proceeds into the Apalachee Bay as a low end CAT 1. It then maintains high end tropical storm intensity to though the entire eastern seaboard and then regains hurricane intensity over Pennsylvania and New York (Subtropical?).
  9. Seminole
    The GFS has been all over the gulf coast of Florida the last 3 runs. Naples 00Z. Pensacola 06Z. Split the difference with Tampa 12Z. The 00Z run was interesting because after it crosses over Florida it hugs the entire eastern seaboard as a solid CAT 3 all the way to New York.
  10. Seminole
    I have all of that going for me and still ended up with 8 inches of water under my house from the complete inundation we have had for almost two weeks. The amount of water on our island rivals what we had with Michael in 2018. Granted some of that water from Michael was storm surge. This was purely a rain event in the Florida Big Bend. Absolute frog strangler rain event.
  11. Seminole
    Interesting that the anomalous readings this year are located in the vicinity where the ITCZ moved to. I believe the ITCZ was cited as misplaced 150 miles north of where it normally is.
  12. Seminole
    The path Francine took brought it over some the hottest SST's in the GOM. Definitely was a factor in RI.
  13. Seminole
    A heated Troposphere due to increased sunspot activity could definitely be a factor in the long lull of TC activity because of atmospheric stabilization between all layers of the atmosphere. The sunspot activity is now waning and we are now seeing a resumption in TC activity. Coincidence or not it still warrants consideration as a possible cause for the TC lull despite all the other favorable conditions for development.
  14. Seminole
    It definitely is worth considering. The Maunder Minimum coincided with Little Ice Age. Sunspot activity or lack thereof definitely has an effect on weather and volcanism.
  15. Seminole
    A picture is worth a thousand words. That environment is very hostile tomorrow. I would not be surprised if a tornado watch is issued for areas east of landfall. This setup has all the makings for tornadic activity in the outer bands.
  16. Seminole
    The 12z GFS seems to agree with you.
  17. Seminole
    except 91L.
  18. Seminole
    The 6Z run has multiple instances of waves that just fluctuate across the Atlantic basin until one finally gets its act together east of the lesser Antilles around the 15th. Who knows?
  19. Seminole
    Those 540 lines are telling. South Florida and Texas are still in play for a major but the rest of the lower 48 the odds of a major is diminishing rapidly.
  20. Seminole
    The 6Z GFS out to September 21 with nothing significant. The amount of rain that is forecasted for the northern GOM during this period will cool off the SST's. Not a season cancel, but the odds of a tightly wound GOM monster major are trending toward unlikely.
  21. Seminole
    The fact we are discussing ST storms in early September seems misplaced and exemplifies how strange this season has gone.
  22. Seminole
    Or complete Bizzaro World and have University of Miami predict snow packs.
  23. Seminole
    How in the world do CSU have any credibility at all with that poor a track record? They consistently over estimate and the media hypes their over estimate every year.
  24. Seminole
    Factors like solar activity and volcanic activity are not data points used in the models. Both impact weather.
  25. Seminole
    Some interesting snippets regarding the 2022 Tongo volcano and how it may be related to what is going on with the ITCZ and Hadley Cell. Solar Activity also cited as a possible culprit. https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/atlantic-tropics-are-completely-broken
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