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Everything posted by CarlislePaWx
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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Hey hey...I had given up on even checking for anything since the most recent model updates gave me primarily 0". Turns out it is snowing at least lightly and most likely was moderate for a time because I now have a whopping 0.3" of new snow on the board. It has coated everything except for my driveway (so far). Temp has been dropping very slowly and is now down to 27.5 degrees. This new snow plus the 0.1" I had early this morning brings my daily total thus far to 0.4". I hope a little more can fall so everything stays white even with the sun if the high temp tomorrow is only 20 degrees with wind. Glad to see most of us are seeing/reporting coatings. We'll take what we can get, right? -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thanks. I actually thought/remembered that after the post. I have heard that word used before, and will use it myself in the future. BTW, it continues to snow lightly, though with flake size increasing just a tiny bit. Temp down to 32.4 so I expect my snowboard to begin turning white in the next hour, assuming the snow continues...lol. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
At 2:50pm I am happy to report that the white drizzle has become heavy enough to cross over into light snow. The temp has risen back up to 34.0, so no accumulations yet. Rest assured, I'll be back later to update everyone when my board officially records 0.1". -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
After peaking about 90 minutes ago at 36.0 degrees, the temp has slowly been dropping back, now at 33.6. During this entire time white drizzle has been falling with various intensities. I've decided to give ratings to these white drizzle intensities using light, moderate, and heavy. Even heavy would take several hours to accumulate 0.1" with a temp no higher than 32. So, with that having been said it is currently white drizzling lightly. Lightly probably makes up 60% of all the snow that has fallen so far today with about 20% moderate and 20% heavy. As I gaze upon my snowboard, alas, it is bare. I am hoping to at least reach 0.3" in order to call this a victory. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
What the NAM giveth (6z)... it also can taketh away (12z)... for example, 6z gave NYC 32.6" and suddenly 6 hours later 12z "only" gives them 12.8" Yikes! I'm kind of glad I'm not having to go through the emotional roller coaster with this one. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
One other tidbit... Today is the sixth day this month with measurable snow. Last year I only had 4 days in January. Of the 4 days last year only 1 day recorded > 0.2"! So far this month including today I have had exactly 10.0". Last year I had 4.1" in January. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
PS>>>Got enough of a dusting to call it 0.1" officially...lol. The sun is almost about to break through. Temp 28.6 -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It is so rare for Long Island to get 3 feet for quite a large swath of central. Looks like the 24" line is really close to Queens / western Nassau. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
What do you mean by "unburied"? Don't you mean "buried"? I found a small area with even more than 39"...if you look at the lighter colored oval immediately to the right of the "r" in Worcester, that oval is 41". -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thanks, @MAG5035. The run was only up to around 270 when I went to post just that one storm. I went back in to see the rest and it certainly does look nice. Here are several snow maps for the entire 0Z run using Kuchera: First the national map: Next, the northeast regional: And finally, our state: It looks like roughly 80% of PA has over 24" for the 384 hours. A few other notables were the following states which had almost 100% coverage of 24"+. Those states were West Virginia, New York, Vermont, Maine and New Hampshire. Finally, go look down at Alabama which has roughly 50% coverage of 6"+, and Mississippi which has about 20-25% coverage of 3"+. Pretty amazing. Of course I know much of this will change in just a few hours. But, it at least takes a bit of the sting out of our coastal calamity, and also shows that a more permanent pattern of warmth in the East may very well be still more than 2 weeks away. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Hey @Blizzard of 93! Look what we have to look forward to after our rain storm next week! This is Day 9-10 where it appears there is a battle going on between the arctic trying to come back in while fighting off the southeast ridge... -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Well, I'm going with the model that gave me, cash, and bubbler the winning prize of 0.2" for the entire event. I really can't get over the Euro hanging on while all others have abandoned ship...lol...get that? Meanwhile, I will enjoy the possibility of coming close to or maybe even exceeding my lowest temperature of this season tonight. Coldest minimum so far was -0.6 degrees back over the weekend. Currently I'm at 8.6 degrees and dropping. This is the earliest in the night I've reached single digits. So, my anticipation for morning is close to zero again or perhaps -1 or even -2. My amazing ice-encrusted 11-day old snowpack is still going strong at 2". I cannot see any grass yet (in my back yard, which faces north.) My small front yard only has a few spots left with more than a trace there. Fortunately, I have a large picture window facing out back which provides me with ample opportunities to be reminded that it is still winter, and we are very close to our climatological bottom for daily average temps. . -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
That's crazy. You're in the same snow band that I've been in for over 20 minutes and yet I have only virga. It must be the river effect. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Pretty sure MAG showed us a snow map yesterday for this next clipper and it showed the precip only barely making it to me and then nothing east of there unless you were mid sv or north. Laurels were the winner again with 3-4". It's funny, I feel like I'm reliving yesterday as the overcast moved in here pretty quickly after lunchtime and now it's just a dark gray, looking like snow. I don't think lanco sees anything more than flurries to a dusting at best. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
My expectations were rather low on this one. The majority of the model runs leading up to this event pretty much kept me under 1". I ended up with 0.3" which was just enough to cover the sidewalks and my cul-de-sac street. The one thing i noticed while outside just now and near the one street light on my street was the incredible crystalline nature of the snow. It looked like a sea of diamonds sending up shimmering reflections of light. The other interesting thing was because the past several mornings have been near or below 10 degrees, the snow immediately began to stick and accumulate on those surfaces even though the temp was close to 34 leading into the clipper. Finally, it's now been 7 continuous days with snow cover, longest stretch of the winter and very likely to last throughout most of this upcoming week. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Flurries! Finally! Temp 32.7. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I think it's getting close to starting. Solid echoes are finally overhead. I can judge by temperatures that it is definitely snowing out in Newburg, which is about 25 miles west of me. Looks like there's pretty good intensity as well. Fingers crossed. Temp 32.9, dew point 21, wet bulb 29. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Me too! It's an hour later and still nothing. It's getting dark now so I can't enjoy it as much. (Not complaining. I still have a solid 2.5" icy base from last week). -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Unreal on radar...snowing to my west, snowing to my east, and a bupkis (hi @Festus) sandwich here. Temp 34.0 dew point 20, wet bulb 29. I'm pretty sure there is enough cooling potential present to get back down below freezing IF the snow ever starts. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Well my prediction for my low overnight came true. I broke into the negative with a -0.6 degrees, which rounds to -1.0 officially. Solid snowpack definitely helped, even though it's only 2-3". It got the sleet/zr crust on top preserving it. My dog can walk on top of it without falling through. He only weighs 14 pounds. Temp has rebounded all the way up to 19 degrees on its way to close to 25 in a few hours. So, no snowmelt today. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Temp has been plummeting during the past hour, down 4 degrees to my low of the day, 9.3 degrees. I expect to be close to 8.5 before the day ends in 15 minutes. NWS forecast low for tonight is 5. Last night it was 2. I think I've got a shot close to zero. We'll see how close I come in the morning. Coldest minimum so far this season was 4.5 degrees earlier in the week. I just love having a nice snow cover going into a clear, calm night. Radiational cooling at its most efficient. Down to 9.1 as I post this. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Wow, yeah. That would shut just about everything down for a few days I would imagine, given the lack of snow removal equipment, etc. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I wonder if Charleston, SC has ever experienced a snowstorm of 24"+ in its record keeping history? -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Looks like at 3:00 I am finally going to drop below 32.0 (I'm teetering between 32.0 and 31.8) and stay below there the rest of the day. I didn't warm up that much...only to 34. A check of some of the models that output surface temps shows that every one of them has busted low by several degrees. The HRRR seems to be way high on tomorrow night's lows, only dropping the MDT area, including me, to a low of +8F. Fortunately, I've got a nice, solid snow pack that still is close to 3" deep. That should help tremendously with radiational cooling tomorrow night. NWS has me at +2 for the low so I definitely have a shot at zero or a little below. Looks like that Euro chart from MAG shows me at around -3 or so. -
Central PA - Winter 2021/2022
CarlislePaWx replied to Bubbler86's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Morning all. First look around this morning and I see all trees with a very light coating of white. Same for sidewalks but not the street. Last night around 9pm I got on here and said I had dropped to 29.1 degrees and was feeling pretty good about accumulation chances. Well that drop turned out to be a big tease as the temp started going back up again and by midnight I was up to 31.6. This morning I see that at some point during the night I shot all the way up to 36 like many of you also did. I haven't measured the rain gauge yet but my automated gauge is reading 0.10". That would be mostly rain before the changeover. I'm going to record 0.3" of new snow based on the board and trees. Fortunately I still have a solid base of between 2.5 to 3.0" which should be enough to enhance any radiational cooling we see here over the next few night. I'm hoping to see zero Saturday morning. >>Forgot to mention that clearing skies are progressing southward from the north. The sun is about to come out within the next 10 minutes. My temp is back down to 31.6. Yesterday the models showed temps continuing to drop down through the 20's with mid 20's by sundown. Let's see.