CarlislePaWx

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 949 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 PAZ036-056-063-064-070900- /O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220107T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0001.220107T0249Z-220107T0900Z/ Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 949 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Franklin, Perry, Cumberland and Adams Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS....The snow will be over before sunrise, but travel will likely still be slower than normal during the morning commute. Allow extra time in the morning for snow removal and longer than normal travel time to your destination.

ALEET ALEET ---NWS just upgrades advisories to Winter Storm Warning!!!

at 9:00pm in Carlisle, light snow was falling with a temperature of 28.9 degrees. Dew Point 27.7. Wet bulb 28.4. So not much more evaporational cooling expected. I just measured 0.7" of new snow, which is also the storm total. Everything is now white except my driveway which is turning white slowly. Looking forward to the heavy stuff coming north!

Whatever little might have been falling stopped about 20 minutes ago. Temp went back up to 32.9 while dew point dropped from 22 to 20. Wet bulb continues to drop as well, down now to 28.6. Calm wind.

Still waiting for the virga to reach the ground. I think maybe some is reaching the ground but I can't see it. Temp has been dropping, now down to 32.5 while the dew point is only up to 22. Wet bulb has actually dropped slightly from 29.3 to 29.1. What perfect conditions for it to start sticking almost immediately.

I'm in the tip of the arrow at the moment. I don't know if I've ever seen precip make an approach like this before. In any case I only have virga to report so far. Temp 34.7 with a dew point of 18. My wet bulb currently is 29.3, so evaporational cooling should fairly quickly pull my temp down to and then below freezing. I'll check back in as soon as the first flakes fly. I've got about an hour of enough daylight left to see the snow naturally (without any lights).

That 3-7" range should have a warning because the mid-point of that range is 5" which is the threshold for WSW. (I know the coverage has to be 50% or greater in any particular county to qualify.) Will be fun to see.

cheater!

My 4.4" guess is looking better and better.

Does that mean you wish you were also "South of the Border"?

Regarding the aforementioned "Pedro", I also immediately thought of South of the Border. Remember..."Pedro never sleeps..." and the revolving sheep above his head. ! And, don't forget to pick up a quart of milk at Piggly Wiggly, just down the road. I was traveling down to Florida several years before I-95 was constructed. Everyone used US 301, which did go right through SOB. I imagine business suffered quite a bit after the interstate bypassed them. I'm guessing the year was very close to 1972.

Already gave 4.4". Total qpf: 0.32"

MDT: 4.4"

I also had a sudden increase in winds between 3:00 and 4:00, though not nearly the magnitude. Highest gust was 12 mph. (My anemometer is partially sheltered as well). I was at my low of the night at 22.3 at 2:47 just as the winds began and one hour later at 3:46 I reached my high of the day at 35.2. Right now I'm locked in at 30 degrees.

Remember a little earlier with the MU post. They had a fairly large area of 3-6". That 6" wasn't being projected by anyone at that time. BTW, currently my temp is down to 26.8 degrees after a high of 36.1 (in the shade). I have about another 4 weeks of increasing sun elevation to go before my station goes into direct sun for any length of time. With each passing day my station will receive more sun. By the equinox it has at least enough sunlight during early to mid afternoon that I can trust my high temps again (until next November).

Wow. 5 to 5.5" for me. Right now CTP has me at 2 -3 inches. Don't know if I'll ever make it to a warning but I'm willing to bet the current upper end of 3" goes to 4". I must say the whole layout of the precip field just looks weird.

Cumberland ain't too shabby either.

This isn't the first time I've been one county away for an advisory. I'm not going to quibble over 2-4 20 miles south of me and 1-3 up here. I'm hoping for 2" with anything more a bonus.

You guys are slow! I told you it was a miller A 12 hours ago...lol.

You're off by 20 miles. The screw hole is directly over me. How weird. I know it will change in six hours but that is just plain trolling by GooFuss.

I was writing the below before several of you were already describing things the way I have below...so I'm just adding my two cents... Is this really a Miller B? the low starts out down in central Alabama and moves northeast to northwestern Georgia, to north central South Carolina, to just off the southern Virginia coast, and then the jump happens up to southeast of NYC. But, the jump doesn't happen until the low is practically at the coast. A "jump" is more of a low pressure well inland, coming northeast over the Appalachians heading up towards southwest PA with the jump taking place there to the coast as a new low pressure center, and then redeveloping / strengthening moving northeast from there. In our case while there appears to be a "jump", the low is already at the coast before the jump. It almost has more of a Miller A'ish look to it, but regardless, the MA appears to receive the jackpot once again.

No problem, I was just ribbing you a tad since I rarely do that stuff around here. @sauss06can clarify but I’m pretty sure he still lives in Summerdale. I’ve always thought the Fire Department he works with was in Harrisburg, but that I’m definitely not certain.

Central Cumberland? Summerdale? Last time I looked Summerdale was along the Susquehanna river. (j/k) Carlisle is the most central significant town in central Cumberland. Now that I have that settled, I can report that in the shade my high temp yesterday was 61.3 degrees F. Had my station been in the sun I would have easily been 63 and possibly 64. So I can mostly confirm your suspicion.

Yesterday afternoon as I was taking down my Christmas lights I looked down at my lawn and saw a bright yellow dandelion bloom. Ugggghhh

This map lines up pretty well with CTP's snow map (for our area) unless they've updated it.