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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff
    Yeah at least Gregg Marshall got to the Final Four before Koch Industries bankrolled his salary at Wichita St. Marshall makes more than most Power 5 Conference coaches. Never hurts to ask! My severe wx thoughts are in Southeast due to the target area mostly south of our Region.
  2. nrgjeff
    Palm Sunday is the elephant in the room, so I'll address it. It's Day 7. Done. OK seriously, the GFS verbatim only shows ENH due to unidirectional winds, lots of rain, and likely coastal MCS. ECMWF verbatim is MDT no sugar coating it. However neither are high, thanks to moisture concerns, and possibly energy ejecting too far north. Still Day 7 so lots can change. Might end up Marginal, lol. Ways to get there include heavy rain on unidirectional winds or some sort of Gulf MCS. Little closer in I figure Thursday will have moisture issues. Upper dynamics displaced too far north. Maybe low-top Illinois Indiana but that's another subforum region. And today? I think those Gulf thunderstorms don't qualify as enough for an MCS bust. SPC leans toward it weakening (MD 287) which would keep North Alabama in business later. CAMs are weak with low level shear; but, pattern recognition shows outflow boundary east of surface low. Dixie gonna Dixie? UPDATE: Central Alabama BHM south, which is out of our regional subforum. NCAA Final is my evening plan.
  3. nrgjeff
    Congrats trip to Reno! Figure your son's gymnastics is more important anyway. Still the refs blew a double dribble committed by Virginia. Would have never been in the 3-point foul situation in the first place. Yeah, it was a foul, but never should have gotten to that point. NCAA continues to lose credibility for many.
  4. nrgjeff
    Come Monday it'll be alright. Come Monday I'll be holding shear tight. -Jimmy Buffet with some Jeff at the end. Sunday still looks like a mess. Storms in Middle Tenn are trying to create their own LLJ but warming 700 mb will end the party. Just hope the non-severe junk holds off for my Sunday outdoor plans in Chatty. Monday looks intriguing in northwest Georgia, but that terrain! Low level shear should be good east of the surface low and triple point. Upper shear is suspect. Reminds me of June around here. IDK if it's worth a chase. Maybe hang out on the view deck of Ft Mountain State Park and hope to see something.. without getting struck by lightning! Might be better to watch the NCAA National Championship on Monday. Go Texas Tech!
  5. nrgjeff
    Late April we hope that awful convection in the West Pac dies. Some models forecast the IO to refire, which puts the North Pac ridge in the correct place for a West USA trough. Unfortunately those week 4-6 forecasts have practically zero correlation to actuals. We hope though! Plus May climo is trough West. As for this weekend: NCAA games and Chattanooga Football Club.
  6. nrgjeff
    HRRR tries to get supercells going on the warm front in Mississippi on Saturday. No other CAM (I've seen) agrees. Warm mid-levels. Erratic upper level winds (bad hodograph). Bulk shear is good and so is instability. However I'm real skeptical of anything but a messy blob. Good news for folks who don't like intense severe. Though some wind/hail is likely.
  7. nrgjeff
    Women's program also fell harder than the Soviet Union. Hopefully the new AD helps in all these matters including football. That last guy was a jackass. He was so toxic at K-State (KU in state rival) that we actually felt bad for K-State. Glad he's out of Tenn.
  8. nrgjeff
    Sunday the ECMWF shows another Gulf MCS keeping Dixie Alley quiet. ECMWF continues a Texas MCS which might not exactly dive to the coast. ECMWF upper levels are suspect, but match the surface scenario. The following is based on the GFS/NAM. 'Murica yeah! The 200/300 mb level winds are little weak and erratic; however, 500 mb is robust and more west than south. Otherwise surface to 700 mb shows pretty good turning. Hodograph is a mess above 500 mb; but, it looks great from 700 mb down. Instability is forecast across Mississippi and Alabama into Georgia. I'm not sure about Tenn. Pattern recognition and some models have a boundary lifting through Alabama. It's left over from the Thursday/Friday system. Front never makes to the Coast. It should lift back as a warm front with quality moisture. Sunday is being monitored for a possible chase. If the ECMWF is right I'll instead be relaxing with family in Chattanooga, lol!
  9. nrgjeff
    Thursday looks like a mess with JIT moisture and a monster MCS cutting off everything anyway. Weekend (Sunday?) looks better. Moisture will already be in place as the Friday front never clears the Gulf. Upper winds may have VBV issues; but, at least it'll be more unstable.
  10. nrgjeff
    Tennessee could beat Virginia if UT could control the tempo. I'm disappointed. Like you said Purdue was just rolling at that time. Who had Auburn and Texas Tech?
  11. nrgjeff
    Thursday severe weather is possible in southern Mississippi. Models forecast adequate speed and directional shear. Appears moisture will be there in time, especially I-20 south. I would focus on the lifting boundary showed by both conceptual models and numerical models. Morning rain is forecast in northern Mississippi. Should keep a lifting warm-front like feature defined. Pre-frontal trough comes in from the west ahead of the cold front, key for robust severe. Right on the cold front is usually trash. Prefrontal trough can be better. Intersection of those boundaries is currently forecast in central Mississippi. More rain would push it toward I-20. Less rain would put northern Mississippi in play.
  12. nrgjeff
    Low and behold Auburn wins the bracket of death. Congratulations Auburn going their first Final Four! While Kansas was weakened, KU can still play very well. Auburn also beat UNC and Kentucky, both at full strength IIRC. Finally Auburn did that with an injury vs UK. One could argue Auburn also beat the officials that game. As a Jayhawk, Auburn going to the Final Four makes our exit easier to swallow. KU lost to a Final Four team not a fluke. Ditto for our missing the Conference Championship to a Final Four team Texas Tech. I'm hoping for a Texas Tech Auburn Final. I like MSU and Izzo; but, the other two have never been to a Final Four. Auburn can definitely beat UVA. I'm not so sure about TT and MSU. Hoping Tech can represent the Big 12 well!
  13. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Probably climate change as we lose the ocean sinks. Oops wrong sub-forum! We are still behind the ENSO spring predictability barrier. Who really knows what will happen next winter? In the mid-term the MJO is a disaster right now for severe. Japan's Himawari satellite loop shows nothing good either. Hopefully it does change by mid-April.
  14. nrgjeff
    Glad I stayed home and watched basketball this past weekend. Upcoming Thursday I'm not nearly as impressed as SPC. Just-in-time moisture fails in April, kind of like Fed-Ex drivers running you off the highway rushing their JIT deliveries. Wind shear (speed and directional) is good southern half of Mississippi. However that's almost out of our Region and more Southeast sub-forum. Hopefully Wichita State will be playing in the NIT Final Thursday; so, I'll likely be home.
  15. nrgjeff
    Nashville sounds bullish. Moisture return is slower than models have though. Waze app (Google maps) reports repeating multiple accidents I-24 West of Chattanooga. I'm not sure it's rubbernecking, road rage, or both. Regardless I'm not dealing with that on my way. No storm chase today. NCAA starts in a couple hours anyway.
  16. nrgjeff
    Parts of Chattanooga and/or Hixson had hail on Monday. I was out of town though. Skiing Utah! Back home now.
  17. nrgjeff
    Moisture return is still meh. However temps will get well into the 70s. Perhaps it's a good trade-off. Limit tornado risk, but good visibility if anything happens. Upper winds are OK. Low level turning is barely at threshold (IMHO). It's borderline, but it's also almost April.
  18. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    For severe, per TNI, we could use warmer 1.2 and milder 3.4. Otherwise early severe was a head fake. I still think this KW and other factors (persistent Heartland storm track / Baja SSTs) will bring more action.
  19. nrgjeff
    Congratulations Auburn. If that unconscious shooting and tenacious D continues, Auburn can beat UNC and UK; but, I agree it's the bracket of death. KU couldn't get anything to fall. Wasn't altitude, FG shots were short not long. Tennessee can beat Virginia if the right team shows up. First Iowa and likely Purdue. Go Vols!
  20. nrgjeff
    March 14 has a thread in Tennessee Valley. I called it Pi Day being a little silly. At first we thought most of the severe weather would be in our region. As it evolved south of the Tenn Valley people just kept going on the thread. Sorry if we hijacked your region. At any rate, it is a fairly interesting thread. Posts show the progression of thought from forecast to nowcasts to reports. Cheers!
  21. nrgjeff
    Office should be a ghost town after lunch as Tennessee plays at 2:45 Eastern. Tomorrow Auburn and Kansas meet in SLC, for the right to play the Sweet 16 in Kansas City. If Auburn is unconscious from 3-point land again, Kansas is doomed. If Kansas defense shows up KU should be able to score enough in and out of the paint. Assuming UT wins today the Vols would face either Iowa or Cincy on Sunday. Iowa might be better considering the location for Cincy, and Cincy is tenacious. I think location is less important than play style. Unlike the SEC Final, UT will have more rest (games 2/3 days vs 3-straight). After the come-from-behind with UK, I think Tennessee can reach the Sweet 16. Weather looks dreadfully boring the next 7-10 days (no moisture for severe and/or positive tilt) so I really hope we both advance to the following weekend. Jax probably wishes for Auburn the same thing for the same reason, lol! Daughter has spring break so I may not be on the board much. Everybody enjoy March Madness!
  22. nrgjeff
    We've graduated to Predictability too low. Euro is not as into it. Either has moisture issues or positive tilt. I can understand hesitating there especially day 7. Overall North America pattern is a little flaky too. Just as well we can watch a bunch of basketball before chasing.
  23. nrgjeff
    Tennessee could have been physically tired after Kentucky. Explains errant shooting and difficulty defending Auburn's spread out attack. I really doubt Tennessee was mentally hung over after the big Kentucky game; everybody knows one more game. Probably more physical. Still, hats off to Auburn for running and gunning. Yes, they are fun to watch! I'm at a loss for Kansas choking in KC which should be like a second home court. It's not the Phog (Allen FH) but it it's friendly. Some fans wished K-State was the opponent, to settle the regular season split and spoil a bit of their reg season title. Maybe KU just was not interested in Iowa St. KU had more points in the paint, but every ISO jumper fell. Then KU defense went soft as usual when behind. In contrast to KU giving up when behind, I was proud of Tennessee hanging in there when Kentucky opened up a several point lead. UT does not like to play from behind, but they did Saturday. Kansas starts in SLC. Sweet 16 would be back in KC, but Auburn will probably beat KU and goto KC instead. Cheers!
  24. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Actually I think the North Pacific would keep severe season active this year more than the TNI. Upon reviewing the paper at work. TNI is not the driver attm. However the slightly -PDO may be a driver. Just depends on how the PNA evolves with spring wavelengths. I would think the typical migration from South to Plains, unless the pattern breaks down. Chasers want this current week pattern to be temporary. Get back to southwest flow. On the other hand, a break is nice considering all the flooding from here to Nebraska.
  25. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Let's just keep 1.2 a little cool for severe season and TNI. After that I don't care, lol.
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