CarlislePaWx

Haha. The "deathband" did not budge and stayed right over me for hours and only moved east very begrudgingly towards the end.

Ok...just a few minutes ago I dropped below the coldest temp of all of last winter, 12.6 F and have now hit 12.4 degrees. My dewpoint is holding at 7.6 degrees. I think nearly everyone has a chance to see single-digit lows tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be shocked if I dropped to +5. I'll bet York, THV, gets down close to zero. We'll see in 10 hours.

One of the very unique aspects of the Jan '96 storm (as you already know) was that temperatures were in the single digits leading in to the start of the storm. It was 8 degrees around 10:00am on Sunday morning when the first flakes began. That is the only snow storm of my life to experience that (single digit temps) at the beginning of a huge event. The next coldest was February 2003 which had me 11 degrees when PD II began and remained in the teens for the entire storm. It stayed in the teens the whole time in '96 as well. I'm trying to remember how cold it was going in to January 2016's storm. That was the largest accumulation of my life at 35". I don't expect to see another one of them the remainder of my life. I'm sure someone here could look up the temps for the 2016 storm. I'm thinking low 20's but not teens.

My midnight update for 1/9/22 --- my temperature spike due to winds (which were light < 5mph) peaked out just 0.3 degrees from my expectation of 37.0 with a reading of 36.7 degrees which occurred at 10:47 pm. Icicles began to melt off the shrubs and trees. But, the big news is the snow cover is now encased in a wonderful, thick glaze of ice that's not going anywhere until Wednesday at the earliest. Soon afterwards I noticed breaks in the clouds and my temperature was retreating slowly. At midnight my temp is 35.4 degrees and by dawn I'll be back below freezing.

Were you above freezing for most of the day? That's microclimate for you. The nuances of weather are always surprising. I'm now up to 36.5 and crawling my way up to 37.0 (lol). Only a half degree left for my semi-prediction / expectation.

Definitely slowing down. Might not hit 37, but at (9:54) 36.0 (+4.0 degree rise in the past 15 minutes) Air beginning to dry just a tad as RH down to 83% with a dew point of 31

I've seen it play out like this many times before. Temp rise is slowing down now >>(9:51) 35.8

Winds beginning to pick up a bit more now. Temp 34.2. 2 Minutes later (9:44) up to 34.9 >>(9:45) 35.2 >>(9:46) 35.6 >>I'm fully expecting 5 degree rise to 37. (9:48) 35.8

Ramp up has begun. Now up to 33.4. A little bit of wind beginning to stir up the air and allow the warmer air not far up to mix down. >>Edit 2 mins later...temp up to 34.0 and rising rapidly.

Well, I just checked in on Wundermap across all of PA and the good news (if you are hoping for ice/snow retention) is that nearly the entire state is below 40 degrees with one lone station in Perry County showing 41. The area of 40's that was wider across the west and west-central earlier has shrunken considerably. I think any brief warm-up will be muted, at least in duration. But also, very unlikely to rise above the upper 30's before it starts heading back to freezing after a few hours.

Abilene, has around 3" while you, sadly have 2" over the whole 15 days.

Well after sitting at 31.6 degrees for more than 4 hours I have finally reached freezing with the temp at 32.2. I'll be very interested in seeing how high the temps get as winds pick up ahead of the front later. Earlier I said I wouldn't be surprised if the temps went up 5 degrees but I wouldn't be shocked if it rose 8 degrees and hit 40 for a very brief amount of time. The 0.15" of ice covering the snow is going to greatly retard any snow melt.

Yes, I know...what's coming now pales in comparison to what the models think is coming in 2 weeks. Maybe by then we'll have a 2-foot snowbase that send us down to 5 below? (lol)

It's quite likely the forecast highs for today will occur for a brief time as the front nears and winds pick up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a rise of 5 degrees very quickly...sending us into the mid 30s for a short time.

Sub freezing still holding on by a thread. Temp is 31.6 degrees, which is the high for the day. None of the icicles are dripping yet so I know we are below 32.0 still. Looks like the warm wedge to our west is narrowing with 30s in Ohio pressing into western PA. I'm sure I will go above freezing once winds begin to stir and send the warmth above down to the surface. However, it's great knowing that the majority of my snowpack will remain intact for the upcoming arctic onslaught.

After stalling at 29.7 degrees for nearly an hour I've suddenly gone up to 30.2. Light freezing rain continue to fall. I don't think it ever got heavy here. Maybe moderate at times. Ice has been slowly accreting on all surfaces except my driveway & street. I don't have a qpf measurement because my tipping bucket rain gauge is frozen and not tipping (lol) AND I forgot to put my clear-vue gauge back outside after I brought it in to melt the snow Friday morning. I really can't imagine that the qpf is over 0.25" with the level of accretion, although it definitely looks like I have 0.1" of ice on the shrubs/trees. As I go to post this my temp has just hit 30.4. Not much longer for accrual.

This morning my temperature dropped to the coldest reading in nearly 2 years at 10.2 degrees. Even up to 4:30 it was still 19 degrees. Then the winds must have gone calm because the temp started dropping pretty rapidly and didn't bottom out until almost 8:00. During all of last winter my coldest reading was 12.6 F. I'm pretty sure most of us will see single digits upcoming this week. The snow cover definitely plays a big role in helping temps to drop. Just before 10:45 I'm back up to 23.2.

Years ago (25?) I went to my monthly North Jersey Weather Observers meeting. The topic for the speaker that evening was the unbelievable storm of November 1950. In addition to what's been mentioned already about Pennsylvania, during the height of the storm Newark, NJ airport reported sustained winds of hurricane force for 12 consecutive hours!! I know, it sounds nuts and totally unimaginable. Another stat from that storm is the severity of the cold that was on the west side of the storm and how deep the trough was to have fueled such a beast. Tallahassee (and other north Florida locations) reported sub-zero low temperatures of around -4F. I don't know what the central pressure was but I have to believe this storm was on par with the superstorm of March 1993, or was even more intense than that storm. The weather can be so incredibly amazing while also being horrifically devastating at the same time.

Good morning to all snow weenies out there! Judging by posts this was really a solid event. I just took my post-midnight measurement and got 2.0". That brings the storm total to 5.5". the 2.0" melted down to 0.15" which was 13:1 which was the same as my pre-midnight measurement. My melted storm total was 0.42" which also produced very close to 13:1. Like others have mentioned, there appears to be less on walkways and my cul-de-sac street. So just to recap: Snowfall since midnight = 2.0" with liquid of 0.15" Snowfall yesterday = 3.5" with liquid of 0.27" Snowfall storm total = 5.5" with liquid of 0.42" and a storm ratio of 13:1. It it currently 24.1 degrees and hasn't budged during the last hour. My overnight low was 23.0 degrees. Great storm! Now we move on to the ice storm on Sunday. I live in an area that is usually the last to break above freezing. The warmth comes in from the west or south or combination of the two. Talk to you later...have a restful day. I know I will since I'm retired...lol.

Well, it's not too hard to figure out who is likely going to win the contest. You! but I'll be a close second. We'll see. @canderson is likely going to bust low. He really should try to be more optimistic.

Hey guys, here's my midnight ob and daily ob for 1/6/22: At 12:00am the temperature in Carlisle was 27.1 degrees with a dew point of 26.2. It continued to snow heavily during the past hour but at a slightly slower rate. During the past hour I measured an additional 1.0" of snow bringing the storm total to 3.5". I just melted down that snow and came up with 0.27" of liquid which produced a liquid equivalent ratio of 13 : 1. I'll be anxious to see what the post midnight snow ratio turns out to be since that will be roughly the second half of the storm, which one would think would have to be a drier snow. We'll see. Based on current radar it would seem a lock to get at least another 1.5" before it ends which would bring the storm total to 5.0" which would verify the winter storm warning. I think based on the look of the bands to the west which appear to be pivoting eastward I'll likely see one or two more really heavy bands. So I'll say that I expect to end up with between 5.5 and 6.5 inches by morning. I'm off to bed for the night so I'll do all my final measuring in the morning, probably between 8 and 8:30. I forgot to mention that I also cleared my snowboard for the new day of data. Good night for now and enjoy the next few hours for those who stay up!

At 11:00pm in Carlisle, the temperature is down to 27.7 degrees with a dew point of 26.8. It is currently snowing heavily, and has been heavy for nearly the entire past hour. In fact, I just doubled my storm total after receiving an additional 1.3" in the past hour and now have a storm total of 2.5". The heavy snow looks great. It's fluffy and accumulating quickly. We'll see how the day ends up at the midnight ob.

Here's my 10:00pm ob Current temperature is 28.2 degrees with a dew point of 27.3 degrees. It is currently snowing moderately and has been for most of the past hour. I have not yet seen heavy snow. Snowfall accumulation in the last hour has been 0.5" giving me a storm total of 1.2". Waiting for the heavy stuff to arrive.

That "deathband" that's been hanging out down in Adams county is ever-so-slowly trying to move north towards me. @Cashtown_Coop can you please give it a nudge north? Thanks in advance.

Didn't this very same scenario just play out down in DC? They had advisory out which didn't upgrade to warning until just hours before the start. Amazing.