CarlislePaWx

At 9:00pm here in Carlisle I have snow flurries. The temp is holding at 27.7 degrees. Since my last observation back around 4:00pm I have picked up an additional 0.4" of new snow giving me a storm total (thus far??) of 0.6". The sidewalks did cave back around 6:00, however the street and my driveway did not. They remain just wet. I'll take my final measurement around 11:45pm and check in with the melted amount of liquid. Ho-hum.

Here in Carlisle, just before 4:00pm it is snowing lightly and very steadily. Intensity hasn't budged over the past hour and the flakes remain rather fine. Current temp is down to 28.4 degrees with a dew point of 26. Probably not much more room left to drop unless rates really pick up. On my board I just measured 0.2" of new snow for a storm total of 0.2". Waiting to see what happens during the next hour and if any of the heavy stuff south of me in Adams/Franklin makes its way up here.

The snow began here in Carlisle right around 2:00pm. The temp at that time was 31.8. Rates increased to a steady light snow capable of accumulating but only very slowly. Now at 2:40 my temp has dropped to 29.1 degrees. With a dew point of 24 there's still a little room for a further drop to between 27 and 28 especially after sunset. Mulch/grass is dusted in white, but that's about it so far. Nice to see snow falling instead of sleet!

I think AllWeather's name is Matt.

Here's my wrap up for the storm... I recorded 0.6" of sleet (which was less than Thursday). That 0.6" of sleet melted down to 0.36" giving an SLR of 6:1. It very likely was not that high because of an unknown level of freezing rain which occurred throughout most of the event to varying degrees. I recorded 0.01" more of freezing rain after the sleet ended around 10pm which gave me a melted storm total of 0.37". Enough freezing rain fell on top of the sleet to create a pretty hard glaze. It was hard enough that I could walk on it and not sink into the sleet. I think it is safe to say that the combo of sleet and freezing rain glaze will help keep a fair amount of this mixture around until the start of the Tuesday storm, which I believe is now going to be dubbed "storm #1". Finally, the temperature has been rising very slowly for the past several hours and is now up to 31.3 degrees at 1:43am. Double finally...it certainly is encouraging to see improvement across the board for storm #1. A rough average of all the posted models puts me between 3" and 3.5". That sure beats 1" from last night.

My temp continues to rise after bottoming out at 27.7 one and a half hours ago, it is now up to 28.8. The sleet intensity has been all over the place between very light and briefly heavy. I'll go measure my board at the top of the hour (9:00pm) and report back.

I hear some pinging returning. Temp 28.2 @Blizzard of 93You were right! It suddenly looks pretty solid to the west. Then I still have a shot at exceeding Thursday's 1.0".

Include me in your lull group...lol. It went from very heavy to nothing in just a few minutes. Looking at radar it looks like I am on the very southern tip of the east-west line that it is moving in. Looks like I might catch a bit more in about 30 minutes for a little bit. But then, that might be it? I definitely do not have as much as Thursday morning (yet). Looking like between 0.5" and 0.7". I will melt it down later before midnight and see what the total liquid comes out with. Temperature dropped to 27.7 and now is 27.9. Dew point is 25 and there is a more steady breeze now out of the southeast at 5-10 mph.

Paved street now completely white. It's pouring sleet. Temp down to 29.1.

Precip started here about 15 minutes ago as a mix of sleet and freezing rain. The sound of pinging, however, means it's becoming more sleet and less freezing rain. Temp is down to 29.7. Dew point is up to 23.9. Pingers are continuing to increase.

18Z 12k now dishing out 0.07" for total qpf from storm #1 in my area. Ewww Meanwhile, here in Carlisle at 4:00pm it is overcast with a light southeasterly breeze. My temp has dropped to 31.5 degrees after hitting a high of 33.3 a few hours ago. My dew point, which was 18 a few hours ago has risen to 21.6. My wet bulb was 26.6 earlier and has risen now to 28.0 degrees. My low this morning was 21.6. I'm trying to decide whether I should proactively put down ice melt or not. It's no big deal to do that. But, I don't want to waste it if I don't have to.

Hmmm...start time for me around 4:30 this afternoon and ending around 11:30pm? That's 7 hours. Actually, Thursday's storm did most of its "damage" in around 6 hours. I hope CTP is right about that jet nose reaching up to 22 which puts Cumberland County in the "possible" zone for over performance. We'll see.

Well guys...it's rather obvious by there being zero posts when the GFS is out past 192 hours. I hope the second set of 192 hours comes back to life. I"ll save you all the trouble of looking (this is on referring to the 0Z GFS)...MDT receives 1" during the entire first 192 hours. For tomorrow it gives MDT a total of 0.25" qpf for the whole storm. What an incredible reversal of emotions between last night and tonight. Bipolar describes it best.

I'm up to 34.0 and there has been very little melting of the sleet. The small icicles on the tree branches are almost gone. I need the temp to go up so I don't have to shovel my sidewalk...lol. Actually, it's a good time to try out the 35 pounds of ice melt I bought last week. Extremely environmentally friendly. Can't harm pets. You can apply it directly on grass and no harm to vegetation. Hey, I'm slowly talking myself into getting out the melt...haha.

Woke up earlier and saw everything on or near the ground was white. It was all sleet. Some time before 7:00 light freezing rain mixed in and by 8:00 the temp had risen to 32.2 degrees. So, that's the end of anything frozen or freezing. From what I can tell at least a 1/2" of sleet had fallen and then a light glaze of freezing rain on top. It's raining moderately here now at 9:14am with the temp holding at 32.2 degrees. Since the precip had changed to all liquid I decided to melt down my sleet (with a little freezing rain thrown in). Total liquid was 0.33". Using 3:1 ratio the total amount of sleet was probably closer to one inch. With the level of whiteness all around it seems there must have been more than 1/2" of sleet. I missed out on any convection overnight. It was quiet the whole night.

My latest NWS forecast as of 11:40pm...(by the way, they quietly extended the WWA an additional 2 hours, now running until noon)... Tonight Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 4am, then sleet between 4am and 5am, then snow and sleet after 5am. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 27. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Thursday Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 2pm, then a slight chance of rain between 2pm and 3pm. Some thunder is also possible. High near 44. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thunder sleet anyone?

At 11:30 my temp has gone absolutely nowhere since 7pm. It's 32.0 degrees. Has gone back and forth between 31.8 and 32.2, but mostly 32.0. My dewpoint is 19.6 degrees with a relative humidity of 60%. My wet bulb reading is currently 27.7 degrees which also has not changed either. With these temps it will be easy to drop quickly to 30 degrees and then likely 29 degrees when the heavy precip comes in. The anticipation continues...

High today 35.6. Temp has dropped back to 34.3 with a dew point of 17.8. Overcast has varied with a bit of sun getting through, but generally no sun for most of today. I think the key to how far temps can drop after the precip gets going is the wet bulb. Mine is currently 28.6. That gives wiggle room to get below freezing by the time precip begins. My PNC from NWS this morning had for the overnight..."sleet, possibly heavy at times...". That's something you don't see often.

12k gives me almost 4" while 3k gives about 2". I'll split the difference and go with 3", followed by a heavy sleet storm that maybe ends as a little freezing rain. I don't think I've ever seen intense purple over me on Pivotal before. The GFS from 12z this morning also had heavy sleet around 4am Thu. Oh how the anticipation is building...lol.

The forecast high for me earlier today was becoming sunny with a high of 53. Instead, the overcast held on until after 2pm. That limited sunshine was only able to push temps up to my high of 44 degrees. The projected low temp for me tonight is 40 degrees. My current temperature is 30.6 degrees. Looks like CTP needs revisions.

Ice Storm Watch??? Breaks in OVC with blue patches beginning to appear. Sun not out quite yet but soon. Temp has crawled above freezing to 33.1 after a low overnight of 22.6 F. There must have been a period of cleared skies to allow that cold of a low with a few hours of radiation. Already a tiny bit of crazy. Also, I have determined that the majority of my precip last night was not freezing rain, but rather sleet. There had to be some freezing rain because the sleet is stuck together. I think I'm going to record 0.2" of sleet/snow for yesterday. I'll have the melt down shortly.

I've only within the past 15 minutes caught up reading all of this afternoon's post. I had no idea people were getting snow/sleet. I never saw anything falling through sunset. I guess it must have started right after that. Actually, right here I have a solid coating of ice all over my car, and it's lumpy ice. That implies that sleet was falling with the freezing rain. Upon further inspection I can see the coating all over my driveway. There might have been a small bit of snow but it really had to be primarily freezing rain mixed with sleet. Temperature a few hours ago was in the upper 20's, and has risen to the high of the day at 31.3, but now has dropped back slightly to 30.9. I can certainly understand all the accidents. Temps were in the mid teens this morning throughout the region. I don't think there was freezing rain potential mentioned in this morning's forecast, was there? Instant black ice with virtually no warning. As bad as running head on into a snow squall.

Wow...what a change from DT's 2nd half of winter video from 1/30. Although, he did imply that beginning around Feb 20th and until around March 20th there was a good chance that winter would return in force. So, it's just sped up 7-10 days sooner.

After a low of 16.3 degrees the temperature has very slowly recovered to 24.6. Dew point has been hanging out around 10 degrees all day yesterday through the present. My earlier filtered sunshine has progressed to a solid overcast. Looks like exciting times are on their way back during the entire month. I don't think MAG was talking about a snow to freezing rain scenario for the upcoming Wed/Thu system. As depicted, 2-3" of snow followed by a light coating of ice is another great way to retain the pack.

Here in Carlisle, I had 0.27" of rainfall yesterday, plus a straggler 0.01" overnight. For the month of January I recorded a liquid total of 0.80", probably the driest January in many years...possibly ever (for me). January of 1977 is the only other exceptionally dry month I can remember. The only rainfall for the entire month occurred on the first, and then the 31st. All other precip was snow. Except for shovel patches here and there all other snowfall has melted and is gone I recorded approximately 10 consecutive days with solid snow cover, with a few additional days with partial cover.