nrgjeff

I got a thread going. Agree with everything in SPC Mesoscale Discussion 208 just above.

Mid levels look a little warm (SPC notes poor lapse rates / neutral heights) and no clear 2nd boundary is noted. Guess there's always the differential heating between CHA and HSV/BNA. High resolution models show small cells, indicative of warm mid-levels. Perhaps a few storms can get rooted and going, with less coverage. Also 45 knots shear (vs 60 kt) could be slightly less fast storm motion than previous events. Still looks fast though. Sometimes less coverage in Dixie Alley means less sloppy, but it depends on the cause. This situation could still be meh/mess, but with less rainfall (good). In the Plains less (slop) can mean more (quality). In Dixie less is usually less. Almost like snow, Dixie seems like all or nothing. Some statistics actually back up that feeling. Remover the big outbreaks and Dixie is less active than the Plains. Keep the outbreaks and they are equal. This is no outbreak, so I think all is good.

Yes, and we storm chasers are excited. OK, cautiously optimistic.. Another trend is our friend deal: Central Plains had a good snow year. If the active storm track continues, lifting north with the jet stream, it puts the Central Plains in severe wx later in spring. KC had the first good snow winter in years. Will Wichita and others have an exciting spring? Note I've lived in both KC and ICT so I mention them by name. Applies to the whole area. Rock Chalk Jayhawk!

Congratulations Jax and your son! Make Gymnastics great again, lol. So what y'all are saying is Tennessee and Auburn are like Kansas. Depends on the day. We all blow chunks on the road. Play excellent at home. Neutral I think is not bad. Home crowd is missed; but, freshmen are not subject to a hostile crowd either. The intense energetic team just has to show up. Kentucky must be frustrated with the results, missing a share of the regular season title. Figure UK would rather their rival UT win, to get a share of the SEC title. As usual I look for Kentucky to make a deep run in the Tournament. From the main spring thread, regarding cold head fakes the past winter. Yeah it's like winning a great game at home, only to get crushed on the road!

I agree with Carvers (last two posts now) that March may close out cooler than normal. However it'll be close after all the sloshing around. Then I look for April warmer than normal. Euro weeklies last Thursday keep it cool a few weeks; however, they have been unreliable for months. Latest Euro ensembles end milder, and Euro monthly is mild April; perhaps weeklies will follow warmer tonight. CFS warms up April; it's been able to sniff out the shorter cold periods. CrankyWx is probably right about the Pac jet. A look at the Japanese satellite shows convection already blowing up again in the Indian Ocean, bound for the warm maritime continent. All that junk in colder phases at/east of the Dateline should have a fleeting impact only. Oh yeah the door is about shut on SSW. Upper strato is trying to warm. However the lower layers still have a positive wind. We're good. Start spring baby!

Now a little good news, hopefully... Columbus AFB, Miss. and adjacent radars show some bright banding this morning (Monday). Dual polarization confirms it's mixed precip aloft. Radar estimated (and human estimated) rainfall from the bright reflectivity is probably high. I figure totals are down around a quarter inch. Monday rain was always forecast light. Midweek system even improved a bit. Looks like it'll be moving just enough to keep totals 1-2 inches. Few days ago looked like another 3-4 in. This pattern anything can happen, but think positive.

Saturday March 9, 11:30 central time: Differential heating boundary is evident in North Mississippi, noted by 70s temps south and thicker clouds north. This is south of the synoptic WF which is in Kentucky. The Miss boundary should lift to the Tennessee border, perhaps into West Tenn. As the Arkansas front/dry line approaches, it should create intersecting boundaries, Low level convergence is forecast to increase in MS/TN when the Arkansas front approaches. Conceptual and some numerical models have slightly higher storm relative helicity near the lifting MS/TN boundary. SPC and some CAMs have started to highlight this more southern boundary intersection. Compared to the Kentucky triple point, storms should move slower in the Mid South, esp down in Mississippi. Upper winds are strong both areas, but not quite as much South. Storms are a mess in the Delta right now. We'll see if the line breaks up a bit into Mississippi later this afternoon. We can do without human impacts either way. Perhaps the strongest upper dynamics will outrun surface features, but still plenty of winds aloft into evening.

Kansas basketball this season has been like winter in Dixie. Hopes were high early, and then, well you know.

1. I knew Tennessee would win at home, but I was surprised by the decisive fashion. High energy defense is so important to disrupt opponents. 3 shooting is a tough spot at times. Especially against the zone UT needs to be patient and penetrate. Yup, wear 'em down. At any rate a 1 seed would be justified IMHO. Right match-ups, with intense disruptive D, and UT is Final Four. Wrong match-up, well that's why they call it March Madness. Rooting for the Vols. 2. Kansas is probably looking at a 2-3 seed. They are talking 4-seed but I hope it turns out better, with or without the Big 12 Reg. Season Championship. Always the tournament in KC. Loss of Azubuike is significant, along with other hurdles, but KU keeps fighting. Not being a 1 seed might ease pressure, but again it's about match-ups. ADDITION: Kentucky should make the Final Four. Young teams gel late, and they are playing well. (At UT was home team revenge.) Cal usually has them ready for tournament time, regardless of seed. I still remember Cal was complaining about a seeding, and at the same time giving much respect to Wichita St. Nice! 3. True studies show false alarms do not contribute to warning complacency. Any studies on social media exhaustion though? Weather is so over-hyped. Everyone posts clown maps and tornadoes like the Day 7 model is money. People also need to know the difference between a watch and warning. Watch the weather but go about normal business. Warning = act now! On the flip side, social media can be a positive to confirm personal danger. 4. The thought of waiting for the first fall cold front disgusts me. I love summer, but not endless hot humid madness (with July lows) until October. Here's to a comfortable spring!

Sunday tornadoes were an example of intersecting boundaries again. While the synoptic WF made it into the Carolinas, the former coastal front became another warm front in South Georgia. Coldest air hanged back in Tennessee, even as the cold front had made it to eastern Alabama. Hence, arctic air did not surge into the risk area. Alabama cold front acted more like a pre-frontal trough, with the coldest air back in Tenn. Georgia warm front intersected Bama trough in Lee County. Damaging tornadoes continued east from there along the WF. Other tornadoes were in the free warm sector. SPC did a good job going hatched in spite for CAMs slop/lines. Of course our thoughts and prayers are with the victims. Next chance of Dixie Alley severe is back in our region, but Day 6 nobody needs to worry yet. If moisture returns (currently questionable after arctic front) the Mid South should see a potent short-wave on Saturday. Main storm system ejects north. Southern energy is progged however, including gradual turning with height. (remember just day 6 models) Later next week, out around Day 9, is another possible day. A little more moisture may be available. First system would start that process, if its front does not get to the Gulf Coast. Both of these could be nothing though. Just things to watch in March.

Well at SPC Broyles goes ENH for Sunday southeast Alabama into parts of southwest Georgia, including 10% hatched tornado. It's aggressive but some CAMs have broken cells. I'm not too interested. Terrain is mostly poor except south side of ENH. The 700 mb level offers wind direction challenges, except farther ahead of the trough. I suppose best cells would be ahead of the main line. Positive tilt just does not give me that feeling. Though 925 mb may be less veered ahead of the line. We'll see. Probably should post in the Southeast Region but I have not been in here for 3-4 days. Happy weekend!

Hells bells. I'm siting in Chattanooga wishing I'd rolled out to Florence, AL. MCS coming out of Arkansas may be messy. However Mississippi and northwest Bama are destabilizing along and south of an outflow boundary OFB. I now believe this OFB will be a focus for enhanced low level shear when storms reach it. Even more bullish, descrete cells in the free warm sector (Mississippi) heading into the said OFB would likely ramp up upon arrival. Not sure for how long, because it's stable on the other side. Still, it is a focus area. Quasi dry line coming from central Arkansas may still refire behind the MCS. However I'm not a fan of right on the DL if a pre-frontal trough is available and looks promising. Appears the latter may be on the Mississippi River as I type Noon Central Time. If I had departed on time I might target intersection of this pre-frontal trough and outflow boundary 2nd paragraph. Oh well, plenty of college hoops on today, lol!

00Z CAMs (convective allowing models) have a couple different solutions. NAM high-res focuses on the quasi dry line coming out of Arkansas. ARW version of the WRF has storms going up on a pre-frontal trough a little farther east, starting in West Tennessee and Mississippi. HRRR wants to light up both. Agree that seems a little too aggressive. Adding to low-level shear should be a morning rain induced boundary lifting north from Alabama into Middle Tennessee. Should be more stable north and east of it. The quasi dry line storms might be a little forced, perhaps a broken line, but with a few rotating. Deep level shear is impressive. I call it a quasi dry line because colder air lags behind with a separate wind shift. If the pre-frontal trough becomes dominant, the storms could be more beefy and discrete, but perhaps sloppy. Low level shear is even a little better there. However storms would run into more stable air sooner. Again I really don't think both will go this set-up. Happened before in Dixie, and the Plains for that matter. However Saturday the instability axis may not be wide enough to get both going. Have to wait until morning to decide which one, or even nowcast it later.

Friday Excessive Rainfall Outlook is upgraded to High for parts of North Alabama, southern Middle Tennessee, northeast Mississippi and other adjacent areas of Tenn.

Saturday severe risk has held up with data today. Just a look at the surface chart and visible satellite shows the Gulf air boundary is onshore and moving north. It will stall in the Deep South Friday as heavy rain pounds the Tennessee Valley. Then it is forecast to lift north Saturday, but probably become a little diffuse as the synoptic warm front lifts to the Ohio Valley. A couple days ago, I saw some veer-back-veer VBV on upper air forecasts around 700 mb. Most of the VBV is gone now. Forecast hodographs have that big but gentle curve up through 200 mb. Believe the presence of a more defined southern short-wave has created the more textbook upper air charts. Check of forecast helicity index confirms the drill down (or up) through the forecast charts. Instability remains a question. Severe weather really does not. This forced set-up will at least have a lot of straight line winds. Saturday morning MCS is generally forecast to lift northeast. However it could continue straight east and contaminate the warm sector. MCS lifting out and leaving behind an outflow boundary would be more favorable for tornadoes, iff enough breaks of sun can destabilize things. Looks like a good one to track from home. Could be high water spots on roads. Storm motion will be fast. Visibility may be low with tight T/Td spreads. Terrain is hit and miss. Couple huge college basketball games are on Saturday. While wind shear parameters are solid, it may just be forced winds without more instability. Of course the door is open for a greater tornado threat though. Separately, those Excessive Rainfall charts might be of interest in the Event thread for heavy rain and flooding. No worries about today, but I bet they stay robust next update.

Rare and exciting when the Atmosphere actually looks like the textbook. Neat stuff!

Storm Prediction Center introduces 15% for Saturday. Yeah after about 4-5 waves tugging on Gulf Moisture, it could indeed be far enough north. Best dynamics may go over Midwest, but enough southern stream energy lingers over Dixie if the moisture is here. Looking ahead deeper into March, ECMWF weeklies (verbatim) tee up severe weather. Trough returns to the West with SER. We'll see..

Duds are not too discouraging this early in the season. Same week in March and I'm going off, lol! That said, I will be ready for day-of decisions if I'm not hammered at work. Next weekend would be convenient.

I have a feeling 2019 will be an active year. Atmosphere often tips its hand early. See if we can get a few more early days. Plains may end up being the most active, so I'm not mongering for Dixie. Storm track has been quite active. Low press likes to track over the Ozarks this winter. Shift that north later in spring for Central Plains action. Mid-South portion of Dixie could be seasonably active early while lows are still going through the Ozarks.

Looks like two boundaries, both in their CWA. Synoptic is north of MEM. Another sits south of MEM. Could be a fun afternoon. Still I agree with their reasons limiting the event. Probably just isolated gusty winds. Heavy rain is the other consideration.

Arkansas remains the prime areas IMHO. Obviously it is not chasable so I'm relaxing here in Chatty. Shear will be there. Instability depends on convective evolution. Few CAMs have cyclical supercells in western Arkansas, marching across the state. Others, like the NAM, have too much other stuff in the Delta. The latter solution cuts off the cells up on the boundary intersections in western Ark. Arctic air is another factor. If that air is right up on the boundaries, cancel supercells. What a mess. Must be February!

An ongoing severe wx thread is buried somewhere. Feel free to bump it. One can also start an event thread should the need arise. On the winter side, if that West trough settles in a little more Central and forecast it could get interesting. Otherwise, yeah track severe.

Sounds good to me. I'd rather travel to the Plains than try to chase Dixie. Euro monthlies have a chaser friendly look to May. BN heights Southwest and AN heights Great Lakes. Give me more of that southwest flow. QPF also hints dry line fires west of I-35 which is the prime chase terrain. Yes please! As for ENSO, one could infer the TNI is trying to set up right between Nino 1+2 and 4. However it's evolving from weak El Nino. Bullish TNI is usually from La Nina transition. We'll see though. PDO is also trying for a slightly better look.

Forget the litter box.. For southeast Tennessee, this winter is when the cat misses with the turd and sprays pee all over the room.

Fortunately I can't see either of them. 2012 was blowtorch all winter, not valid this year. 1988 was the first really infamous SER drought, quite unlikely this year. Chiefs got to the AFCC (see my prior post). Time for renewed optimism in severe wx too! UPDATE: Yeah action west of I-35 would be great. See below.