CarlislePaWx

If you follow the GFS the real punch of the storm occurs between 3Z and 9Z. It gives me 4" between 3Z and 6Z which would be greater than 1"/hr snow rate. I'm hoping this one delivers the goods in full.

I read that discussion. The part you posted was actually written last night (where it says Tues PM Update) and not modified to reflect current forecasts. Sometimes seeing them do that drives me crazy. They write several paragraphs and then "recycle" them in future updates. I think they're just lazy at times.

10" - 11" for @Cashtown_Coop and @Bubbler86.

Uhhhh...the GFS now gives me 9" of snow by the end of Friday. That's quite a change!

Could it have been the winter of 1960-1961?

It looks like that band strengthened considerably over the past 30 minutes. It was weaker passing over me and delivered nothing...lol. Congrats to those east of the river.

Zilch for me here in Carlisle overnight / this morning. Just clouds. Temp 26.4. Hoping for some fun beginning tomorrow afternoon.

You need to subtract out whatever it's showing for tomorrow's event. I haven't looked at 18Z yet but 12Z gave MDT between 2 and 3". So that still leaves a foot for Thursday's storm! We appear to be smack dab in the center of the heaviest, which is encouraging.

You can say that again!

Unfortunately that was last night's 0Z Run. Here is the 12Z. It moved the heavy axis over 100 miles to the north. Congrats @Wmsptwx

Here in Carlisle at 11:00am it is snowing moderately, but with fine flakes and is no longer accumulating. During the past hour I picked up 0.2" of new snow giving me a storm total of 1.2". The temperature has risen to 33.1 which is causing snow on the board to compact. It does look very scenic out there, though.

Good morning all! Here in Carlisle at 10:00am it is snowing moderately, occasionally lightly. I have just recorded 1.0" of snow on the board. Temperature continues to slowly rise and is now 31.8 degrees. The rate is going to have to pick up for any more accumulating with the temp about to go above freezing. Loving the upcoming 2-week outlook. Incredibly wintery. So glad to see the Euro go colder for the Thursday storm. Hope that lasts.

Man, you've been the busy beaver this afternoon and evening, haven't you? As always I want to thank you both for the time you take to post those WB maps and also for your overflowing optimism. Keep it up! PS>>The 18Z GFS also showed amazing cold coming starting next weekend with a massive arctic front passing through here Saturday night. Temperatures start out in the mid 20's at midnight (sat) and fall off the cliff during the entire day Sunday with the LSV down into the positive single digits by Sunday evening, and even further down into the mid minus single digits by Monday morning. Nearly all of Ohio 12Z Monday are all -20 to -25 degrees, western PA is in the minus teens, and central/LSV are -3 to -8 degrees F. Baby, that's cold!

Man, what a run (18Z GFS) with the arctic onslaught. I'm guessing that must be the polar vortex finally dropping in on us? When I saw the LSV in a 480 thickness I knew this was serious cold. I've only witnessed a 480 thickness I think twice before in my life. Once was back in the 80s and once in the 90's. I don't think we've had that out here in the 20 years I've lived here. I'd love for one of the data guys to see when was the last time our region dropped to 480 thickness? MDT drops to -27C at 850 and we go below zero at the surface. Because of the snowpack there are a few nights that MDT drops to -11F! I certainly realize things could change concerning the polar air but that would be amazing since it immediately follows the more than 12" of snow that has just fallen. Exciting next few weeks for sure. Maybe Sunday's storm comes a little more north?

Wow!

A quick view of the 12Z GFS from a temperature perspective shows that after the arctic front passes through here Sun/Mon, we stay continuously below freezing for high temps from Monday 2/8 until Tuesday, Feb 16. That would be a pretty significant stretch of cold spending 8 days below freezing. That's long enough to get some decent ice going on the rivers and creeks. Of course the model gives us virtually no precip after the frontal passage this Sunday through to 2/17, so suppression city seems to be the rule. It also looks like it delays the arctic frontal passage by at least 12 hours until Sunday night.

Here's my midnight recap for the storm in Carlisle. At midnight it continued to snow very lightly. During the past 2 hours only 0.1" of additional snow was recorded. That brought the daily total (for Monday 2/1) to 5.7". The previous day (1/31) recorded 3.7" of snow. The 2-day storm total was 9.4". The liquid equivalent from today's snowfall of 5.7" was 0.70". This included 0.3" of snow and sleet (0.03") and 0.07" of freezing rain. I will be back in the morning to finish this report with the SLR's from each day and the 2-day average SLR. Maybe I'll get one more inch overnight to exceed December's total by 0.1". My board has been cleared and ready for anything that might fall overnight. See you all in the morning!

Looks like @MAG5035 is getting raked pretty good right now with some dark bands dropping down over him. The guy up in Wellsboro looks to be doing quite well now also.

At 10:00pm in Carlisle it continues to snow lightly. During the past hour only an additional 0.1" of snow has fallen. This brings the daily total to 5.6" and the 2-day storm total to 9.3". I'm only 1.1" away from my goal. Maybe by overnight one more good band comes through. Temp now holding at 30.6 degrees.

Here in Carlisle at 9:00pm it continues to snow lightly to occasionally moderately. During the past 2 hours only an additional 0.3" of snow has accumulated. That brings today's total to 5.5" and the 2-day storm total to 9.2". Temp continues to rise very slowly, but is again at the high of the day at 30.7 degrees. As I write this I am literally on the northwest fringe of the dry slot. I guess we'll see what happens over the next few hours. Maybe it fills back in some?

Congrats! You broke a foot (haha).

Thank you for explaining. So we go back to the previous thread right now if we're discussing anything beyond this storm?

Thanks. I would think based off of the snow map that way more than 1" of liquid would be there unless there is another storm after that one. The map that was posted went out 10 days and was the total snow over the 240 hours beginning at 7:00am this morning. Your map only goes out 7 days. Hmmm

Here in Carlisle at 7:00pm it continues to snow moderately. During the past hour another 0.4" of snow had fallen. That brings today's total to 5.2" and the 2-day storm total to 8.9". Confidence is growing that I'll receive another 1.5" to just beat out the December storm. The temp continues to very slowly rise and is now at the high of the day at 29.8 degrees.

Maybe @Blizzard of 93 can produce a snow map that only contains the weekend storm. I'm thinking it might be closer to 24". If this morning's run projected 16" more snow for this storm, then it's around 24" for the next one.