nrgjeff

Middle of this week looks like a doable 3-4 day stretch in the Northern Plains. Tue/Wed feature a LLJ somewhat backed approaching/over the region. Moisture may be JIT on Tuesday but should be there Wednesday. Note that 65F dews is enough up there. I will not attempt specific targets due to mesoscale details, but generally Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska and the Dakotas. Late this week SPC even mentions a short-wave for the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin Thu/Fri. Nebraska and Iowa could be involved. Best forcing looks north, but boundaries may sag south still with just enough flow aloft. Is the season over in the heart of the Alley? Time will tell, but it looks like the North is perking up even if it's a little early compared to climo.

ECMWF and its parallel are finally starting to slow down for Saturday. GFS about to score a coup? NAM also slowed down more at 06Z. Storm mode is still in question with an ongoing MCS that is not forecast to die in the morning. However, in contrast to Friday, dewpoints will be there Saturday. Northeast Kansas is good chasing terrain. NW Missouri is even OK if it crosses the River, but be mindful of crossing well in advance. Plan ahead for both safety reasons and not losing the storm.

One should include reasoning regarding why one agrees or disagrees with data.

On the plus side 2013 and 2016 were good chasing. We don't need high tornado counts. We need tight clusters, but I think everyone knows that. Just a rosy glasses reminder. This week I see the following targets. Thursday DCVZ would be my choice. Action is forecast farther north, but I'll take some geography to increase success rate. Friday could be the first true DL event of the season; or, it could turn into a cluster fast on sub-68 dewpoints. Saturday looks a little bit like Monday in Kansas (OFB); or, CF/DL farther south but with moisture risks. Saturday is still way up in the air 5 days out. Next week hints of a midweek shortwave are noted. Attm it looks like slightly less than Fri/Sat but it's also a week out. Could improve or fall apart but something to watch. Memorial Day weekend looks awful on the GFS ensembles; however, Euro/Cad have the door open for another trough. GFS is trying to latch onto some bearish Pacific forcing, but a slower evolution would favor the Euro/Cad. Time will tell. Nothing looks spectacular, but at least late May chances are there.

While it appears May will lack a big outbreak, I see at least two chase sequences in the next 10 days. Thu-Sat could go from the Front Range to KCMO, with Friday the best day in between. Middle of next week evidence is increasing for another meandering short-wave. It might have better moisture without this Tenn. Valley bowling ball. Hudson Bay low, which clearly hostile, I think is less of a factor than this asinine bowling ball. ERTAF is depressing, but even BA in late May is not a deal killer if one has time and freedom to sniff out mesoscale features. SPC is clearly frustrated, a rare if subtle show of emotion. Those mets are there because the love severe weather. SPC mets are disgusted with this pattern too. On the other hand, when they say "relative to late May" I think they leave the door open for severe. I'm also slightly surprised they go Potential.. instead of Predictability... Enough of the psychology, we still have WSW flow over the Plains. Moisture is a question later this week, but I can deal with JIT (just-in-time moisture) in late May relative to before May 15. Middle of next week agreement on a short-wave is there. Day 10 details can/will change. Moisture may be JIT again, but looks slightly better. Also climo. No outbreaks, but I think 3-5 chase days will happen in the next 10. Might just be 5%, but doable. From The Martian: Might have to science the sh!t out of this!

Baseball meteaphor is great. The 6-10 day is no longer wretched, and a come-back is possible. However mesoscale features must come together, which will be 12-36 hour forecasts. The 11-15 is not a total loss. Looks ridgy, but another trough with a couple short-waves might attempt. If heights do remain AN it will be a challenge. Manufacture runs, small ball, bunt 2%/5% (TOR) strong, and the season may still feature some fun.

Ensembles have quieted down a bit. Choices ae force it in the next 10 days with a trough out West, but troubles in the East; or, wait for more subtle action toward Memorial Day into early June. At least last year we had the Total Eclipse to save a brutal chase year. Agree though, long range can and will probably change.

Overnight deterministic NWP kind of killed the mood. However, Ensembles and Weeklies still look good. Pushing back a weather pattern that eventually happens is not uncommon. Looking under the hood of both Ensembles and Weeklies, clusters show some excellent 5-day periods - even better than the means. Timing is slightly different on those clusters though. Takeaway is a flexible chase vacation is in great shape. Of course set dates may cause sweating. Finally, Indian Ocean convection is waking up which is a chaser friendly MJO signal. Still need to get rid of that awful Central Pac. convection though. I think it is on the down trend, but it ebbs and flows. IO also ebbs/flows, but it is making higher highs and encroaching on Indonesia (good). I use Kochi U. Japan http://weather.is.kochi-u.ac.jp/index-e.html to check out those regions.

You are golden for a few to several days starting May 18. Possible this coming Sun-Tue has a couple meso-scale accidents, but the midweek flow goes weak; so, I would not consider Sun-Tue a day(s) before the day set-up. Starting May 18 looks great! Looking ahead the 6-15 day ensemble charts are about as good as one could ask for in late May. 11-15 day always carries a bigger change risk; however, I'm fairly confident in another trough after the May 19 weekend trough. If both troughs offer 2-4 chase days, that's 4-8 chase days in the 10 day period. Odds (even batting .333) favor great chasing success!

Euro / ECMWF Monthlies look like that all summer. From the June 500 mb pattern I infer fronts (and hopefully late-season severe). July-August looks more like coming in underneath from the Gulf/Southeast Coast. Well, August 500 could be either but climo says underneath. Desert Southwest monsoon is also forecast robust. Relevance here is if easterly waves are juicy too. If things look the same by Memorial Day maybe I will write more in the Seasonal thread. Cheers!

Modoki would be nice for winter enthusiasts. Models seem to warm up Nino 1 and 2 (less Modoki). We'll see; 1-2 are cold right now. Eight months out, hope is a legit forecast. We'll go Modoki El Nino.

Starting with the ECMWF weeklies yesterday, and through overnight modeling, the forecast has become noticeably more friendly to chasing interests. I'm almost giddy, but pinch myself because it is still the 6-15 day forecast. Weeks 2-3 could be good too if one believes the CFS weeklies. Euro weeklies back off; but, CFS has been better at sniffing out subtle ebbs and flows. Plus, you know, week 2-3 climo. Focus on the 6-15 day forecast, the following signals are noted. That awful cut-off low in the East Pac is starting to lift out. Still looking for central Pac convection to chill out. Please make way for a new Kelvin wave out of the IO, and favorable MJO. -AAM is forecast to hold on a little while longer. Some models flip to +AAM by week 3 which is not great; however, that late May climo... Next week timing has been all over the place. 24 hours ago I was thinking late week. Now both the GFS/Euro have storms going most days early week on the returning front (left over from Mother's Day) with a dry line too. Moderate SW flow over a boundary with CAPE, boy I wish that was not week out modelling. Verbatim things calm down May 19-ish but very subject to change. Reload May 21-ish? At any rate, it looks like the next 2-3 weeks are friendly to chase concerns. This weekend could still yield chase events; but, I try to wait until after Mother's Day for family. Good luck to all!

Next week looks more interesting, although forecast wind fields are currently pathetic. Might have a stationary boundary nearby with plenty of CAPE. Later into the season high CAPE can get things going, just the opposite of early season shear. If wind fields could strengthen just a bit, next week would be interesting. Heat ridge nearby makes winds a challenge. One or two days that go from the Plains all the way over here would not shock me. Tis the season in late May.

Weeklies are starting to go that direction, a system digging into our region around mid-May. CFS hints; Euro due at 22:15Z. Whether wind shear and stability line up is a whole other set of questions. On the surface that's exciting news close to home, but it's a mess in the Plains. Short-term, Wednesday Illinois might have enough turning with height if morning storms leave and outflow and instability can return. Probably be messy though. Plus the Marginal into our neck of the woods is the hilly lush jungle of dueling banjos. Flat Delta looks too far west.

I pretty much agree with everything Quincy has above; however, I might not bite yet. Mother's Day chasing requires a particularly good setup to justify the loss of political capital at home. Looking toward May 16-18 the GFS just tried to resurrect the slow train wreck unfolding on Euro and Cad Ensembles. Trouble is WNW flow which would be OK in June but we're not quite there yet. Ensembles are a little more friendly toward May 21 but that is hour 360. MJO might finally lumber into a good phase toward Memorial Day, but that train keeps getting delayed. Despite early season troubles, I feel like it is OK to be picky. At the same time it might go nuts sooner.

My money is always on the Euro, but you know that. GFS can and does occasionally score coups though. 12Z Sunday GFS dropped all the wind shear but it could come back. Also I do not do indices that far out. Just looking at mandatory level charts (850/700/500/250). Turning is still there, considering WNW at 500 the SSW 850 would work. However speeds are totally AWOL. Still a few days out and CAPE will be there. We'll hope! PS. not trying to debate. I'm just watching like a hawk because my interests farther west keep getting delayed. Sigh... If I'm wrong, we can go chasing, Quincy too, and I'll pay all fuel.

I want to be bullish, but we can't even muster a Maginal today May 5. NWP verbatin wind fields are a mess Friday; but, it is May! If all else fails, Go Preds!

CFS had a bad run as did the 00Z GFS. However the 06Z GFS came back around to Euro Ensembles. Consensus still looks good. Euro weeklies look good. Just hold on Thursday night, lol! Ensembles/clusters all point to increasing confidence week of May 14. Week of May 21 is likely on the table too. Well, also climo. Week of May 28 and first week of June have excellent climo. Cannot punt a season based on April, or one quiet 5-days in early May. 2018 is waking up, and I think the ruckus is just beginning!

Severe weather may return to the CONUS the week of May 14. My thoughts on the current week may be in Central/West, if they stop nitpicking each other. Our sub-forum region is so much better! MJO is forecast to return to a severe wx phase the middle of May. AAM should remain negative, another ingredient to leverage that MJO. Week 3 on both weeklies shows a new Pacific jet chipping away at the week 2 West ridge. End of Euro/Cad ensembles shows the new trough starting, GFS could be behind the curve. During week, 3 I expect a West trough and East ridge. Couple energy vendors are pretty confident about that pattern. Their concern is temperature. My concern is storms, lol! While the Plains dry line may be active the week of May 14, it's one of those deals where the warm front could be active well to the east, into our Tennessee Valley or Ohio Valley. Mid-May is the season for both to go at once.

Regardless next week still looks fine upstairs. Challenge is to get the moisture. Wind direction and speed with height looks excellent. Looking ahead, at the weeklies and indices (MJO, AAM), looks like a lull the week of May 7. Of course in May a mesoscale accident is always possible, but appears another East trough will be in the wake of next week's action. Week of May 14 and/or May 21 could feature a new West trough. Much of that is based on indices. Weeklies have hints of new jet energy chipping away at the West ridge (from the May 7 week). Back when May was weeks 4-6 there was no reason to panic. Weekly's accuracy improves around week 3, and fortunately they now look a little more like late May climo.

For severe enthusiasts it would be nice to get warming in regions 1-2. Right now it's in 3. For next winter enthusiasts, yeah Nino 3.4 warm works.

GFS has come around to the Euro upstairs. 12Z has WSW at 200/500 mb which is a great contrast to those bowling balls earlier in the season. We'll see about the moisture, but at least the directional and speed shear (forecast) is significantly better than we have seen all year. Yes this is a good synoptic pattern. Skeptics look at the charts. Now surface details are still up in the air, but calling the forecast synoptic scale good/great is very rudimentary pattern recognition.

Pattern may open the door for severe in our Region about a week into May, iff the system does not dig into a cold bowling ball. In May you'd think we'd have a warm sector! Ensembles have a system traversing the CONUS. Weekly charts have a warmer look week 2 but an East trough week 3. I infer the transition is our system; so, ensembles and weeklies are somewhat in sync. MJO is forecast to go into more favorable phases deeper into May if the GLAAM stays low/Nina which may be a tough forecast 3-4 weeks out. If the MJO forecast is right it could bring one more chance to the Southeast. However, the above signal shifts into the Plains late May. If either the MJO or AAM fail, May could revert back to the quiet cool regime.

Might be a narrow window of time for sups. It is the High Plains. Quality moisture is tardy; so, cells may become outflow dominant quickly and/or line out.

No reason to panic. I agree with Andy and Quincy it is quiet at the moment but it is also early. OK, you are down 12-4 in the opening minutes of a basketball game. Do you panic? Of course not! Sure the score is 3:1 but it is also only 8 points with over 30 minutes to play. We are in the first quarter NBA or first 5-8 minutes college. It's April 19. Relax and smoke some pot tomorrow. So the weeklies are bad. They are useful out to about 3 weeks in spring/fall. The only reason we have 4-6 weeks is for the depth of winter or peak of summer, gauging persistence or not. If not, do not use for reliable changes any time of year. Again in spring, do not worry about the 4-6 even if it is persistence. CFS dashboard seems quiet around May 7 considering what its own weekly chart shows. From the weekly chart I infer a southwest low. Probably not chase material, unidirectional bowling ball verbatim, but still a system. Can't forecast 3 weeks out, but one can cast doubt on the very quiet dashboard. Analogs include some very awful years, but analogs are just one tool which happen to average out things. One can have a low tornado count, with few systems and no big outbreaks, but still a couple sequences worth chasing. That might not assure local chasers, but a chase vacationer only needs one good sequence. If down 8 points with a minute to go, maybe panic like some people are now. However it is April 19 not May 19. While we lack evidence for an active season (trend, weeklies, analogs) we also lack evidence to give up (early, low 4-6 week skill). Just enjoy April 20 even without severe weather.