Seminole

Daily mail loves click bait. That is a whopper tale they are spinning for those clicks.

Interesting article about housing construction since Hurricane Harvey. Apparently that biblical flooding event changed nothing. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/2025/houston-metro-floodplain-construction/?noapp=true&utm_content=img&sid=6899cebb64b7fc37ca04ba24&ss=P&st_rid=null&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Business&utm_campaign=hcrn | editorial features

All of your points lead me to think that perhaps we are entering another AMO Inactive period. If volcanic activity is in fact an influencing factor with AMO Inactive periods should we look at the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption as a possible catalyst that started another AMO Inactive period? "The Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai is a submarine volcano in Tonga that had a massive, explosive eruption on January 15, 2022, which produced a significant tsunami and a record-breaking volcanic plume that reached the mesosphere. This eruption, one of the largest in the past 300 years, generated shockwaves that propagated through the atmosphere and tsunamis across ocean basins, including the Americas and Japan."

CAG system late September to early October timeframe would be a very likely scenario.

I appreciate the posting of the UK model because like you stated it is often overlooked.

A homebrewed BOC or Caribbean system that affects the Gulf region would have different outcomes based on where in the Gulf it goes. The northern Gulf SST's are a few degrees cooler than the southern gulf. Big SST difference between NE Gulf and SW Gulf. Any home brewed system that goes into the northern Gulf would have some environmental challenges to clear to make MH status. Southern gulf (S Texas or SW Florida) would need to keep their guard up because conditions are ripe in these areas.

https://www.outerbanks.org/plan-your-trip/webcams/ OBX webcams. Surfs up!

This is an interesting take regarding AMO activity. The conclusion makes sense when you connect volcanic events during the inactive period timeframes. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abc5810 Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing

It makes plausible sense.

Just some food for thought over the long haul. We have been in an AMO Active period since 1995. When you look at the history of AMO Active and Inactive periods those are historically 25 to 30 years long. Historically we are due to return to a AMO Inactive period and perhaps this is a transition year back to an AMO Inactive period.

SAL is currently a problem in the MDR and Caribbean right now. This looks more like July than September. https://www.wyff4.com/article/saharan-dust-suppresses-tropical-development-during-peak-season/66012941

Frozen rain on St. George Island.

40 I'm east of you on St. George Island. 40 and heavy rain now.

Well this is a new one. Hurricane Hunters flying into the winter storm. https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2025/01/21/wild-weather-heavy-snow-sweeps-across-gulf-coast-months-after-damaging-hurricanes/