Seminole

Frozen rain on St. George Island.

40 I'm east of you on St. George Island. 40 and heavy rain now.

Well this is a new one. Hurricane Hunters flying into the winter storm. https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2025/01/21/wild-weather-heavy-snow-sweeps-across-gulf-coast-months-after-damaging-hurricanes/

Not an area forecast discussion you see everyday in Florida. The last paragraph had me laughing. 434 FXUS62 KTAE 211124 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 624 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 425 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 KEY MESSAGES... -A Winter Storm is expected across the area today and tonight with potentially significant snowfall and ice accumulation totals. -Everywhere could see a mixture of precipitation types, although areas further north and west are more likely to get snow while areas south and east are more likely to get sleet and/or freezing rain. -There is a low to medium chance (20-40%) of significant and very impactful ice accumulation across portions of the FL Big Bend and south Central Georgia. If realized, significant impacts to trees and power lines are likely. -Snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast across portions of the FL Panhandle, SE Alabama, and SW Georgia, although there is a low to medium chance (20-40%) of accumulations of 6+ inches. -Regardless of wintry precipitation, extremely cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills are expected overnight. Forecast wind chills are in the 4 to 17 degree range, which can absolutely be dangerous or even deadly to unprotected persons. A developing low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico is already bringing snow and ice to the Texas and Louisiana coasts this morning. This system will continue to deepen and move eastward towards the area today as a shortwave swings across the base of a large trough positioned over much of the CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring increasing moisture up over a layer of much colder, drier air at the surface. As precipitation falls into this layer at the surface, it will gradually cool and moisten over time. Once enough moistening occurs, wintry precip will begin to reach the surface and accumulate. Surface temperatures will matter quite a bit for eventual impacts of wintry precipitation. The sooner temps fall below freezing, the sooner accumulation of snow and/or ice will begin. It`s a bit concerning that we`re already seeing some returns aloft on radar across the area this morning, indicating that we may be getting a quicker start to the moistening of the surface layer than previously expected and therefore a sooner onset of impacts. For that reason, we have pushed up the Winter Storm Warnings by a couple of hours to account for this. Mixed precipitation will be possible everywhere, although areas roughly from Panama City over to Tifton are most likely to see mostly snow. Areas further southeast including Apalachicola, Tallahassee, and Valdosta are more likely to see a mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain. The Southeast Big Bend (Perry, Cross City) are more likely to see predominantly rain and freezing rain. These differences are likely to hinge on razor thin changes in the surface temps and vertical thermal profile which could very easily change. Snow and ice accumulation amounts remain similar to the previous forecast if not increased just a bit. 2 to 4 inches of snow are possible across portions of the FL Panhandle, SE Alabama, and SW Georgia with lower amounts elsewhere. Ice accumulation of .1 to .25 inches are possible across the FL Big Bend and south central GA. However, there is a low to medium chance (20-40%) that a band (or bands) of heavier precipitation sets up somewhere over the area. Models are suggesting frontogenesis may occur along a southwest to northeast oriented line at the 850 to 700mb level. Wherever that occurs could really enhance precipitation rates and lead to more accumulation than expected. If in the snowy area, I would not be surprised if we saw 6+ inches of snow underneath that band. If it occurs over the sleet/freezing rain area (particularly the FL Big Bend and south central GA), significant and impactful ice accumulation will be possible. Regardless of winter precipitation, dangerously cold conditions are expected tonight with low temperatures in the teens to mid 20s and wind chills ranging from 4 to 17 degrees. However, if there is more snow/ice accumulation than expected or even earlier in the afternoon than expected, temperatures may fall faster and end up even colder than currently forecast. Please, please take this system seriously. Finish your cold weather preparations this morning and be prepared to lose power and avoid travel for a couple of days. Check on your neighbors, family, and friends; particularly the elderly or other vulnerable populations. Take care of any animals, pipes, or plants. Playing in the snow is fun, but make sure you are dressed warmly in loose fitting layers and change into warm and dry clothing as soon as you`re done. Monitor for signs of hypothermia and frostbite.

Question: Wouldn't this current trend open up the flow of moisture from the GOM vs suppressing it with a flatter front?

You do not see this too often in Florida. The scale of the impacted areas is what really sticks out to me.

This tread needs some cheese with all the whining going on. The gulf coast is in play for snow amounts not seen in 36 years. Enjoy this rare event.

This would shut most of I-10 down in FL and parts of 1-75. I-95 in JAX would be affected also.

My sea grapes will not survive this. Wow!

Climate Change has happened before and will happen again. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0959683617693898?journalCode=hola https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum#:~:text=The Maunder Minimum occurred within,believed to be volcanic activity.

Multiple Surge Cam feeds here

I thought that once we are inside 48 hours the Hurricane Models are preferred over the global models.

Change their tidy whities after what they just witnessed.

Here in the panhandle if you have an older home that is not on pilings you are looking at 40K annually to insure. That is why most are uninsured.

It always amazed me how many homes near the Tampa coast are not on pilings. Luck as it seems may have finally run out.