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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Doughnuts in the parking lot! I really miss that. I have not seen a good snow since before the Pandemic.
  2. nrgjeff
    Yes the MJO would favor another cold shot. CFS dives it down the Plains and it fails to get east. Honestly that's pretty believable. As for next week, y'all knew I was going to rattle the severe sabre.. Can we get some severe weather?
  3. nrgjeff
    It'll probably cut. I should have known a Met posting jinxes it every time! In more serious topics @Daniel Boone I'm sorry for your loss, especially wife and immediate family. As for weather, we probably need to get some work done before the pattern flips warm mid-Dec. I like chances north of I-40 for two or three little events. I have no idea about the big pattern changer. Still second week, so I guess there is no reason to celebrate or lament model runs. Manic Panic Meter can be engaged in about a week, ha!
  4. nrgjeff
    Happy Thanksgiving! Models have a Miller A the second Thursday of December, so day 14-15. I'm normally not interested in something beyond Day 7. However a big system would fit the conceptual model ending the cold weather pattern. Get a big snow; then, turn mild. Oh yeah thunder the following week. Can I get snow and severe in December? For now, everyone have a blessed Thanksgiving. We have sports, food and family teed up!
  5. nrgjeff
    Yeah that AIFS has sniffed out trouble before and been right. That could be the final core dump before the said January thaw starts in mid-December. This could have December 2005 vibes with the cold start and then torch. I was in KCMO in 2005 and we got a great snow the middle of December. Unfortunately I see nothing like that in the cards for southeast Tenn. Never know I-40 north. Otherwise a waste of a pattern on cold and dry is a Southeast tradition right up there with the Iron Bowl.
  6. nrgjeff
    View outside the window can explain a lot. Daniel has snow. I see blue sky. Both were forecast. Though my head knows, my heart remains really bearish for the entire winter. Thanksgiving we could have severe weather! I suppose that means snow the following week? Just not IMBY. It's also possible we're both right. North of I-40 could benefit from cold intrusions. South of I-40 we'll look forward to severe weather all winter. My more serious post this morning is in the December thread. Still bearish, but maybe not wall-to-wall torch. I believe the SER is the primary winter pattern. Right now we're going into the secondary pattern. Cold, with intermittent warm severe wx.
  7. nrgjeff
    Four typhoons in three weeks raked the Philippines and then dissipated in the vicinity of China. All that energy is maintained - somewhere. My going thinking is that this time of year that's not a ridge over China. Instead it amped up the East Asia pattern. Trough is in China under Siberia ridge. Reflection downstream is the same for the US and Canada. It's probably temporary. I remain quite mild for the winter. Caution is that La Nina seems to have stalled or even reversed. La Nina failures would not surprise me with the warmer background state. Still, reverting to a stubborn SER is my prognosis.
  8. nrgjeff
    Now the 12Z Euro Op. has an I-40 snow slider around December 3. Of course nothing in my neck of the woods. So we get a couple very cold weeks in December. Then torch bal-winter. Like 2005-2006 warm fall, cold December, January thaw starts around Christmas. For a less pessimistic experience from me, we could get a winter mid-range forecast thread going. Unless this is it? Then I'll try not to post torch thoughts past Day 15. Yeah I'm still not over the January snow. Six inches within 15 miles. Blanked IMBY.
  9. nrgjeff
    AI versions tend to favor the colder GFS over the ECMWF. If the EC ends up winning, we can look forward to a forced line of severe thunderstorms - with zero separation of cells. Meh.
  10. nrgjeff
    Yeah the mornings are ludicrous. GFS is a little cooler than the EPS. Either way we should get the nights and mornings under control even if temps remain AN.
  11. nrgjeff
    I see nothing to be optimistic about in the mid-range or long-range. Getting dry again. Warm all winter.
  12. nrgjeff
    Yeah the primary pattern is super warm. Secondary pattern will be very subdued this year, fewer weeks and weaker anomamies. I expect 3-4 cool weeks overall, perhaps over just a couple periods. Otherwise the SER wants to lock in hard. Mid-South might get one or two winter wx events. North of I-40 and along I-81 could get things on northwest flow. I truly expect to be blanked in southeast Tenn.
  13. nrgjeff
    Caught some flooding and desert mudslides in Israel on X. I follow one account that is 100% weather. How they managed to not comment on the war is amazing. I guess, never stop chasing? Great weather stuff straight from Israel!
  14. nrgjeff
    La Nina and boiling everywhere else. I have forever SER with only 1-2 weeks of cooler weather twice this winter. Wake me up for severe. SST chart
  15. nrgjeff
    Re Shawn's post. These mountains are interesting every time. We really didn't have the mountain wave set-up, no inversion. Perhaps that means the mountains blocked like a good offensive line until the wind shifted. I had some 30 mph gusts of wind with the 8:30 Eastern band that went through Chatty; trees blew, carwash on the windows. Only lasted a few minutes - regrettable since I was busy. Wind has returned now but no rain, just mostly cloudy. We get that all the time in winter. Still the novelty of Helene being a TS in Tennessee is something else. It happens but it's rare. All that said our thoughts are with people facing much worse situations from the Mountains to the Coast, wind to flooding. I figure the Helene name will be retired.
  16. nrgjeff
    From Nashville: Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows the center of Helene is north of Knoxville, with very low pressure readings across Middle Tennessee including 989mb at Nashville and 987.8mb at Livingston. Although not records and just outside the top 10, these are still unusually low pressure readings for our area. Here's a list of the Top 10 lowest pressure readings at Nashville: https://www.weather.gov/ohx/pressure_BNA Top 10 Lowest & Highest Pressure Readings at Nashville (weather.gov)
  17. nrgjeff
    The link does not work. Here is copy and paste. TS hasn't been that close to me in several years. I also added a capture from SPC surface analysis.
  18. nrgjeff
    I think we had 20-25 mph about 30 minutes ago with a heavier cell. It has moved on and the wind died down in Chatty. Kind of hoping the wind picks up again, but that might have been it. I was busy and didn't record anything. While 25 mph is meh, I would like to document TS Helene. Rare to get anything greater than a TD in Tenn. We'll see maybe background wind midday.
  19. nrgjeff
    Yes one reason they can even do hurricane recon is that the majority of the kinetic energy is horizontal. Yeah 140 mph in this case! Of course they get both vertical and horizontal turbulence. Usually even the eye wall does not have the vertical velocity of say a raging Plains supercell. Hot towers do though. And they are going to get roughed up by horizonal wind anyway. Add the vertical bumps and it's too much even for those hunters. Getting brief wind gusts to 25 mph at my house. Mostly just vertical moderate rain. Ben raining all night. Back to something @Carvers Gap wrote about the wind above the trees, I fully expected that last night but not much in Chatty. Usually at night for me, but yeah it's a thing with fall and winter systems, and then the LLJ spring systems.
  20. nrgjeff
    Well now my friends, this is very unusual. Mr. Teasdale from the original Red Dawn. High wind warning in Vols orange. TS warning in Alabama more than Georgia color. Does that mean anything for Saturday? Then there are models with a narrow swath of 50-60 mph winds between Chatty and Knox. Is that the PNG above that does not open? I'll believe it when I see it.. But for work, I have adjusted the Def Con accordingly. Good night to read A Wrinkle in Time. On a dark and stormy night.. Book specifically says it's a tropical system. It's ON!!
  21. nrgjeff
    I figure the rainy falls were amplified and unsettled patterns, vs dry northwest flow or ridge. Helene is just one event and from the tropics. I'd kind of like to see mid-latitude drivers. For now I have warm La Nina. Secondary cold push pattern might benefit the Mid South more than the Eastern Valley. I'm mentally prepared to get blanked again. I mean Heather last year, six inches in Soddy Daisy and nada East Brainerd. My level of jaded remains off the charts!
  22. nrgjeff
    Nice @Holston_River_Rambler looks like an impressive trip! Bonus Aurora in the Southwest, ha. Lots of stars at night. You drove the Million Dollar Highway? No guard rails it's white knuckles.
  23. nrgjeff
    Reasons why I have not been on much recently.. They got the hole over East Brainerd, east of downtown Chattanooga. The totally whacked thing is that it's probably right!
  24. nrgjeff
    After reasonable dewpoints, Debby finally dragged in the soup for Chattanooga today. Hopefully the last of the truly nutty dews. Temps and humidity will ebb and flow, more to the hot side than hot through August. I just see a hint of the light at the end of the tunnel. Next week will depend on where that boundary and scattered t-storms develop. Then the central US ridge gets more nibbles on both edges, which would help us esp. East Valley. Mid-South may still be closer to mid summer for a couple weeks. I have been out for a while. No trouble just lots at work and a last family trip end of summer break. Back to it now. Hope all are doing well here!
  25. nrgjeff
    Omaha was hawt Monday night! Of course Tennessee won in the Vols way. Let them almost come back and give fans heart failure. Likely watered my lawn for the last time of the season too. We have a chance of rain on Wednesday. Then per usual tough love intensifies into July. Might water it one more time, but frequency drops from every other night to every 3-4 nights (longer though). If this crap continues after July 4 it's a lost cause. Declare independence from watering. It'll come back in Sept. Some of the long-range models and weeklies have temps closer to normal the 3rd week of July. Oh great, when it's hot anyway.
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