CarlislePaWx

I Presume everyone is heading back over to the general Winter thread?

Glad to provide it! Do you think I'm just a little detail-oriented (in real life)??

Good morning guys! Just got caught up on all the overnight posts. I can't tell you how thrilled I am that north central (and further west out towards PIT) hit the huge jackpot! It's funny that the models kind of got it wrong showing the axis of heaviest snow starting down here in the MDT area and running northeast from there with you guys north and west missing out on the mega-totals. Down here we have been spoiled with big ones, especially in the past 5 years. I know I've had at least 3 different storms that delivered a foot or more since 2016. It was almost becoming commonplace...lol. I was even fortunate enough to be the jackpot winner of the January 2016 storm when I recorded 35"...the biggest single storm of my life. Here is the rest of my storm data: 12/16 snowfall before the sleet= 5.3"; sleet = 1.5"; additional snow up until midnight= 1.5"; Total pure snow= 6.8"; Total frozen = 8.3" 12/17 (snowfall after midnight) = 2.0"; 2-day storm total = 10.3" Liquid equivalent snowfall before the sleet = 0.61" (SLR=9:1); Liquid equivalent of the sleet = 0.43" (SLR=3:1); Liquid equivalent snow up to midnight = 0.15" (SLR 10:1); Total liquid for 12/16 = 1.19" (SLR= 7:1) 12/17 Liquid Equivalent = 0.20" (SLR=10:1); Total Liquid for 2-days = 1.39" (SLR = 7.4:1) Finally, had the storm delivered 100% snow, my storm total would have been 12.8". I see many of us in the LSV got just around 10" which confirms my measurements. I wonder when our next snowstorm will be??

Heading off for the night. My midnight observation was moderate to heavy snow was falling following an entire hour with very heavy snow which totaled 1.5" between 11pm and midnight. This brings the storm total for 12/16 to 8.3". I'll be back in the morning with the final numbers on both snowfall and liquid equivalent. Temp down further to 24.8 degrees on fairly light northwesterly winds. Nite all!

Quick update at 11:15...now 100% snow with big flakes and back to as heavy as it was in the hour before the sleet arrived. Temp had gone up to 27 but has backed down to 26.1. Will do a full ob again at midnight.

Change back to snow here began about 45 minutes ago. Still some sleet but more snow now with big flakes. I cleared off my board again and melted down the sleet. The sleet measured 1.3" total and the sleet melted down to 0.43" of liquid! Not far from 3:1 ratio. So the 4 1/2 hours of sleet would have been 4" of snow had it not changed over. So total liquid for the storm is now 1.04" which consisted of 5.5" of snow and 1.3" of sleet for a frozen total of 6.8". Anxious to see if the big surprise it outside tomorrow morning when I get up. NWS calling for 5 to 9 inches overnight. Here's hoping. Big congrats to everyone west of here that have scored big this event!

Incredible if this comes true...like Blizz just said with the 23z HRRR giving MDT 7" of snow between now and the morning...the 0Z also has the exact same expectations. It is painting an additional 10" of snow over me by 12Z tomorrow morning. That would be absolutely astounding. Here's hoping...

Quick update...it continues to sleet moderately and I have just measured 0.3" of sleet in the past hour. That gives me a storm total 5.8". Current temp is 24.3 / 22.1.

Well folks, I don't have to tell you that I went over to all sleet very quickly shortly before 6:00. It went from the highest rates to CRASH. It's a good thing I'm 61 and not 31 or I'd be incredibly upset right now, especially when I was anticipating 18" possible with 12" a lock. Now who knows if the backside after the change back can deliver the real goods? I cleared my board and also melted down my snow because of the sleet falling. Some sleet made it in and has contaminated my liquid equivalent a little bit. I measured 0.61" of liquid for the 5.5" of snow. That comes out to 9:1 SLR. In all likelihood the true SLR was probably 10:1 or maybe even a little bit higher before the sleet arrived. Temp is 23.9 / 21.9 with light to moderate sleet falling.

Easily snowing at 2"/hour right now with huge flakes that are accumulating very quickly. I anticipate that at 6:00pm I will reach around 6.3" which will tie last winter's entire season! And it does it now in only 8 hours. Crazy!

At 5:00pm in Carlisle it continues to snow heavily. During the past hour I picked up an additional 1.6" of snow for a storm total of 4.4". Temp is 23.4/21.4.

Boy, the HRRR has the low literally going over Cape May and riding right up the coastline to around Long Beach Island, then suddenly exiting stage right.

At 4:00pm the heavy snow has just arrived within the past 10 minutes and it looks like it means business! During the past hour I picked up an additional 1.0" giving me a storm total of 2.8". Temp 23.4 / 21.2. Hopefully this keeps up as per SPC earlier.

At 3:00pm in Carlisle it continues to snow moderately. I have picked up an additional 0.7" in the past hour for a storm total of 1.8". Temperature 23.7 / 21.2. During this next hour the real fun should start to begin.

At 2:00pm I have picked up an additional 0.4" in the past hour and have a storm total of 1.1". During the past 15 minutes the rate has picked up noticeably but with fine flakes I would just call it a "heavy" light. The increased rate has caused my temp to drop a degree, now down to 24.3 degrees with a dew point of 21.4. As others have said, we're only about an hour away from the start of the heavy snow with inch per hour rates.

At 1:00pm I have measured 0.7" total over the past 3 hours...lol. Temp 25/22. Steady light snow with fine flakes. Definitely not accumulating quickly. Looking at the latest HRRR and going through it hour by hour it looks like my area reaches the 1.5" mark within the next 2 hours by 3:00. Then the fun begins with 1.0"/hour or more rates through 9:00pm. The heaviest hour is between 8:00 and 9:00 when 2.4" falls. At the end of the storm at 4:00am I have between 18 and 19". The sleet line just barely makes it up to me around 9:00pm and sticks around for an hour or so, then back to snow.

Just crossing over into moderate snow with larger flakes that will ramp up the accumulations. Officially have 0.1"! 26/21. I should be able to wetbulb down to 25 before noon.

BTW, I forgot to say that I'm rooting for you to minimize any mixing and to reach the high end of Horst's range of 12" for you!

Thanks! We'll see what happens. I think I'm hoping to hit 18", but who knows. Last night NWS had me 15-25", now they have me 14-22" ... I'm worried...lol.

Steady light snow now falling. Beginning to whiten the ground already! Still 27/18.

At 10:17am the first flakes are beginning to appear! 27/18.

Good morning all! I just caught up by reading 70 posts from midnight last night to the present. I must say, it is very exciting to see so many of us cashing in this time as well as so many folks participating in our thread. Creates a great sense of community. I'm so glad I'm retired now and can totally enjoy the storm from start to finish. My snowboard is all set along with my clear-vue gauge so I can measure liquid equivalents. One thing I noticed about the Euro is that it cut back the total qpf substantially from many of its prior runs at least for around MDT. Yesterday it was putting out 2.2" while this morning it's down to 1.4". On the other hand it looks like the GFS has traded places with the Euro and has bumped up its total storm qpf. Regardless, I look forward to posting all my measurements today and tonight. Should we consider creating a separate obs thread for this storm? We have done that in the past with big storms. Just a thought. I can just keep posting here as well. Good luck to all and stay safe!

During the Jan 2016 storm, Cumberland County was fortunate to remain under the "Death Band" for 3 hours. The snow rates during that period were 3.5" / hour. I got 10" in like 3 hours. Ended up with 35" total in the end. Biggest storm of my life. You gotta like this run for Lanco!

I don't think it's sleet. I looked at p-type and it showed it was snow. But, you never know.

3k NAM has 45-50 dbz reflectivity over Cumberland county for 3 hours between 0Z and 3Z! That's like 4"/hr rates. 22" total snow, 26" Kuchera total. WOW