CarlislePaWx

About to make a liar out of myself. Temp down now to 18.1. Dew point 15, wet bulb 17.2. Getting whiter and whiter by the minute.

Pavers/mulch almost solid white out back with side walks and street white out front. Steady snow with fine flakes because the temperature is in the teens. I've dropped to 18.7 degrees. Very unlikely I'll drop below 18.0 but we'll see. This is the first time in quite a few years since I've seen it snow with temps in the teens. >> forgot to add that the dew point has risen to 14 degrees with the wet bulb hanging out around 17.4.

Ok...officially started here a few minutes ago. Rapidly progressing to steady light. Pavers out back already showing stickage. Temp still 19.0, dp 12.

At 3:33 it remains overcast. No sign of the white stuff yet. Temp steady at 19.0 degrees with the high so far at 19.2. Dew point is 12 degrees. Wet bulb is 17 so with a 2-degree difference between wet bulb and 2m I'm not expecting more than a 1-degree drop once we're under way.

Also, my current wet bulb is 15. Temp now 17.6. That combination is not going to produce much cooling when precip begins despite the dew point hovering around 6 above.

17.1 / 6 with solid overcast and virtually no wind.

My point-n-click looks better than last night. They upped me from 2-4" to 3-6". Best news is that they only give me plain rain for one hour between 3-4am with an expected max temp of 37. That's pretty encouraging.

Good morning all. After reviewing the most recent 60 posts I can see that the majority of the models are still showing 5-6" of the snow thump. One thing I found interesting in the Euro surface maps was that it does not appear that any plain rain ever makes it to me. It wasn't showing much of any freezing rain. I don't know about sleet and if the sleet is part of the total snow accumulations. In any case, my low this morning was +4.3 degrees, by far the coldest temperature I've seen in I think 3 years. Temp is now up to 12.7 with a dew point of +1.4. Boy that air is dry.

If you believe the 0Z GFS depiction, here are the maps for accumulated freezing rain, and then ice accretion from the ZR...

After reviewing again it is weird in that east of the Susq 10:1 gives higher amounts while west of the Susq it's Kuchera that gives higher amounts.

Try using 10-1 and not Kuchera. For this storm 10-1 has shown slightly higher amounts versus Kuch.

I can't believe how consistent many of the models have been for me / Cumberland County. Very close to the 6" mark (in the middle of the county) with a little less to the east and a little more to the west. All it will take is 3 hours of 2"/hr snow for me to hit my target! Meanwhile I bottomed out here about 30 minutes ago at 10.9 degrees and for the moment it has reversed and I'm up to 11.7. Really great radiational cooling nights are always like this. The temps go down a few degrees, then stop, then go up a little bit, then stop, then start dropping again to a lower reading. The sky looked great tonight with the calm and crisp conditions along with almost a full moon directly up over my head.

My high today was back at midnight at 24.3 degrees. My high this afternoon was 22.3 degrees. Low this morning 14.5. Temp right now 16.0, dew point +1.8 F. If we have to go through all the transitions from snow to rain, I really hope to first get at least 4" of snow, which really should be doable with a rate of 1.5"/hr for 3 hours. Follow that with as much sleet as possible (several inches), followed by 0.1" freezing rain, followed by plain rain, light, and less than 0.1" and a temp no higher than 36. That will provide incredible pack retention which should easily hang around until the next storm? next Friday (lol).

I'm pretty sure that when the NWS totally restructured its zones to the county level (more than 15 years ago), if there was enough of a climatological difference in one portion of a county to the other, then that county was split up by name...ie northern/southern, coastal/inland, northwest/southeast, etc. They will only issue differing forecasts within a county if it exists as a "split county". There apparently is not enough difference in Dauphin to warrant a split...thus it's a "whole" county.

FYI>>Take a look over to the far right at 3'oclock and notice the pressure of that low out in the ocean. 969 millibars is about as deep as the superstorm ever got. I don't know if its presence downstream is having any effect at all on our setup, but it certainly is an indication of what the atmosphere wants to do with lows, which appears to be bomb them!

I do have to chuckle over DT's map. The 11-16" line goes directly over me PLUS the purple means heavy ice accretion. Are those two things both happening?? I'm asking simply based upon his forecast depiction. Also, he'll do his final call tomorrow night which will probably bring major changes. I just can't see him not changing the accumulation distributions. But, what do I know? I only went to his wedding.

How about that 6-10” forecast from ABC27 last night???

Yes, yes, & No. They took away sub 20 temps quite a few years ago. I'm pretty sure you need sustained winds >20mph with snowfall rates >1"/hr combo for 3 continuous hours for NWS blizzard warning.

I thought the afternoon CTP disco was very good. It seemed like at least at present they were saying that the first half of the storm should be all snow everywhere. That's about as far as their "likely" feelings went.

One thing my weather friends have told me is you need the 700 low to pass south of you for precip to be good and warming aloft to be mitigated. This depiction shows the low south of the m/d line, which is at least one positive (for those of us in lsv).

You're comparing 0z with 6z

I like the parallels to March 1994. Not because I remember that storm specifically but because I had 70" of snow that winter (living in north jersey) along with a ton of ice, especially in January. Of course, January 1994 is quite noteworthy for us in the LSV as in 8 days we will observe the 28th anniversary of the coldest temperature ever recorded in Harrisburg (at least since 1888) with a low temperature of 22 below zero. I'm guessing that out this way there were some readings even colder.

What's weird is that it suddenly slows down when it reaches us, then goes directly over us, then decides to move northeast rapidly. Still looks like a good thump with only a brief changeover, then ending as snow. 983 mb when it passes overhead. That's pretty close to 29.00" which would make it one of the lowest pressures we've seen around here in quite some time.

Well, I might not have had my single-digit low this morning that I thought was a given last night...but...I only within the past five minutes have reached freezing! It's 32.0 degrees for my high of the day so far. That's a departure of around 8 degrees from the forecast high of 40. Nothing is melting yet. That's the biggest surprise. I still have a solid 2" remaining in my back yard, and there is even still a tiny glaze left on some trees that do not get any direct sun in January.

I'm only 23 still after an overnight low of 11.5 degrees...so no single digits for me this go 'round. But, still colder by one degree than my coldest of all last winter. I don't mind it warming up a bit especially if the old snow will be replaced with a very deep (?) new layer later Sunday. I'd like to throw my 2 cents in to @Itstrainingtime's question (and it's still along the lines of the other comments). The more powerful the low the more likely the accompanying cold front has occluded, which means the colder portion of the low can be much closer to the low's center where the eastern flank becomes overwhelmed with the cold air from the western side.