CarlislePaWx

The Dynamic Duo is back??

It looks worse than it is. The main precip for you and me is modeled to be winding down substantially by 3-4am. When the snow gets really light there sometimes can be freezing rain/drizzle mixed in. I would say 99% of the entire event is all snow for both of us. I also have no idea why they are calling heavy snow, snow showers. I can almost guarantee you that once they issue the winter storm warning tomorrow the verbiage will have just become "snow".

Nice. Basically the same here...light snow continues, 32.7 degrees with 0.3". Nice solid whitening (that doesn't mean the grass has disappeared).

By the way, I forgot to mention that I recorded 0.48" of rain before the changeover. Back around 5am I woke up hearing heavy rain.

Wow. I haven't seen the probability maps. Cumberland county was the epicenter of the Jan 2016 storm. I got 35" out of that one. Temp 32.7 with a good moderate snow falling as more areas are turning white.

Finally all snow here and approaching moderate intensity. Temp 32.9 degrees. Just beginning to whiten the ground and mulch. Looks nice.

Incredible...both 18Z Nam's have my snowfall at 5" again...second time in a row. All the globals had given up on tomorrow with none of them having more than 1" in the LSV. Shouldn't we expect the NAM to be the better model 24 hours out??

Canadian---10:1 first map, Kuchera second map. It gives all of us less than 1" with tomorrow, so the storm total is pretty much all from Wednesday-Thursday

Wow...both NAM's give me 5" of snow tomorrow. Will it come to fruition is the question?

Yesterday I mentioned Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast which contains a bunch of analogs of waning Nina's through winter. He gave double weight to several years which included 1995-96. Back in December of '95 I still lived in northern NJ. I distinctly remember a significant snowstorm just a week before Christmas. Actually, it was December 19th and I measured 13" from that storm. It was very cold and that kept a good chunk of the snowfall still around when the blockbuster January 6th storm hit. That winter the snow started falling in November and didn't stop until the middle of April! I measured 92" total snow for that record season which still stands for me as the greatest snow season of my life. I just think it's interesting to watch things unfold in the coming weeks.

You appear to be the big winner with 2-storm total of 24". I only get 18"...lol.

Larry Cosgrove, in his analogs for this winter has a very memorable La Nina winter in it....anyone remember '95-'96?

Was the NAO ever negative for more than a few hours last winter??

A foot for me? I'll take it.

A wintry low of 20.3 degrees early this morning with widespread frost. I also recorded a trace of snow late Tuesday afternoon when for about 5 minutes a moderate snow shower passed through.

Only recorded 0.24" of rain, but the winds still sustained 25-30 gusting to 40.

Wow...this wind is incredible. When the squall line came through I had several gusts to 52 mph! Then a lull of sorts, then a rapid ramp back up with frequent gusts to 45mph and 1 minute averages of 33 mph which is the highest sustained winds I have seen here in a year.

Let's hope we don't repeat the vanishing rainstorm of last week, for everyone's sake.

Plenty of frost around this morning. First ob at or below 32.0 with a low of 31.3 degrees. I mentioned a while ago that the average first date of a sub-freezing temp here in Carlisle is October 15th. So, only 2 days late. Even though it's going to be dry for the next 7 days it looks like temps will be glorious. Definitely love October weather!

0.85" storm total here through 9:00am with maybe a few more hundredths left. Month-to-date total is 1.08".

My grid forecast saw a 50% reduction in storm total rain for the "Delta" event. Instead of 1.5" - 3.00" I now have 1.00" - 1.50". How could those totals change by that much only hours before the event begins?

At 9:30am this morning astronomical Fall began. We continue to lose about 2 minutes and 40 seconds of daylight every day for about another month before the daily loss slows down. From today until December 21st we will lose about 2 hours and 40 minutes of daylight, bottoming out at roughly 9 hours 18 minutes on the first day of Winter. Regarding the frost, I don't think I've ever seen the NWS issue 3 frost advisories in the month of September, and most remarkably 3 consecutive days, and all still during calendar Summer. Wow.

33.3 degrees for my low this morning. Amazing, a Frost Advisory and it's still calendar Summer! I'm pretty sure I've never seen a Frost Advisory this early before. For the Carlisle area the average date of the first 32 degree low is October 15th while the last date is typically April 15th with 180 days for the growing season. Snow in May...Frost in September...what other crazy things await us in the final three months of 2020??

37.9 here this morning. I didn't get up to see if there was any frost. Wonder what is MDT's earliest 32 degrees or below date?

A crisp 39.9 degrees this morning. First breakthrough into the 30's of the season. Even ran the heat for 15 minutes to take the chill off a bit.